NFL Picks and Predictions Week 17: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
Well, we survived the weirdest week of the NFL season yet. When the Pittsburgh Steelers blow a must-win game against a freshly awakened Ryan Mallett and Bill Belichick's Patriots seemingly make a horrible decision at an overtime coin toss, you have to throw out the entire slate.
We went through an uncharacteristic gambling slump in Week 16, but we have plenty of room to bounce back in the last week of the regular season. After going 5-7-1 in the overall slate, we'll survive with a 53.7 percent hit-rate against the spread for the season. Remember, anything above 52.5 percent is cash money.
Unfortunately, our formerly 60-plus percent Lock of the Week picks dipped down to 58.6 percent after a 1-4 effort from some of the most consistent teams in the NFL.
We'll break down point-spread selections for every single game in Week 17, including the opening line, current line and what each team still has to play for as motivation. The final week of the regular season is bittersweet. On one hand, we won't have full slates of games after Sunday, but the bonus is that we don't have to watch the Tennessee Titans anymore.
All picks ATS: 113-97-7 (.537)
Locks of the Week ATS: 47-33-1 (.586)
New England @ Miami
1 of 17
Opening line: New England @ Miami (+8)
Current line: New England @ Miami (+10)
What these teams are playing for: The New England Patriots are trying to earn home-field advantage in the AFC, while the Miami Dolphins are out of playoff contention.
Alright, let's reverse engineer this line. The New England Patriots were three-point favorites on the road against the New York Jets in Week 16, a game the Jets won by three points. Against Miami this week, they are 10-point favorites. That means 1) the Patriots would be 16-point favorites over the Dolphins in New England and 2) the Jets would be nine-point favorites over the Dolphins in New York.
Despite New England's 5-2 record on the road, they are just 3-4 against the spread as the visiting team.
This line is just too high for my taste. Double-digit underdogs are some of the safest bets you can make, let alone a home dog of 10 points. Vegas knows the Dolphins haven't held up their end of the bargain this season, as they've gone 1-6 against the spread at home, but they also know they are going to get a giant portion of the ticket on a motivated New England in Week 17, so they've elevated this line about five points too high. The ugly picks are often the most intelligent ones.
Since Joe Philbin was fired in October, the Dolphins have only lost once by 10 or more points at home, and it was against a well-rested Tony Romo during a Dallas Cowboys statement game. All the numbers say to lean on Miami even though your heart tells you to ride with Tom Brady.
The pick: Miami (+10)
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
2 of 17
There are quarterback concerns on both sides, with three players potentially starting for the Indianapolis Colts. Zach Mettenberger will start for the Tennessee Titans because Marcus Mariota is injured. Because of the the quarterback issue on Indianapolis' side, there isn't a live line up.
Jacksonville @ Houston
3 of 17
Opening line: Jacksonville @ Houston (-5.5)
Current line: Jacksonville @ Houston (-7)
What these teams are playing for: The Houston Texans are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are out of playoff contention.
The Houston Texans would have to go through a very unfortunate set of events to miss out on the AFC South title, but if they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, they clinch the banner and get to rest for the remainder of the day. What I find interesting is how many points they are favored by.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-3-1 against the spread this season despite a 1-6 record straight up because the public never wants to put money on this squad. Because of that factor, their opponents' lines often get inflated.
The interesting thing is when the Texans do win games, they tend to do so by multiple scores. In their eight wins this season, five have come by more than seven points. With that being said, though, I think their focus will be more on staying healthy than running up the score. Blake Bortles can throw his way into competitive games as long as he doesn't give up an interception touchdown to the other squad.
With players such as Jadeveon Clowney missing this game, it's hard to convince me that Houston should be favored by multiple scores, but this is the matchup I feel least confident about in this week's slate. Between Week 7 and Week 15 of 2015, the Jaguars lost no games by two scores. Last week was the exception, not the rule. It's only happened four times this year in 15 games.
The pick: Jacksonville (+7)
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Detroit @ Chicago
4 of 17
Opening line: Detroit @ Chicago (-1.5)
Current line: Detroit @ Chicago (PK)
What these teams are playing for: Absolutely nothing.
Vegas' recent love for the Detroit Lions is going too far now. Sure, they've won five of their last seven, but only two of those games were on the road, and they're 3-4 against the spread away from Ford Field. Straight up, they are 2-5 on the road in 2015.
The Lions may be improving, but we are forgetting Matthew Stafford's home-away split is historically one of the greatest in the sport's history. For whatever reason, Detroit never travels well, even when it plays in warm weather or in a domed stadium.
