Previewing 10 Heated MLB Position Battles After Pile of 2015 Offseason Moves
The MLB offseason always captivates the baseball world, but the moves that are made each winter affect teams that are involved in more ways than one.
Once the dust settles and pitchers and catchers begin to report to spring training, the magnitude of offseason deals can truly be felt. When new players are added, old names are often left fighting for their jobs in the next season.
That's happening across MLB once again heading into 2016. Over the next 10 slides, we'll provide an early preview of some of the most fascinating position battles that figure to take place this spring.
What do the additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller mean to the back end of the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation? Who will close games for the Houston Astros, Luke Gregerson or the freshly acquired Ken Giles? Who will be the odd man out in the rotations in San Francisco, Seattle and Toronto?
Those situations aren't cut and dry and will require a month's worth of data this spring for managers to make an educated decision. However, there are early favorites to win each of those competitions, and we'll identify those players in the slides ahead.
Depth is always a good thing for a club, but it sets up debates on which players are the right men for the job. There are still plenty of dominoes left to fall this winter, but enough has happened for us to start gauging what will happen when players compete for their spots this spring.
Arizona Diamondbacks Fourth and Fifth Starters
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There's no question that Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller and Patrick Corbin give the Arizona Diamondbacks one of the premier starting trios in all of baseball, but the other two spots in the rotation will be up for grabs this spring.
Arizona has a handful of starters that are capable of filling those openings in Rubby De La Rosa, Robbie Ray, Chase Anderson and Archie Bradley. While De La Rosa and Ray seem to be the favorites on paper, the decision may not be that cut and dry.
Of the four, Ray and Anderson put together the best campaigns last season. Ray posted a 3.52 ERA and led the pitching staff in WAR, while Anderson finished second in that category. De La Rosa topped the Diamondbacks in innings pitched but recorded a 4.67 ERA and finished the year walking over three hitters per nine innings.
The wild card here is Bradley. Arizona's top prospect struggled after a taking a line drive to the head last season, ending the year with a 5.80 ERA in eight starts. Despite an ultimately disappointing and unlucky start to his big league career, Bradley has the ability to maneuver his way into the rotation with a solid spring.
Three out of five nights, Arizona will be tough to beat. Still, the club's ability to find two other reliable starters will determine if it can overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants in the National League West.
Atlanta Braves Starting Rotation
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The Shelby Miller blockbuster did more than revamp the Arizona Diamondbacks starting staff. The move also opened the door for competition with his former team.
Pending any more trades, the Atlanta Braves will enter 2016 with Julio Teheran and Matt Wisler atop the rotation. Signing veteran Bud Norris to a $2.5 million contract this winter indicates the Braves are content with slotting him in the No. 3 spot, despite a 6.72 ERA last season.
If those spots hold true, the final two spots in the rotation can be won by a host of young hurlers.
Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez have the upper hand in that competition. Banuelos, a former top prospect in the New York Yankees organization, has an advantage considering he's the only left-hander with a realistic shot at the Opening Day roster. Perez pitched well at times last year, and while Foltynewicz may profile more as a late-inning option, he has the stuff to stick in the rotation if he puts it all together.
Behind that trio, a handful of talented prospects can apply pressure to those hurlers next spring. Prospects Aaron Blair, Tyrell Jenkins, Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims aren't far away from the big leagues and could debut in 2016.
Regardless, Atlanta's treasure trove of controllable pitching bodes well moving forward. The only intrigue in 2016 is which hurlers will set themselves up to be part of the rotation when the club enters its new stadium in 2017.
Baltimore Orioles Outfield
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It's hard to envision the Baltimore Orioles entering the 2016 season without adding another hitter to the mix.
Adam Jones is as solid as they come in center field, but for now, the O's have question marks surrounding who will play the corner outfield positions. Korean signee Hyun-soo Kim, Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard, journeymen Nolan Reimold and Ryan Flaherty and offensive-minded Mark Trumbo are less-than-stellar current options for manager Buck Showalter.
