2016 NFL Draft Scouting Notebook for Week 15

The Scout's Report

— USC linebacker Su'a Cravens announced on Twitter this week he plans to enter the 2016 NFL draft. I laid out some potential landing spots for him in this video. And for the many people asking on Twitter, Cravens should play weak-side linebacker in the NFL.

— Former head coach Frank Beamer announced, per Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch, that Virginia Tech cornerback Kendall Fuller will enter the 2016 NFL draft, following in the footsteps of his brothers Kyle, Corey and Vincent. Fuller had a late second-round grade when I saw him over the summer, but how well he's recovered from the knee injury that cut his 2015 season short will have a huge impact on his draft stock.

— Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche had an eventful weekend. Saturday night, the 6'4", 295-pound lineman fell 15 feet from a hotel ledge in Atlanta after allegedly breaking out his room window, according to an incident report released by the Atlanta Police Department. That fall required an ambulance ride and stitches, and he was subsequently charged with possession of marijuana. How this will affect his draft stock remains to be seen, but area scouts had already warned me that Nkemdiche was "overrated" by the media and "living off his high school reputation."

— I went into the weekend planning to write about Nkemdiche this week, and then this incident happened and the direction changed. But in preparing to write up Nkemdiche, I reached out to area scouts for a quick comment. This one stuck with me: "More like early second round, not early first round with those question marks on and off the field."

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

— It would be a big surprise, but I've heard from multiple area scouts that Alabama defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson may return to school for his senior season. He is young (20 years old) and wants to get his master's degree before heading to the NFL.

— Team sources at Michigan State continue to indicate their belief that tackle Jack Conklin will return to school for his senior season. That makes sense given that Conklin's 2015 season was full of injuries.

— More on him below, but Houston wide receiver Demarcus Ayers is getting mentioned by area scouts as a player likely to enter the 2016 NFL draft. He's a bit undersized (5'11", 190 lbs) but was an excellent receiver between the hashes and a playmaker in the return game.

— Sources at Mississippi State expect defensive lineman Chris Jones to declare for the upcoming draft. Jones is a phenomenal athlete and will wow at the combine, but scouts I've spoken with are hot and cold on his background. I currently have Jones in the second round of my big board.

Five Names to Know

5. No. 98 DL Sheldon Rankins, Louisville

Sheldon Rankins is a beast on the Louisville defensive line, but at 6'1" and 303 pounds, there are questions about where he'll play in the NFL. I like him as a Mike Daniels-style 5-technique, but he has the skill set to line up in any gap the defense wants him in. He's flying up my board each time I see him play and currently has a second-round grade.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

4. No. 10 QB Brandon Allen, Arkansas

One of my favorite under-the-radar players in this class, Brandon Allen might be the sleeper quarterback of this draft. He has a good arm and quick feet and reads the field with swift, accurate decisions. As a thrower he won't wow you, but Allen's compact delivery and plus accuracy will get him a long look from NFL scouts. He's my No. 6 quarterback in the class.

3. No. 28 FS Jalen Mills, LSU

As true free safeties go, Jalen Mills is one of the better ones in this class. He's rangy, and with experience at cornerback you have to like how well he can line up and take on slot receivers in nickel and dime packages. Mills isn't the best tackler, but he can be productive there. He had an ankle injury this summer that may need to be looked at, but he's promising as an early-impact cover man.

2. No. 10 WR Demarcus Ayers, Houston

As promised above, here's more on Ayers. He's an ideal slot receiver for the next level but has the juice to line up outside the hashes too. And in the return game, he's special with excellent burst and open-field vision. One thing I love about Ayers, besides his 4.3 speed, is that he's fearless over the middle and sure-handed (two drops on the year) enough to make an impact between the numbers.

1. No. 22 RB Aaron Green, TCU

The 2016 draft class looks to be strong on all-around running back talents, but don't sleep on Aaron Green. The TCU back has good power for his frame (5'10", 202 lbs), and even though his 4.6 speed isn't amazing, he's a slippery runner with good hands in the open field.

Scouting Report: Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss

Throughout the 2016 draft season, I'll highlight one draft prospect each week with a first-look scouting report.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

No. 5 Defensive Lineman Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss (6'4", 295 lbs estimate)

A true junior and three-year starter, Nkemdiche is a former consensus No. 1 high school recruit and has been a first-team Freshman All-American, second-team All-American twice, a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award and a semifinalist for the Lombardi Award and Chuck Bednarik Award.

