Bowl Games 2015-16: Full Schedule and Predictions for College Football Playoff
Before the year ends, college football takes center stage in the sports world, with the College Football Playoff beginning on Dec. 31 as Oklahoma takes on Clemson in the Orange Bowl and Alabama goes against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
Clemson earned the top spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings by virtue of being the only undefeated FBS team and winning the ACC championship. Oklahoma rebounded from an Oct. 10 loss against Texas with seven consecutive wins, including three straight over Big 12 powers Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
Alabama and Michigan State are the titans in this year's playoff. The two programs have won at least 11 games each of the last three seasons, with Alabama's streak of seasons with double-digit wins at eight. Both teams are coming off impressive defensive efforts in their respective conference title games.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Orange Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma | Thursday, Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | ESPN |
| Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs.No. 3 Michigan State | Thursday, Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | ESPN |
| College Football Playoff National Championship | Orange Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner | Monday, Jan. 11 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN |
Orange Bowl Prediction
A matchup between the Sooners and the Tigers is going to focus on offense, as it should. These two teams can put up points with anyone in the nation. Oklahoma finished the regular season third in the nation with 45.8 points per game; Clemson looks almost pedestrian by comparison with 38.5 points per game.
The difference between the teams right now is on defense, where Clemson has been exposed down the stretch with a combined 69 points and 790 yards allowed to South Carolina and North Carolina.
Defensive stats don't always matter, particularly when the offense has put up 82 points and 1,123 yards during that same two-game stretch, but it is a point of emphasis that Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has to focus on.
One thing Pete Fiutak of Campus Insiders pointed out that works in Clemson's favor is how the defense has done a fantastic job of stepping up in the season's biggest games.
"Clemson has the high-powered offense and aggressive defense to make up for most mistakes, but turnovers are an issue with a -2 margin six times on the year. Fortunately, for the Tigers, they were a combined +8 in the biggest games against Notre Dame, Miami, Florida State and North Carolina, but Oklahoma isn’t going to give the ball up enough to make a different.
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The last part of Fiutak's statement is key because Oklahoma doesn't turn the ball over. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw just five interceptions in 354 attempts. By comparison, Clemson quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist DeShaun Watson had 11 interceptions in 413 attempts.
Yet what makes both of these teams special and so effective on offense is balance. Mayfield and Watson get many of the accolades, but running backs Samaje Perine and Wayne Gallman are just as crucial to making the machines work.
Perine's performance in particular is evident of how Oklahoma's season turned around after losing to Texas. Brandon Chatmon of ESPN.com provided the statistical evidence to back that claim up:
"With better blocking up front, Perine’s yards-per-carry average rose immediately after not breaking 4.2 in four of Oklahoma’s first five games. He averaged 14.5 carries and 110.5 rushing yards with 7.6 yards per carry in victories over Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State.
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As Oklahoma rolled through a three-game stretch of Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State without a loss, Perine was unstoppable. The sophomore piled up 166 rushing yards against Baylor, 188 against TCU and 131 against the rival Cowboys as Oklahoma beat its top competition for the conference title by an average of 15.3 points.
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Whereas Oklahoma knows it can depend on the two-headed monster of Mayfield and Perine, Clemson's offense is a one-man show right now.
The show Watson puts on is spectacular, accounting for nine of Clemson's 11 touchdowns in the last two games.
Even though Watson is the best player on either team in this game, Oklahoma's talent is more diverse and has hit its stride when it needed to.
Clemson's biggest games this year, against Notre Dame and Florida State, were at home. Its recent close calls were on the road (at South Carolina) and at a neutral site (ACC Championship Game). Oklahoma beat Tennessee, Baylor and Oklahoma State on the road.
In a matchup between two teams so evenly matched with similar strength, go with the team that has proved itself away from the friendly confines of home.
Oklahoma 37, Clemson 31
Cotton Bowl Prediction
In the television show Justified there is a character named Wynn Duffy, who by any rational standard should not have made it through the series run because of his dealings with dangerous people. Yet through some force of will and slick talking, he made it out of Harlan alive.
The 2015 Michigan State Spartans have a lot in common with Wynn Duffy minus the dealings with dangerous people part. This team got the miracle of all miracles against Michigan in the Big House, defeated Ohio State in Columbus without star quarterback Connor Cook and needed one of the greatest fourth-quarter drives in years to defeat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
On the other side, taking out past reputation, can anyone really say how good this year's Alabama team is? The SEC has been lauded for years as a dominant force in college football, but it was not good in 2015.
The Crimson Tide defense can claim to have one of the best single-game performances against LSU star running back Leonard Fournette, holding him to a season-low 31 rushing yards on 19 carries.
But from a resume perspective, there isn't one team Alabama has defeated this year that stands out. Using the storyline of Michigan State's weasel-like ability to survive and Alabama's unimpressive schedule, it's hard to figure out what separates these two teams.
The biggest separator, at the risk of being obvious, is this year's Heisman winner, Alabama running back Derrick Henry. He's been incredible at slowly wearing down opposing defenses before racking up huge yardage totals.
According to Rick Drummond of Pro Football Focus, taking down Henry on first contact has been a monumental task for the opposition:
"Against Power-5 competition, Henry and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey are essentially neck-and-neck at the top in attempts and yards, but Henry’s 978 yards after contact leads the country, (well in front of second place Royce Freeman of Oregon) as do his 16 rushing touchdowns (just ahead of Ezekiel Elliot’s 15 for Ohio State).
Henry’s 21 breakaway runs (of 15-plus yards) and the 646 yards gained on them are both second to Freeman, while his impressive total of 56 missed tackles forced trails only the 58 that Freeman and UCLA’s Paul Perkins have produced.
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With Henry carrying the offensive load, Alabama's defensive line has given opposing offenses fits all season, per Alex Scarborough of ESPN.com.
"Alabama had never finished in the top 10 nationally in sacks under [head coach Nick] Saban and now the Tide are No. 1 in the country," Scarborough wrote. "At the same time, the gap between Alabama and the No. 2 rush defense is nearly 10 yards per game."
Just as Alabama's schedule hasn't been up to its usual standards, it's hard to know if Michigan State's defensive surge—the Spartans' opponents are averaging 12.5 points over the last four games—is actual improvement from the unit or just a result of having played teams like Maryland, Penn State and Iowa.
The Cotton Bowl will be the defensive struggle to counter all the points on display in the Orange Bowl, with Alabama riding Henry and the defensive front four to victory.
Alabama 20, Michigan State 17
CFP Championship Prediction
The matchup of Oklahoma vs. Alabama is a true battle of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
The Sooners offense can seemingly do no wrong at this point, scoring at least 44 points in six of the last seven games. The Crimson Tide defense leads the nation with 46 sacks and ranks third in points allowed per game.
The Achilles' heel for Nick Saban's defense the previous two years has been allowing big plays on defense, especially against the run, with Auburn racking up 296 yards on the ground in the 2013 Iron Bowl and Ezekiel Elliott running for 230 yards in last year's Sugar Bowl.
The Tide have fixed those problems this year, so if Oklahoma is going to win, it will have to come through the air with Mayfield. That's certainly not a bad thing for Sooners head coach Bob Stoops, but going against Alabama's defense is a lot different than anything his team has faced in the Big 12.
The Crimson Tide defensive line is so good because it's so balanced. There are 11 players who have at least four tackles for loss, so Saban can rotate as often as he likes without suffering a significant drop in talent or production.
If there were questions about how battle-tested Alabama is for the playoff coming out of SEC play, winning a national title should silence any of the doubters.
Alabama 30, Oklahoma 20
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