Trumbo's bat will force its way into the lineup, whether in the outfield, at first base or at DH. The 29-year-old is coming of a 22-homer campaign in 2015, but has posted minus-12 defensive runs saved in his career as an outfielder. In a perfect world, slotting Trumbo in the DH spot is what's best for Baltimore.
Kim, who signed a two-year, $7 million deal earlier this winter, hit .326 with a .438 on-base percentage, 28 home runs and 121 RBIs last season in the Korean Baseball Organization. The 27-year-old's ability to get on base will be a valuable asset to an Orioles team that ranked third in strikeout percentage last season.
Reimold and Flaherty are what they are, role players who can't contribute every day. That leaves Rickard as a dark horse to win a job this spring. The former Tampa Bay Rays farmhand slashed .321/.427/.447 between Double-A and Triple-A and currently leads the Dominican Winter League in RBI and total bases.
Again, Baltimore needs to make another move or two to round out its everyday lineup. Even with another addition though, there will be plenty of competition among outfielders this spring for Opening Day roster spots.
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Boston Red Sox Outfield
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The Baltimore Orioles aren't the only American League East team with outfield questions that need answering.
This spring, the Boston Red Sox will find themselves in a similar situation. But unlike their division rivals, the Red Sox have a handful of capable players that can make an impact in 2016.
That starts with talented youngster Mookie Betts, who proved his big league worth last year. The 23-year-old slashed .291/.341/.479 with 18 homers and 21 steals, all while saving 13 defensive runs between center and right field.
After Betts, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that Boston's outfield, while deep, boasts a limited track record:
"On the major league roster, the Sox will feature a group of starters with a limited track record, including two outfielders who have offered just brief glimpses of big league success in Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo. The presence of reserves Chris Young and Brock Holt will give the team additional options for the outfield, but of course if Holt plays one position, it removes him as an insurance option elsewhere.
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Young was signed away from the New York Yankees on a two-year, $13 million deal earlier this winter, and he'll likely get the benefit of the doubt at one of the corner outfield spots. Jackie Bradley Jr. made everyone forget about his dreadful rookie season with a standout second half a year ago.
The odd men out figure to be Cuban import Rusney Castillo and and super utility man Brock Holt. Castillo was inked to a $72.5 million contract in 2014 but struggled in 80 games in Boston last year. Meanwhile, Holt is best utilized spelling starters in a reserve role.
There will be plenty of discussion regarding Boston's outfield alignment entering spring training, but the overall talent level of the group cannot be denied. As in most cases, the performance of the players involved will determine how the Red Sox break camp this spring.
Houston Astros Closer
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The role the bullpen played in the Houston Astros' run to the postseason in 2015 is often lost in the shuffle.
In 2014, there wasn't a worse unit in all of baseball as Houston ranked dead last in ERA. That changed dramatically as the Astros late-inning hurlers improved their collective ERA to the sixth-best mark in MLB and ranked second in the league in WAR.
Free-agent acquisition Luke Gregerson was a big reason for the bullpen's success. The right-hander posted a 3.10 ERA in 2015 and saved 31 games for a young Astros team.
That didn't stop general manager Jeff Luhnow from exploring the market for available closers this winter. Eventually, Luhnow pulled the trigger on acquiring Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Ken Giles, parting with former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel in the process.
The move should improve Houston's bullpen even more. Giles has posted a sub-2.00 ERA in two straight seasons and saved 12 games for Philadelphia once he took over the role in wake of the Jonathan Papelbon deal. The 25-year-old has electric stuff, ranking among MLB's top 15 relievers in strikeouts per nine innings.
Giles put any ideas that there's a closing crisis to bed in his introductory press conference, stating his main goal is helping the team win in any way possible.
"I believe I can be successful in any role possible," Giles told Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press. "It doesn't matter what the role. I can be the eighth-inning guy, which I've done before and I'd be perfectly fine with that as long as it means helping the team out."
