Best-Case Scenarios for Tennis' Top Stars in 2016
Coaching hires, scheduling decisions and off-court announcements have headlined the short tennis offseason, and every move offers a hint at where the hearts of the top players lie.
Roger Federer and Andy Murray both made changes to their camps, with each man eager to end his Grand Slam drought. While Rafael Nadal didn’t make similar news, he shares the goal of winning a major and getting back on track after a subpar 2015.
Things remain the same with Novak Djokovic after a historic season, but his mission entering 2016 is an old one: a victory at the French Open.
Recently named Sports Illustrated’s 2015 Sportsperson of the Year, Serena Williams is out to make amends for her U.S. Open loss and chase history. Trying to stop her will be a formidable lineup of opponents, including a determined Simona Halep and a healthy Maria Sharapova.
To have successful 2016 seasons, these stars and a few of their peers have some specific things to accomplish. The following slides will examine their best-case scenarios.
Petra Kvitova
1 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Find more peace with her game
This past season was a struggle for Petra Kvitova.
Some people picked her to win another major, but she didn't come close to meeting that expectation. At the four Grand Slam tournaments, Kvitova only once (U.S. Open) made it out of the fourth round. That's disappointing for a player who has twice found Grand Slam success.
The pressure of being under that constant microscope seemed to weigh on Kvitova at times, notably when she took a spring sabbatical to regain her passion amid mental fatigue. When she returned, things didn't suddenly click for her.
Despite contracting mononucleosis during the summer, Kvitova hung tough and participated at the U.S. Open. But her run ended in frustrating fashion as she fell to eventual champion Flavia Pennetta in three sets.
Power and shot-making aren't problems with Kvitova; they're her strengths. Harnessing those skills consistently seems to be the main issue. Whether or not she can do so in 2016 will be something to watch as she looks to win a third major title.
Maria Sharapova
2 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Stay healthy for the entire season
Before focusing on major titles, Maria Sharapova first needs to worry about staying healthy.
She’s dealt with numerous injuries throughout her career (including a career-threatening shoulder problem), but one to her right leg after Wimbledon forced her to skip several events, including Toronto, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. Upon returning in Wuhan, China, she suffered a forearm injury that forced her to withdraw.
When she actually saw the court in 2015, Sharapova played reasonably well. She made trips to the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semifinals and won a third title in Rome.
Still No. 4 in the world, Sharapova is poised to get back to at least second in the rankings and remain in contention at big tournaments. That won’t happen if she can’t stay active.
Remaining injury-free should be her main initiative. Then she can reclaim her spot as Serena’s main challenger.
Garbine Muguruza
3 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Win first major title
Entering 2016, Garbine Muguruza, 22, will be a trendy pick to win her first Grand Slam title.
She's a naturally powerful hitter who loves playing offense, and how Muguruza develops other aspects of her game will determine if she can actually reach that goal in the coming months.
Already No. 3 in the world, she can take that next step by continuing to hone her tactics and becoming more patient. Doing so would likely see her find more consistency, and it's a mindset she's probably working on with new coach Sam Sumyk, who once guided Victoria Azarenka to two Grand Slam crowns.
Muguruza has the talent to develop into the top-ranked player over the next few years. She's made one major final so far in her short career, and more should soon be on the horizon.
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Simona Halep
4 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Play more consistently at majors
Like Muguruza, Simona Halep longs to win a maiden Grand Slam title. That won't happen in 2016 if she doesn't perform better at the major tournaments.
This past year, she lost in the early rounds at both the French Open and Wimbledon to go along with lopsided defeats in the Australian Open quarterfinals and the U.S. Open semifinals. The latter one stings the most as only Flavia Pennetta stood between Halep and her best chance yet to capture a major.
That didn't happen because Halep picked a bad time to come out flat. Now, she enters another season facing the same question that's continually hovered over her.
Halep is a fit and athletic player with an impressive array of tools; however, those skills don't manifest often enough under the spotlight, especially against power hitters. To get over that hurdle, she needs to find a way to peak during the latter stages of majors rather than before. That's easier said than done.
Serena Williams
5 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Win multiple Grand Slam titles
With 21 majors won in her illustrious career, Serena Williams is closing in fast on Margaret Court’s all-time record. Taking home a few more in 2016 will be her primary focus.
After just missing out on completing a rare calendar Grand Slam this year, Williams won’t take her foot off the pedal. The loss in the U.S. Open semifinals added fuel to the fire, so expect her to come out hungry to open this upcoming season.
At 34, Williams is entering the last stretch of her playing days. She hasn’t seemed to lose a step yet, but how much longer can she remain this good? Only four titles short of breaking Court’s record, Williams has a good chance to pass her sometime next season based on her current trajectory.
Bet against her at your own peril.
