Russell Athletic Bowl Betting: North Carolina vs. Baylor Odds, Pick

Injuries and the law of averages caught up to Baylor late this season, as the Bears finished 1-5 against the spread. They've also been upset in both of their last two bowl games. In what sizes up to be one of the best of the second-tier bowls, the Bears tangle with North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Tuesday, December 29.

Russell Athletic Bowl point spread: The Bears opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 49.2-38.4 Bears

Why the Tar Heels can cover the spread

North Carolina opened this season with a somewhat puzzling loss to South Carolina and then won its next 11 games in a row, hitting the 40-point mark seven times and earning its first berth in the ACC Championship Game. The Heels then gave top-ranked Clemson a scare, pulling to within one score at 45-37 with a minute to go, but a phantom penalty on an onside kick they recovered robbed them of a chance at one more possession.

Still, UNC finished 11-2 overall, 8-1 in conference play. Prior to the title-game defeat, the Tar Heels outgained their previous seven opponents and outrushed five of them.

North Carolina ranks 20th in the country in total offense, throwing the ball for 264 yards per game and running it for 223 more. And while the Heels defense struggled at times, it also held eight opponents to 21 points or fewer.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Baylor started 8-0 this season, scoring at least 56 points six times. But the Bears lost one quarterback and then another and eventually had a fourth-stringer on the field. They dropped three of their last four, including a 23-17 decision to Texas in the season finale.

Early word is third-stringer Chris Johnson, who did a nice job in a victory over Oklahoma State a few weeks ago, will get the start.

Even as Baylor struggled down the stretch, it still outgained and outrushed each of its last three opponents. The Bears outgained the Longhorns by 172 yards but committed four turnovers, one of which probably cost them the game.

Baylor's defense ranks only 59th in the country overall, but a lot of the yardage it gave up came as opponents played catch-up.

Smart pick

It's difficult to figure how Baylor might perform offensively, but the Bears own an edge on defense. North Carolina's defense, meanwhile, is susceptible, especially to the run. Despite the situation at quarterback, the smart money here backs Baylor.

Betting trends

• Baylor is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games.
• North Carolina is 2-6 straight up in its last eight games in December.
• North Carolina is 2-5 straight up in its last seven bowl games.
• The total has gone under in the last six Russell Athletic Bowls.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.