It helps that both Gregerson and Giles have experience as set-up men, and have enjoyed the best success of their careers in that role. Regardless of who wins the job, it just became that much more difficult to come back against the Astros in the game's final innings.
Houston Astros First Base
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Closer isn't the only position up for grabs in Houston. When Houston decided to part ways with Chris Carter, early in the offseason it was an indication that the club was ready to give Jon Singleton every opportunity to keep the first base job in 2015.
While that's still the likeliest scenario, minor leaguers A.J. Reed and Tyler White will apply the pressure to Singleton this winter.
Singleton was the centerpiece of the Hunter Pence trade years ago and hit 13 homers in his rookie season in 2014. The 24-year-old's power, however, was overshadowed by a 37 percent strikeout percentage and a sub-.300 on-base percentage.
In 2015, Singleton only played in 19 games with Houston. He hit 22 homers in Triple-A but displayed huge swing-and-miss tendencies yet again.
If Singleton struggles to make contact this spring, Reed and White could easily claim a starting role.
Reed won Houston's Minor League Player of the Year after slashing .340/.432/.612 and launching 34 homers between High-A and Double-A last season. White slashed .325/.442/.496 while hitting 14 homers and driving in 99 runs between Double-A and Triple-A, too, and currently leads all Dominican League hitters in on-base percentage and homers while ranking second in RBI, total bases and slugging percentage.
The Astros will enter next season with greater expectations on the heels of a breakout 2015, but the club's biggest question lies at first base. It's Singleton's position to lose, but two blue-collar prospects are breathing right down his neck.
Los Angeles Dodgers Leadoff Hitter
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The offseason hasn't gone as planned for the Los Angeles Dodgers thus far, but there's an underrated issue with the roster that could lead to an interesting decision for new manager Dave Roberts.
L.A. has a collection of talented everyday players, but none profile as legitimate leadoff hitters in 2016. Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted earlier this month that with Jimmy Rollins playing elsewhere and Joc Pederson's starting role in limbo, the leadoff duties could fall at the feet of veteran outfielder Carl Crawford.
Crawford certainly has the pedigree to lead off, but he's not the same player that stole 50 or more bases five different times in the early days of his career. The 34-year-old swiped 11 last year in 69 games, but a slash line of .265/.304/.403 won't be good enough for L.A. in 2016.
Pederson has the athletic ability and walk rate to hit leadoff, but his near-30 percent strikeout percentage is a huge red flag. The 23-year-old did post a .346 on-base percentage, though, so less K's could see him eventually assume the role.
Morosi also tweeted that youngster Micah Johnson and Enrique Hernandez could also be leadoff options for L.A. Johnson, who recently came over as part of the Todd Frazier deal, slashed just .230/.306/.270 in 36 big league games last season, while Hernandez has strikeout issues of his own.
Eventually, one of L.A.'s leadoff candidates will establish themselves as the guy in 2016. But for now, it makes for an interesting conversation and will be a storyline to monitor during spring training.
San Francisco Giants Fifth Starter
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The San Francisco Giants entered the offseason with plans to address their starting rotation, and boy did they ever.
San Fran shelled out a combined $220 million in order to land both Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. While flawed, combining those two hurlers with ace Madison Bumgarner atop the rotation should give the Giants enough starting pitching to flirt with a National League West title.
What follows San Francisco's new trio is where things will get interesting. Jake Peavy, if healthy, will lock down a role, while Matt Cain and Chris Heston figure to duke it out for the rotation's final spot. According to Ben Diamond of Baseball Essential, a shaky back end diminishes the overall talent level of San Fran's starting staff:
"All in all, the Giants’ rotation isn’t as good as it may seem on the surface. The front end is very strong with aces Bumgarner and Cueto, but the supporting cast is anything but. The team will need a big bounce-back year from Samardzija if they want him to be a good third starter, and I’m not optimistic that will happen. In addition, Peavy is a big health risk, and with a capped upside, he’s probably not much more than a fourth starter. Rounding out the rotation is the corpse of Cain or Heston, neither of whom seem to fit the role of even a fifth starter.