The Chicago Bears are the better team in this game, even if they are only 1-6 straight up at home this season. Most of that has to do with the teams they have played in Soldier Field. At some point, strength of schedule does matter. They played the Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Broncos, San Francisco 49ers and Washington Redskins at home this year. There's a good chance five of those seven teams will end up in the playoffs and that six of the seven finish at or above .500 on the year. The only blemish is San Francisco, a team they took into overtime because of kicker flaws.
Jay Cutler, John Fox, Vic Fangio and Adam Gase cap off a surprisingly competent season with a divisional win.
The pick: Chicago (PK)
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
5 of 17
Opening line: Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-7)
Current line: Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-9)
What these teams are playing for: The Cincinnati Bengals are fighting for a first-round bye, while the Baltimore Ravens are out of playoff contention.
Hold up. So the Cincinnati Bengals, who have done well under AJ McCarron, would only be favored by one point on the road if they played the Baltimore Ravens, who will be starting Ryan Mallett again this week? There's some real fishy stuff going on here.
The Bengals are still competing for a rest week, and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is trying to play himself into another head-coaching gig. You think they're going to let up the gas? McCarron has played significant time in three games this season, and his lowest passer rating has been 87.8 during that stretch, including a season-long mark of 95.1.
I'm sold on the fact McCarron can lead this team into the playoffs. We have a three-game sample. Mallett, who has only been in Baltimore for the holidays, has a one-game sample showing he's not a hindrance to the overall roster. You must also remember Cincinnati's defensive line and defensive back units are much better than the Pittsburgh Steelers' were last week. If we're going by one-game samples, then the Landry Jones Steelers are better than the Carson Palmer Cardinals.
If the public zigs, you zag. The Ravens shocked the world. The Bengals lost a close game. We're riding with Cincinnati.
The pick: Cincinnati (-7)
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
6 of 17
Opening line: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+8.5)
Current line: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+11)
What these teams are playing for: The Pittsburgh Steelers are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Cleveland Browns are out of playoff contention.
So what in the world happened in Week 16? I never know what to do with the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are more volatile than Mike Tomlin's decisions of when to go for two and when to just kick a PAT.
They lost to Ryan Mallett, a third-string quarterback who was booted by the Houston Texans midseason and had only been on the Baltimore Ravens' roster for two weeks. This is after their own third-string quarterback, Landry Jones, beat the Arizona Cardinals, one of four real Super Bowl contenders, by double digits.
Austin Davis is going to be starting for the Cleveland Browns because Johnny Manziel is out with concussion symptoms. Manziel also made headline news by taking a video of himself, a Mike Evans jersey, a Four Loko and music by Future Hendrix.
There's chaos in this game. Whenever there's chaos, I want to avoid assumptions. This game assumes a double-digit handicap for a road team. That shouldn't happen in the NFL, no matter the opponent. The Steelers, who may not even be a playoff team, shouldn't be favored by 11 points on a neutral field.
The pick: Cleveland (+11)
Philadelphia @ New York Giants
7 of 17
Opening line: Philadelphia @ New York Giants (-3.5)
Current line: Philadelphia @ New York Giants (-3.5)
What these teams are playing for: Absolutely nothing
It appears that the players have taken over in the City of Brotherly Love. For whatever reason, the Philadelphia Eagles have decided to cut Chip Kelly before the final week of the regular season. Kelly has proved his worth, earning two double-digit win seasons for Philadelphia in his first two years and making Nick Foles into an all-world quarterback from a statistical standpoint, but it appears as though his "culture" attempts ended up backfiring.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL media, DeMarco Murray, the team's star free-agent signing, was undercutting Kelly behind his back to the team's owner, Jeffrey Lurie. We've seen plenty of former Eagles take shots at Kelly as well.
On paper, these teams are about even. With that being said, when the players get a win from an organization standpoint, their moral is usually high and they perform beyond expectations. Remember the hype surrounding Dan Campbell in Miami? The Eagles only have to rally around Pat Shurmur for one game.
The pick: Philadelphia (+3.5)
New York Jets @ Buffalo
8 of 17
Opening line: New York Jets @ Buffalo (+1.5)
Current line: New York Jets @ Buffalo (+3)
What these teams are playing for: The New York Jets are trying to lock up a playoff spot, while the Buffalo Bills have no playoff implications.
The New York Jets are three-point favorites on the road against the Buffalo Bills, an in-division rival. That means that in New York, they'd be at least nine-point favorites. That number, from a power-ranking standpoint, is just too high.
