Daily Fantasy Football December 20: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

NFL injuries are causing enough roster turnover for two players unlisted on DraftKings' Week 15 database to possibly flourish.

With Thomas Rawls joining Marshawn Lynch on the shelf, the Seattle Seahawks are searching for healthy bodies for their backfield. They apparently weren't desperate enough, however, to give DuJuan Harris a chance. The expected starter earlier this week promptly got waived and later added to the Baltimore Ravens' practice squad.

Suddenly Bryce Brown, Christine Michael and Derrick Coleman will jostle for carries against the Cleveland Browns' No. 29 rushing defense. Only Coleman ($3,500) is a playable option on Sunday. 

Two excluded players could make a major dent in Week 15, which should remind gamers to expect the unexpected. Somebody wacky will make a difference while a stable star falls on his face. Let's see if players can trust certain risers and fallers to maintain those paths through another weekend.

Stock Up

Fozzy Whittaker, RB, Carolina Panthers ($3,000)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Carolina Panthers will pursue their 14th win without Jonathan Stewart, who is officially inactive due to a foot injury. If a clear replacement existed for their bout against the New York Giants, he'd make a popular chalk play.

Before leaving last Sunday's game early, the starting running back had compiled at least 20 carries in eight straight games. There are certainly carries to allocate in his absence, and the Giants have relinquished the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs.

Last Sunday, Fozzy Whittaker received nine touches to Mike Tolbert's eight, but Whittaker made more of his opportunities by reaching the end zone. Throw in rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, who was inactive last weekend, and they are likely poised to share the workload.

“Based on the way Fozzy and Michael played against Atlanta in the second half, you feel comfortable handing them the ball and having them in protections and in routes,” Panthers head coach Ron Rivera told the Charlotte Observer's Joseph Person. “But knowing again we want to get Cameron Artis-Payne some opportunities.”

Tolbert will only deliver value if he vultures a goal-line score. Artis-Payne is a deep tournament flier who hasn't registered a yard since Week 7. If there's anyone to play, it's Whittaker. He's likely to start and at least get 10-15 handoffs, which isn't bad for a minimum-priced player running behind a stout offensive line.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills ($6,200)

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Sammy Watkins' talent was never an issue. After battling shaky quarterback play his rookie year, the Buffalo Bills wide receiver has struggled to cement optimal usage for an offense that has attempted the third-fewest passes.

Over the past three weeks, the Bills finally seemed to have grasped the importance of giving him the ball. Watkins has garnered 349 yards and four scores during those games, moving him closer to No. 1 receiver territory.

He's not quite there yet. The second-year pro is still averaging a mediocre 3.9 catches on 6.4 targets per contest, causing a dependence on volatile big plays. NFL Network's Brian Billick also noticed a maddening trend regarding his diminishing returns as the game progresses:

It's not just him. Watkins scored his last four touchdowns during the opening half, and he continues to take a back seat in the final two quarters:

Stat	1st Half	2nd Half
REC	26	13
REC YD	492	224
TD	5	2

Washington has yielded 7.7 yards per pass attempt, indicating a weakness for big plays. Watkins could have another long score in the tank, but it'd be even better if Buffalo keeps looking his way afterword.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense ($3,700)

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

For a unit saddled with negative fantasy points in consecutive weeks (3 and 4) this season, the Kansas City Chiefs defense has caught fire.

Since posting minus-seven points against the Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers, they're averaging 13.2 DraftKings points per game. That's more than tight end Travis Kelce, who remains stuck in Andy Reid's play-calling purgatory.

Kansas City ranks No. 8 in total defense, No. 5 in Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency and No. 4, tied with Carolina, with 18.7 points allowed per bout. Accumulating 24 sacks over the past six games has afforded the grouping a more reliable source of fantasy points than turnovers.