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When it comes to Cain or Heston, the decision will be based on which starter earns it this spring because neither earned it last year. Cain posted a 5.79 ERA in 11 starts last season and feels light-years away from a 2.79 ERA in 2012. Heston gave the Giants quality production as a rookie last season, but the 27-year-old fell apart in the second half to the tune of a 4.91 ERA.
The Giants are undoubtedly better off with Cueto and Samardzija in the rotation, but that doesn't mean there aren't still questions surrounding the arms in the back end. Peavy's health and the ability to find a reliable fifth starter will determine just how successful San Fran can be in 2016.
Seattle Mariners Fifth Starter
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It's never a bad thing to have too much starting pitching, but even the Seattle Mariners have to be surprised with the way the offseason has played out.
Before last season, the trio of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton had many pundits picking the Mariners to win the American League West. Fast-forward to the beginning of the offseason, and Iwakuma was entering free agency while Paxton didn't have the same shine after a rough 2016.
With Seattle's rotation in limbo, new general manager Jerry Dipoto made two trades to bolster his staff. First, Seattle acquired right-hander Nate Karns from the Tampa Bay Rays in a six-person deal involving shortstop Brad Miller. Dipoto was't done there, adding southpaw Wade Miley from the Boston Red Sox later on.
But wait! Despite addressing his rotation with those two trades, Dipoto took advantage of the Los Angeles Dodgers' inability to land Iwakuma and re-signed him to a three-year, $45 million contract last week. With Karns, Miley and Iwakuma on board, Seattle's once-shaky rotation has suddenly become quite crowded.
Which begs the question: Who's the odd man out between Karns, former top prospect Taijuan Walker and Paxton? While it needs addressing, Dipoto doesn't see Seattle's current scenario as a bad problem to have.
"Dipoto’s response was that it’s a superfluous question," said Larry Stone of the Seattle Times. "Every team needs all the starters it can get, he said, and this new depth just ensures that the Mariners will be better equipped to endure the challenges of the long, unforgiving season."
It's amazing to see how different Seattle's rotation looks from the start of the offseason to now. The pieces are now in place, and it'll be up to the players to see how they fit together.
Toronto Blue Jays Fifth Starter
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The Toronto Blue Jays weren't able to land David Price or even any hurlers from the second tier of free-agent arms this winter.
That doesn't mean Toronto wasn't active. The Jays re-signed Marco Estrada, traded for right-hander Jesse Chavez and inked veteran lefty J.A. Happ to a three-year, $36 million deal all in November. Although they may not be the most exciting of moves, those three additions give Toronto plenty of options for the season ahead.
"With Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison in hand it would appear that the Toronto Blue Jays have a full rotation for 2016," said Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet.CA. "This may not be the rotation fans had hoped for, but the Blue Jays have five MLB-calibre starters and a still-interesting young hurler in Hutchison."
Even with a makeshift rotation, Toronto's offense is still capable of carrying the team back to the postseason in 2016. The only question that remains is whether Chavez or Hutchison claims the rotation's final spot.
Hutchison is a case study for why the win doesn't hold much weight in today's MLB. The right-hander went 13-5 but posted a 5.57 ERA. Even with his struggles, the 25-year-old has proved he can strike major league hitters out and could earn his way back into Toronto's good graces with a quality spring.
Chavez, like many hurlers seem to do, revitalized his career while with the Oakland A's. The 32-year-old posted a 3.45 ERA as a starter in 2014 and recorded his best-ever WAR a season ago.
In a perfect world, Hutchison finally establishes himself as a reliable starter, allowing Chavez to pitch out of the bullpen and as a spot starter. Whether it plays out that way remains to be seen.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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