Sure, the Jets are motivated to win the game for playoff purposes, but Bills coach Rex Ryan has an edge too. Ryan loves big games, and having a shot at ruining his former franchise's playoff hopes ranks up there in best-case scenarios for an outstanding coaching effort from his side. Buffalo has the most complicated running game in the league, which should help against the Jets' strong defensive front.
Of all the morning games, this is the big-screen candidate if you have multiple televisions.
The pick: Buffalo (+3)
Washington @ Dallas
9 of 17
Opening line: Washington @ Dallas (-4)
Current line: Washington @ Dallas (-3.5)
What these teams are playing for: The Washington Redskins have already locked up the fourth seed in the NFC as champions of the East, while the Dallas Cowboys are out of playoff contention.
There's no reason for the Redskins to fight a full fight in this one. The Dallas Cowboys aren't in full force, but they should be awarded about 2.5 points for home-field advantage alone, and I think their current starters are going to be better than the backups that Washington should throw out in the second half. It's not a home game for the Redskins, so they shouldn't feel obligated to show a single thing in this game for the fans in the stadium or at home.
Have your starters go out there, get warm, remember what in-game situations feel like and get out of town at the half. Week 17 is a different animal.
The pick: Dallas (-3.5)
New Orleans @ Atlanta
10 of 17
Opening line: New Orleans @ Atlanta (-1.5)
Current line: New Orleans @ Atlanta (-5)
What these teams are playing for: Absolutely nothing.
This is what we know: The Atlanta Falcons are still a motivated team. It'd be hard to say this team quit on an already-finished season when they just beat an undefeated team two weeks after losing to them by a score of 38-0.
On the other hand, despite the fact the New Orleans Saints beat the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out, it could be a wrap for the Saints. Remember, they just played their last home game after dropping their last three tries. That could have been their playing-out-of-their-minds push on an empty tank. Was that the last time Drew Brees played in the Superdome? Was that the last time Sean Payton coached in the Superdome? New Orleans' gloomy future, which includes already being over the 2016 salary cap, hangs over their heads.
The Saints are 3-4 on the road, but the Falcons are 3-4 at home. What this game comes down to is their power rankings. Atlanta is a better team on paper, as the Falcons aren't the squad with a historically horrible defense. Who is going to stop Julio Jones? They should be favored by more than three points because of Jones and their home-field advantage alone. It's amazing this game opened lower than that. I'm willing to lay the extra point to avoid dying New Orleans leadership.
The pick: Atlanta (-1.5)
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
11 of 17
Opening line: Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-9.5)
Current line: Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-11)
What these teams are playing for: The Carolina Panthers are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are out of playoff contention.
The Carolina Panthers, who lost for the first time in 2015 last time out, are favored by double digits. If you want to put your money on them, I understand where you're coming from, but you need to realize the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are better against the spread on the road than their record and the Panthers are worse at home against the spread than their record. Lines have been inflated in both of these teams' games because of their public perception compared to their in-game production.
The young Buccaneers have lost five games by double digits this season, but only one has come since mid-November, and they escaped December without a single such blemish. As you'd expect, the youth on the squad seems to be progressing on a week-to-week basis. It's been a long time since they lost 42-14 to the Tennessee Titans, who now look like a potential first overall pick candidate, in Week 1.
On the flip side, the Panthers only won by double digits once in December. They beat the Saints by three points in New Orleans, the Falcons by 38 points in Carolina, the Giants by three points in New York and lost to the Falcons by seven points in Atlanta. Their midseason stretch was very strong, but the grind may be taking a toll on Cam Newton and co. during the winter.
The pick: Tampa Bay (+11)
Oakland @ Kansas City
12 of 17
Opening line: Oakland @ Kansas City (-6.5)
Current line: Oakland @ Kansas City (-7.5)
What these teams are playing for: The Kansas City Chiefs are playing for a long shot for the AFC West title, while the Oakland Raiders are out of playoff contention.
In Oakland, the Kansas City Chiefs would be straight-up favorites according to this line. In a one-game sample, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders at home this year, but other than the Denver Broncos, another in-division game, the Chiefs haven't beaten another team of their caliber on the road in 2015. For the most part, during their hot streak to end the season, they've played a fairly easy schedule.
At home, Kansas City is 5-2 straight up, but they have a 3-4 record against the spread. Against the spread on the road, the Oakland Raiders are 5-2 in 2015. Alex Smith isn't the type of quarterback to run the score up on teams by himself, and when Raiders pass-rusher Khalil Mack gets going, he's a monster. Derek Carr can single-handedly throw Oakland into a respectable one-score game.
