Fiesta Bowl 2016: Final Odds and Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State

Between them, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won a combined 19 national championships. They won't be playing for an FBS title this year, but bragging rights are on the line when the two college football titans oppose one another in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl.

These schools aren't strangers to one another in Arizona. In 2006, the Buckeyes defeated the Fighting Irish 34-20 in the Fiesta Bowl.

Despite being among the most storied programs in history, though, Notre Dame and Ohio State have met on just five occasions, with the latter holding a 3-2 series advantage. This is the kind of matchup for which bowl season was made.

When: Friday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Watch: ESPN

Live Stream: Watch ESPN

Odds: Ohio State (-6)

With all due respect to Notre Dame, the biggest question going into this game surrounds which Ohio State will show up.

The Buckeyes looked listless in their lone defeat to Michigan State, gaining 132 yards of total offense and going 4-of-14 on third downs. Much was made of Ezekiel Elliott's workload, but he averaged a mere 2.8 yards a carry on the night. It's not as if Elliott carved the Spartans defense open when he was getting the ball.

Tony Ding/Associated Press

The next week, the reigning national champions dropped 42 points and 482 yards on one of the best defenses in the country. Michigan, which allowed 122.6 yards a game on the ground, had no answer for Elliott, who went for 214 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. J.T. Barrett also ran for 139 yards and three TDs of his own.

"I've been very fortunate to be around some big-time games. From the bottom of my heart I told these players that might be the best one I've ever seen," said Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer after the win, per Yahoo Sports' Dan Wetzel. "To come back from that kick to the stomach we took last week, it was an awful week of practice, not awful [in terms of execution but in] the way everyone felt."

The Ohio State team that beat Michigan is one of the best in the country, while the Buckeyes from the previous 11 games were much more pedestrian. If the latter shows up, this is Notre Dame's game to lose.

With that said, the Fighting Irish are themselves tough to read. Their two defeats this year came by a combined four points to the ACC and Pac-12 champions, but their biggest win of the year was arguably against Navy—not exactly a ringing endorsement no matter how good the Midshipmen were.

Looking beyond 2015, Notre Dame's recent record in major bowl games leaves a lot to be desired as well. Alabama outclassed the Fighting Irish in the 2013 BCS national championship, while the team lost the Fiesta Bowl and Sugar Bowl in back-to-back seasons under former head coach Charlie Weis.

For DeShone Kizer, this game presents a special opportunity in addition to turning around the Fighting Irish's bowl luck. The Notre Dame quarterback graduated from Central Catholic High School in Toledo, Ohio, so he's well-versed in the Ohio State mythology. He sees the Fiesta Bowl as a chance to make a major statement, per Mike Vorel of the South Bend Tribune:

Kizer will play a significant role for Notre Dame, but C.J. Prosise holds the key to the team's chances of upsetting Ohio State.

The star running back struggled mightily against Clemson and Temple, averaging 3.3 and 1.8 yards, respectively, against the Tigers and Owls. Notre Dame lost the first of those two games and won the second on a Kizer touchdown pass with a little more than two minutes left in the game.

Prosise was also absent for the game against Stanford, which the Fighting Irish lost.

Much like the Buckeyes, Notre Dame will struggle to move the ball if its running back isn't firing on all cylinders.

If the Fiesta Bowl does become a battle of the backs, then Ohio State gets the edge. Not only is Elliott a better player, the Buckeyes also boast a stiffer defense.

They're allowing 127.3 rushing yards a game compared to 166.5 for the Irish. The advanced metrics also favor OSU, which ranks 17th in S&P+ rush defense rating, 34 spots ahead of Notre Dame, per Football Outsiders.

Head coach Brian Kelly's team is also 71st in power success rate, which Football Outsiders defines as the "percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown."

Meyer won't make the mistake of failing to give Elliott an adequate amount of touches again. Elliott will get the ball early and often, and if Notre Dame's performance to date is any indicator, he should find a lot of success.

Prediction: Ohio State 30, Notre Dame 20

Note: Fiesta Bowl odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.