Strengths

Nkemdiche has rare size, speed and overall athleticism for the defensive tackle position. He easily passes the eyeball test on the field, and on the hoof he is one of the most freakish players in college football. Nkemdiche has added an estimated 10 pounds in college and has a frame to play inside at defensive tackle or outside at defensive end in the NFL.

An explosive first step is Nkemdiche's best move. He's able to stun blockers with his quickness and can easily erase their cushion. Once he's inside a blocker's reach, he has the speed and power to cause a lot of problems for the offense. Even if he's not getting to the quarterback for the sack, Nkemdiche creates opportunities for his teammates and produces pressures and hurries in the backfield.

When he wants to dominate, Nkemdiche is a handful, and in 2015 he saved his best football for the big games. Against Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State he combined for three sacks and 15 quarterback hurries, according to my charting.

Weaknesses

We're going to spend a lot of time talking about the off-field stuff with Nkemdiche, but the on-field negatives warrant discussion too.

Watching his 2015 film, you notice a player who is very hot or cold. He has stretches of games where he makes no impact (notably against Fresno State and Memphis) and struggles to make an impact. If looking purely at sacks, he collected those sparingly with three sacks coming in 11 games as a junior.

Nkemdiche's technique needs work. Too often he looks to hesitate at the snap and beat his blocker (often a left guard from his defensive right tackle position) with a counter move instead of engaging off the snap and ripping or bull-rushing the blocker. This works in college but will be met with technique and agility in the NFL.

Learning to be a complete pass-rusher is something he must do.

Now to the off-field stuff. Nkemdiche had two incidents involving police during his time at Ole Miss, and a photo circulated on social media that apparently showed him holding a bong. The first was an altercation at a frat party where he and his brother Denzel allegedly assaulted a man, who in turn sued them for $2 million in damages. No charges were filed. The second issue is the most recent citation for marijuana possession after Nkemdiche broke out a hotel window and fell 15 feet to the pavement.

Outside of this, there are concerns from NFL teams I've spoken to about who Nkemdiche is associated with. Teams believe his brothers, Denzel and Bryan, are negative influences. His parents are both successful—his dad is a cardiologist and his mom is a politician in Nigeria—but NFL scouts are concerned that his brothers have more influence on him and that they'll follow him to wherever he plays. That's the biggest red flag for now, with teams already digging into his past before the hotel incident in Atlanta.

Pro Comparison: Sheldon Richardson, New York Jets

The Big Board

NFL teams are meeting this week to start the process of stacking their 2015 player rankings, and since it's my goal to mirror what an NFL team does (albeit sharing that info with you guys and not keeping it in-house), I'm going through the same process with my few assistants this week.

Which players are ranked on reputation? Which players did we really not like the film on? Which players did we like the film on but didn't like the measurables or off-field stuff on? All that goes into setting a grade and ranking players. And while it's not quite time to assign grades (that will happen in late February and early March), my fall grades are coming into focus. With those changes setting in, here's an updated top-50 list:

Rank	Player	Position	College
1	Jared Goff	QB	California
2	Jaylon Smith	LB	Notre Dame
3	Joey Bosa	DE	Ohio State
4	Ronnie Stanley	T	Notre Dame
5	Vernon Hargreaves	CB	Florida
6	Laremy Tunsil	T	Ole Miss
7	Jalen Ramsey	FS	FSU
8	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
9	DeForest Buckner	DL	Oregon
10	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
11	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
12	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
13	Shaq Lawson	DE	Clemson
14	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
15	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
16	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
17	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
18	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
19	Jarran Reed	NT	Alabama
20	Maliek Collins	DL	Nebraska
21	Kenny Clark	DL	UCLA
22	Shon Coleman	T	Auburn
23	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
24	A'Shawn Robinson	DL	Alabama
25	Jayron Kearse	FS	Clemson
26	Su'a Cravens	LB	USC
27	Emmanuel Ogbah	DE	Oklahoma State
28	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
29	Austin Johnson	DL	Penn State
30	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
31	Noah Spence	EDGE	Eastern Kentucky
32	Darron Lee	LB	Ohio State
33	Taylor Decker	T	Ohio State
34	Jeremy Cash	SS	Duke
35	Cameron Sutton	CB	Tennessee
36	Jerald Hawkins	T	LSU
37	Josh Doctson	WR	TCU
38	Tre'Davious White	CB	LSU
39	Joshua Perry	LB	Ohio State
40	Vonn Bell	SS	Ohio State
41	Tyler Boyd	WR	Pitt
42	Jonathan Allen	DE	Alabama
43	Cody Whitehair	G	Kansas State
44	Sheldon Rankins	DL	Louisville
45	Jordan Jenkins	EDGE	Georgia
46	Vince Biegel	EDGE	Wisconsin
47	Jonathan Bullard	EDGE	Florida
48	Adolphus Washington	DL	Ohio State
49	Darian Thompson	FS	Boise State
50	Paul Perkins	RB	UCLA