Rafael Nadal
6 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Beat Novak Djokovic in a final
After a season that opened many questions about his form and future, Rafael Nadal is looking to provide some answers.
It’s not an understatement to call 2016 the most pivotal year of Nadal’s career. He’ll either start winning important tournaments again and regain his confidence or take one step closer to the end of his career.
Nadal seemed flustered throughout 2015, unsure of his shots and ability to beat his top rivals. He struggled against Djokovic, Federer and Murray, losing ground to all three men. Djokovic especially proved the thorn in his side.
Besides dethroning Nadal in Paris, Djokovic demolished him in Monte Carlo, Beijing and London at the World Tour Finals. In those four matches, Nadal only once took more than three games off Djokovic in a set.
The world No. 1 is the biggest obstacle in Nadal’s path back to relevance. Djokovic has controlled that rivalry the last few years, and Nadal desperately needs a win against him to restore some balance. Perhaps beating him in a final is the kind of result that could have massive psychological ramifications.
Stan Wawrinka
7 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Find more emotional stability on the court
Stan Wawrinka plays the game with a fiery passion. That quality has worked in his favor many times over the past few seasons, but sometimes it can also be his undoing.
After heroically taking down Djokovic for the French Open title, Wawrinka suffered through a lull after that emotional high, and it took him a while to recharge. He didn't come out blazing at Wimbledon, and his level of play also dipped in Montreal and Cincinnati.
He looked to be peaking again at the U.S. Open but ran into a familiar roadblock: Federer.
Against his friend and compatriot, Wawrinka often comes up on the short end. He's lost 18 of their 21 meetings, with his only wins coming on clay. On other surfaces, Federer seems to get into his head and overwhelms him with offensive firepower. Approaching their matches with a different mindset is something Wawrinka is still trying to figure out.
Because of his versatile game, Wawrinka will be in the mix at all of the Grand Slams in 2016. To win one for a third straight season, though, he'll need to avoid the same emotional ups and downs.
Roger Federer
8 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Win Wimbledon or Olympic gold
When Roger Federer announced his 2016 schedule on Twitter, one thing became immediately clear: He has pushed all his chips in the direction of Wimbledon and the Olympics.
By skipping the clay-court tuneup events prior to the French Open, Federer is essentially saying sayonara to the dirt so he can focus all his energy on the summer. Along with his usual stop in Halle, Germany, Federer will also play in Stuttgart prior to Wimbledon. Disappointed by falling in the final at the All England Club the last two years, he’s intent on gaining extra preparation on the grass and going for an eighth title there.
The Olympics also mean a great deal to Federer. While he won a gold medal in doubles at the 2008 games, he’s yet to do the same in singles and complete the career Golden Slam. He’ll turn 35 when the 2016 Olympics start, which means this will likely be his final chance to take home the top prize and check an important box off his to-do list.
Besides singles, Federer is also slated to participate in mixed doubles with Martina Hingis and regular doubles. Playing so much tennis in that short amount of time is a risk that he seems willing to take.
He craves more glory both at the Olympics and Wimbledon before retiring. Succeeding at both events will be Federer’s main goal in 2016.
Andy Murray
9 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Win another major
Over two-and-half years have passed since Andy Murray won Wimbledon, his most recent taste of Grand Slam glory.
Ending that drought will drive him in 2016.
Murray’s only trip to a major final during this stretch was the 2015 Australian Open. There, Djokovic raced to a relatively swift four-set victory, dealing Murray his fourth loss in a Melbourne final.
That result didn’t have much carryover effect, as the Scot put together a strong overall season that ended with Great Britain’s first Davis Cup title in 79 years and the first year-end No. 2 ranking of his career.
Buoyed by that momentum, Murray will be considered a prime contender once again in Australia and at Wimbledon. If he wins either tournament and claims a long-awaited third major, Murray will vanquish a hefty burden.
Novak Djokovic
10 of 10
Best-Case Scenario: Complete the career Grand Slam
Novak Djokovic will be a heavy favorite to win multiple Grand Slam titles in 2016. Yet the one he covets most is the French Open.
A win at Roland Garros is all that stands between Djokovic and a career Grand Slam. He’s come close several times, reaching the finals in 2012, 2014 and 2015, as well as making the semifinals four other times. Each of those runs ended in heartbreak.
For so long, Rafael Nadal was the bane of his existence in Paris. Djokovic cathartically overcame him this past spring, but that win was for naught as he fell to Wawrinka in the final.
The French Open is the monkey on Djokovic’s back. Questions about whether or not he’ll win that tournament will follow him until he actually does it. By the time the 2016 edition rolls around, he’ll be 29. Djokovic should have a few more opportunities to get the job done, but this next one may be his best chance.
Should he reign triumphant on the terre battue, Djokovic’s season will be an overwhelming success.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com and WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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