Which Club Should Be Favourite to Win the Premier League Halfway Through?
Not many had Arsenal and Leicester City joint top after 19 fixtures in August, but the unexpected is usually welcome with regard to football.
Alternating between first and second for the past five matchdays, the two clubs (both on 39 points before New Year's Day) are the apparent front runners to win the 2015/16 Premier League title.
Eight of the last 11 English champions led the league at Christmas, all 11 placed at least third. It seems Leicester (who were first at Christmas) have history on their side, but their lofty position is more shocking than any expectation of continued success.
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Arsenal, taking over from the Foxes after the festive period, are the bookmakers' current favourites to lift the Premier League trophy in May.
Despite this encouraging support, the Gunners' last decade of league play suggests somewhere along the line, tragedy, injury and/or the simply unexplainable will befall Arsene Wenger's men, leaving them in ruin.
Possibly the saving grace of both Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri and his French counterpart is the stuttering form of every other assumed pre-season title contender.
Chelsea, who were pre-season favourites to retain their 2014/15 crown, have crashed and burned. Jose Mourinho was sacked, Guus Hiddink is now the Blues' interim manager and his first two results were less than convincing—drawing with Watford at Stamford Bridge and Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Louis van Gaal is under massive pressure to rebound. Leading after Matchday 7, England's pre-eminent footballing entity have fallen to sixth. The Red Devils have not earned three points in the Premier League since November 21 (their record in the subsequent matches, 0W-3D-3L).
Unsurprisingly, shouts for the Dutch manager to be relieved of his duties have only intensified as his club's brand of football has dulled.
Thanks to the underperforming Chelsea and Manchester United, a crop of overachievers (including Leicester) have taken their place.
Tottenham Hotspur (who enjoy the Premier League's best defensive record) and Crystal Palace have emerged as legitimate top-four contenders. Spurs are the more traditional member in the secondary pack, but expecting them to better their first-half performance is overreaching.
As presently constituted, the only proper challenger to the deadlocked top pair is Manchester City.
Manuel Pellegrini's side were doubted at the start of this season. 2014/15 was a massive disappointment for England's then champions. Dropping unexpected points, and not showing the same determination/fight they displayed in 2013/14, many thought last season's characteristics would worsen.
They have not.
Battling the omissions of ever-injured Sergio Aguero and Vincent Kompany, the Citizens are only three points off first place—possessing a better goal difference than Leicester and Arsenal.
Were form and injury negligible factors, Manchester City would win every match they played. Joe Hart, Kompany, Yaya Toure, Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva, Aguero and a host of others—under ideal conditions—compile England's best squad, only the extremely biased would argue that point.
If the best renditions of every EPL club play for the next 19 matches, Pellegrini's men would win the league.
City's issue is not talent, it is consistency, or—more appropriately—inconsistency.
Since they emerged, Leicester have heard doubters, but 39 points in 19 matches cannot exactly be dismissed. Their aim to start the season was 40 points, any result against Bournemouth this weekend completes that mission. The question for the Foxes then becomes: "Now what?" Either they relax after "securing safety" or accept the next goal of European places, and possibly winning the Premier League.
Arsenal play with the pressure of winning trophies every time they grace a football pitch. Wenger's side, though, have little experience winning the league; only he, Danny Welbeck and Petr Cech have touched the Premier League trophy. Whether that minimal knowledge is enough to get them over whatever impending doom will arrive, we wait and anticipate.
After New Year's Day 2015, Chelsea and Manchester City were separated by alphabetical order. Much was made about the Blues' wonderful start to last season's campaign, but the Sky Blues were right with them. Once 2015 arrived, City were stuck in the proverbial mud, lost ground and eventually the title.
It is conceivable that, after January 2's round of matches, City will once again be joint leaders atop the Premier League to start the new year. Given their reservoir of talent, depth and experience, they should be favourites to win the title; but, as the most unpredictable title challenger—and in one of the most unpredictable title races—nothing can be guaranteed.
Nor would we want it that way.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