A confluence of elite defense and great matchup makes Kansas City one of Sunday's top two plays alongside the Seattle Seahawks, who cost $4,200 against the Cleveland Browns. Last week, the Seahawks limited the debilitated Ravens to six points, and the Chiefs have forced more sacks and turnovers than the defending NFC champs. Even at $3,700, they're worth the investment.

Stock Down

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers ($5,500)

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Good news: Philip Rivers won't face the Chiefs again this season. The San Diego Chargers mustered three points in each loss, and the quarterback scored single-digit DraftKings points each time:

Week	OPP	CMP-ATT	YDS	TD	INT	DK PTS
11	KC	19-30	178	0	1	6.92
12	@ JAX	29-43	300	4	0	31.9
13	DEN	18-35	202	0	1	7.08
14	@ KC	24-43	263	0	1	9.92

After gushing over Kansas City's defense, those struggles make sense. Boasting the top defense against tight ends in terms of DraftKings points allowed, they're an especially difficult matchup for Rivers and Co. Take Antonio Gates out of the fold, and Rivers can't turn his understudy wideouts into solid contributors.

Since losing Keenan Allen seven weeks ago, Rivers has averaged 6.34 yards per pass attempt and gone three of five games without throwing a touchdown. Attempting the most passes hasn't blocked his decay into a low-tier No. 1 quarterback.

He's now available for $5,500, $100 more than AJ McCarron. This is the week to buy low, as the Miami Dolphins allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt and a 65.0 completion percentage. His 2004 draft-day trade partner, Eli Manning, went 27-of-31 for 337 yards and four touchdowns against them on Monday night.

Free from the Chiefs and Denver Broncos, Rivers will return to fantasy relevancy.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($4,000)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

A player's stock can't drop as far as DeMarco Murray's. After a slow start, he gradually rebuilt his reputation as a high-quality starter, only to again fall down the Philadelphia Eagles' depth chart.

The big free-agent signing has registered 91 total yards over the past three games, averaging 2.7 yards per rush. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Nov. 8. Darren Sproles has since scored two, and Ryan Mathews picked up one in two games.

It's not head coach Chip Kelly trying to make a grand statement or motivate Murray. He's simply not their best option, recording a microscopic 3.5 yards per rush this season. Who could have imagined a running back struggling a year after stockpiling 497 total touches, including the postseason? (Oh, everybody? OK then.)

To little surprise, 2014's insane workload has come back to haunt the 27-year-old. No running back suffered a steeper DraftKings price cut than Murray, who fell from $5,000 to $4,000. After requiring a $6,100 investment on Thanksgiving, nobody will touch him for far less on Sunday night, when the Eagles are likely to play from behind against the Arizona Cardinals.

Shrewd tournament players will exploit recency bias and ride stars to profit after off weeks. (See the Rivers section above.) This isn't one of those cases. Murray has not earned a promotion back to the front seat, so expect a timeshare where Sproles shines the brightest.

Brandon LaFell, WR, New England Patriots ($4,500)

George Bridges/Associated Press

Chasing a nurturing environment backfires when the player can't redeem his chances. With key New England Patriots skill players hurt, Brandon LaFell should be offering fantasy value by default. Instead, he's turning steady looks into a whole lot of nothing.

The 29-year-old wide receiver has amassed eight or nine targets in each of the past four games, all without Julian Edelman. He amassed 161 total yards, giving him a grand 4.73 yards per target. The starting wideout in an offense led by Tom Brady has not scored a touchdown all year.

In two fewer games, LaFell has received the same amount of targets (64) as Watkins. He has accrued 401 yards to Watkins' 716 yards, only once surpassing 66 yards. As noted by Pro Football Focus, he doesn't have the best hands:

Despite his terrible outputs, he still costs $4,500, more than Michael Floyd ($4,400) and Tyler Lockett ($4,200). Don't be shocked if he goes the way of Davante Adams and falls to the wayside, especially with Keshawn Martin gaining reps and Rob Gronkowski back in the fold.

Fantasy scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted.

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