The pick: Oakland (+7.5)
San Diego @ Denver
13 of 17
Opening line: San Diego @ Denver (-7.5)
Current line: San Diego @ Denver (-9)
What these teams are playing for: The Denver Broncos are fighting for a first-round bye and a playoff berth, while the San Diego Chargers are out of playoff contention.
Sure, the Chargers lost in a 17-3 effort against this same exact team in early December, but they have slowly built momentum over the past couple weeks. They only allowed the Kansas City Chiefs, the hottest team in the NFL, to score 10 points on them, then beat the Miami Dolphins by three scores in what was potentially their final home game in San Diego and played in an overtime game in Oakland in Week 16.
At the end of the day, even without players such as Eric Weddle suiting up for the Chargers, is Brock Osweiler going to be able to take advantage of the San Diego defense? The Broncos have only scored more than 17 points in regulation once since we crowned him the future of Denver's franchise after he beat New England in overtime at the end of November.
Denver's home record against the spread is 3-4, despite a 5-2 straight-up record. San Diego has only won one road game in 2015 but has a 5-2 record against the spread. Why? Inflated lines and the fact Philip Rivers can throw the Chargers into a respectable deficit instead of a blowout.
The pick: San Diego (+9)
St. Louis @ San Francisco
14 of 17
Opening line: St. Louis @ San Francisco (+3.5)
Current line: St. Louis @ San Francisco (+3.5)
What these teams are playing for: Absolutely nothing.
Pump the breaks. Last time out, the St. Louis Rams could have been found as 12-point underdogs on the road against the Seattle Seahawks, a team they beat straight up. Now, we're going to overcorrect.
In a vacuum, a 12-point line means the Rams would be eight-point underdogs on a neutral field from a power-ranking standpoint, as the Seahawks are usually attributed four points as a home-field advantage instead of the typical three. In this game, the Rams are 3.5-point favorites, meaning they are better than the San Francisco 49ers by at least six points, depending on how you feel about San Francisco's home-field advantage, on a neutral field.
So the Seahawks would be favored by 17 or more points at home against the 49ers according to these two lines? Vegas was too low on St. Louis last in Week 16, and now they're too high. The Rams are 2-4-1 against the spread as an away team this year, while four of San Francisco's six covers have come at home.
Trusting in Blaine Gabbert sounds less than ideal, until you realize that the alternative is trusting Jeff Fisher and co. as more than field-goal road favorites despite a 2-5 record on the road.
The pick: San Francisco (+3.5)
Seattle @ Arizona
15 of 17
Opening line: Seattle @ Arizona (-3.5)
Current line: Seattle @ Arizona (-7)
What these teams are playing for: The Arizona Cardinals are fighting for a chance for the top seed in the NFC, while the Seattle Seahawks can be the fifth or sixth seed.
This line opened with the Seattle Seahawks as 3.5-point underdogs, which I believe was fair, but it has since moved toward the Arizona Cardinals by double the handicap. Are the Cardinals four-point favorites over the Seahawks on a neutral field? That seems steep since Arizona is typically thought of as a visitor's stadium.
The Seahawks haven't lost to a team by more than seven points since Week 2, when they lost by 10 points in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. At home, the Cardinals are just 3-4 against the spread despite a 6-1 straight-up record.
Layup.
The pick: Seattle (+7)
Sunday Night Football: Minnesota @ Green Bay
16 of 17
Opening line: Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3)
Current line: Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3)
What these teams are playing for: The NFC North title
Divisional games are tough because results often don't repeat. We saw this in Week 16 as the Atlanta Falcons beat the undefeated Carolina Panthers 20-13 in the Georgia Dome just two weeks after losing in Bank of America Stadium in a 38-0 effort. With that being said, the Packers have had the edge on the Minnesota Vikings and the NFC North for years.
Green Bay has won the last four conference titles in a row, and since the creation of the NFC North in 2002, they've won eight of 13 banners between the four teams in the division. Dating back to the 2010 season, the Packers are 10-1-1 against the Vikings, with every win coming by at least three points.
After losing 38-8 in its last outing, we've been given the rare opportunity to buy low on Green Bay. Lambeau Field awards them at least a three-point home field advantage, and the Packers are a better team on paper, as they proved in Minneapolis in November with their 30-13 win over Minnesota. This is still Aaron Rodgers' division, even if he is having an off year.
The pick: Green Bay (-3)
Locks of the Week
17 of 17
1. Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3)
2. Seattle (+7) @ Arizona
3. Tampa Bay (+11) @ Carolina
4. New York Jets @ Buffalo (+3)
5. Detroit @ Chicago (PK)
All lines courtesy of Odds Shark.
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