Parting Shots

10. The 2016 Senior Bowl roster is starting to take shape with another announcement of accepted invitations coming out each Tuesday. Here's the roster as it stands now, but remember, players can (and will) drop out between now and late January:

QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State	DE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky
QB Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State	DE Jihad Ward, Illinois
QB Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech	DE Dadi Nicolas, Virginia Tech
RB Jonathan Williams, Arkansas	DE Sheldon Rankins, Louisville
RB Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech	DE Charles Tapper, Oklahoma
RB Tyler Ervin, San Jose State	DE Jason Fanaika, Utah
FB Dan Vitale, Northwestern	DT Adolphus Washington, Ohio State
FB Chris Swain, Navy	DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech
WR Chris Moore, Cincinnati	DT Matt Ioannidis, Temple
WR Jay Lee, Baylor	ILB Tyler Matakevich, Temple
WR Braxton Miller, Ohio State	ILB Kentrell Brothers, Missouri
WR Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia	ILB Josh Forrest, Kentucky
WR Josh Doctson, TCU	ILB Jared Norris, Utah
WR Leonte Carroo, Rutgers	ILB Antonio Morrison, Florida
WR Jordan Payton, UCLA	ILB Blake Martinez, Stanford
WR Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma	ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, West Virginia
WR Kolby Listenbee, TCU	OLB Deion Jones, LSU
TE Jerell Adams, South Carolina	OLB Joshua Perry, Ohio State
TE Tyler Higbee, Western Kentucky	OLB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia
TE Henry Krieger Coble, Iowa	OLB Kyler Fackrell, Utah State
TE Nick Vannett, Ohio State	OLB Joe Schobert, Wisconsin
TE Jake McGee, Florida	OLB Eric Striker, Oklahoma
TE Bryce Williams, East Carolina	CB Tavon Young, Temple
T Vadal Alexander, LSU	CB James Bradberry, Samford
T Willie Beavers, Western Michigan	CB Deiondre' Hall, Northern Iowa
T Joe Dahl, Washington State	CB DeAndre Houston-Carson, William & Mary
T Jason Spriggs, Indiana	CB William Jackson III, Houston
T Le'Raven Clark, Texas Tech	CB Sean Davis, Maryland
T Taylor Decker, Ohio State	CB Maurice Canady, Virginia
T John Theus, Georgia	CB Eric Murray, Minnesota
T Kyle Murphy, Stanford	CB Harlan Miller, SE Louisiana
T Spencer Drango, Baylor	S Kevin Byard, Middle Tennessee
T Cole Toner, Harvard	S Darian Thompson, Boise State
G Josh Garnett, Stanford	S Jalen Mills, LSU
G Christian Westerman, Arizona State	S Jeremy Cash, Duke
G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State	S Miles Killebrew, Southern Utah
G Sebastian Tretola, Arkansas	S Jordan Lucas, Penn State
G Connor McGovern, Missouri	LS Jeff Overbaugh, San Diego State
C Evan Boehm, Missouri	LS Jimmy Landes, Baylor
C Nick Martin, Notre Dame	K Ka'imi Fairbairn, UCLA
	P Alex Kinal, Wake Forest
	P Riley Dixon, Syracuse

9. Underclassman declarations are starting to be announced as players make plans before the January 18 deadline to enter the 2016 NFL draft. Here's a look at the notable announcements thus far:

Expected to Enter	Expected to Return	On the Fence
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State	RB Corey Clement, Wisconsin	RB Wayne Gallman, Clemson
RB Jonathan Williams, Arkansas	WR Will Fuller, Notre Dame	WR Michael Thomas, Ohio State
WR Demarcus Ayers, Houston	WR Mike Williams, Clemson	TE Jordan Leggett, Clemson
WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt	TE Jake Butt, Michigan	T Jack Conklin, Michigan State
WR Corey Coleman, Baylor	TE Evan Engram, Ole Miss	DE Kevin Dodd, Clemson
WR Demarcus Robinson, Florida	G Pat Elflein, Ohio State	DT Andrew Billings, Baylor
WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss	DE Charles Harris, Missouri	DT A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama
T Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame	DE Chris Wormley, Michigan	DT Maliek Collins, Nebraska
T Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss	DT Darius Hamilton, Rutgers
DE Joey Bosa, Ohio State	LB Jarrad Davis, Florida
DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson	CB Jourdan Lewis, Michigan
DE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma State
DL Kenny Clark, UCLA
DL Yannick Ngakoue, Maryland
LB Su'a Cravens, USC
LB Leonard Floyd, Georgia
LB Myles Jack, UCLA
LB Darron Lee, Ohio State
LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame
LB Scooby Wright, Arizona
CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson
CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida
CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech
FS Jayron Kearse, Clemson
FS Jalen Ramsey, FSU

8. With Will Fuller's return to Notre Dame and more time spent on wide receivers this week, I shook up my rankings at the position since my last update. Here's a quick look at the top 10 wide receivers in the class as of December 17.

1. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
2. Michael Thomas, Ohio State
3. Corey Coleman, Baylor
4. Josh Doctson, TCU
5. Tyler Boyd, Pitt
6. Pharoh Cooper, South Carolina
7. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
8. Braxton Miller, Ohio State
9. Cayleb Jones, Arizona
10. Rashard Higgins, Colorado State

7. With a big part of my job spent evaluating NFL players for weekly videos and our big NFL 1000 project, it's starting to sink in that we (the media, fans, coaches, scouts) need to give edge players on both sides of the ball more time to develop and make an impact.

Let's look at the 2015 rookie offensive tackles. Rob Havenstein is playing well, but he's a right tackle coming from a pro-style system at Wisconsin. Of the Round 1 tackles (Ereck Flowers, Andrus Peat, Cedric Ogbuehi, D.J. Humphries), none has done exceptionally well so far. The same holds true for the 2014 first-rounders at tackle (Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, Taylor Lewan and Ja'Wuan James). And the same is true for the 2013 first-rounders (Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, Lane Johnson, D.J. Fluker and Justin Pugh).

Flip it over to the defense, and few edge players are making an impact in their rookie seasons. Dante Fowler gets a pass for injury, but Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree and Shane Ray have come on slowly in their first year in the NFL. But let's resist the urge to call any of these players busts. Instead, maybe it just takes a minute for most players to adjust to the NFL.

A month ago, most of the NFL wanted to call Dee Ford a bust, but the 2014 first-rounder has produced more and more each week, culminating in a three-sack game against San Diego. Other second-year players such as Shaq Barrett (Denver), Aaron Lynch (San Francisco) and DeMarcus Lawrence (Dallas) are showing great progress in big roles. Of course, players like Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald hit the ground running at full speed and have only improved, and there will always be exceptions, but the desire to instantly grade every player and expect instant results isn't fair to anyone involved.

6. The Senior Bowl announced a really cool program this week, and it's worth talking about here.

With roughly 100 draft-eligible players heading to Mobile, Alabama, the week of January 25, executive director Phil Savage has partnered with Morgan Stanley Global Sports & Entertainment (GSE) to help educate the prospective NFL players about their financial futures. Even better, the players' parents are encouraged to join in.

This is something the NFL has been missing, and even the rookie symposium the NFL puts on every year struggles to cover all the information an incoming rookie needs. Getting to the players before they ever sign an NFL contract, like GSE can at the Senior Bowl, is invaluable.

5. If you've been reading this article in the year-and-change it has been running, you know I'm big on accountability and sharing my hits and misses. To further emphasize this, I've released my draft rankings for every class I've graded. That covers the 2007 draft and the years 2009 until now. You can find this info in a handy Google Document for your bookmarking pleasure.

4. Speaking of accountability (how about that transition...), let's talk about AJ McCarron. The former Alabama quarterback filled in for an injured Andy Dalton last Sunday and will be taking the reins of the Cincinnati offense for the time being. What did I see from McCarron before the 2014 draft? Here are notes from my scouting report.

McCarron ended up No. 82 overall on my board, which made him the No. 8-ranked quarterback. I saw a good-sized quarterback with an average arm and great football IQ. McCarron did exactly what the Alabama scheme asked of him, but that limited his explosive and creative plays. He was the definition of a system quarterback.

If you like confidence in a quarterback, you're going to love McCarron, and he has the requisite passing skills to take advantage of good talent around him. Before the draft, I put his arm strength between Eli Manning and Andy Dalton, and that's where I'd put him today too.

The Bengals can win with McCarron if his decision-making catches up to the speed of the NFL. That got him into trouble against the Pittsburgh Steelers in his first action, but Hue Jackson is a great offensive coordinator and should be able to help with easy, fast decisions to get McCarron warmed up and in a passing rhythm.

3. These are the things I think about when my flight out of LaGuardia is delayed and finally cancelled: If I had to build an offensive line from the 2016 NFL draft class, what would it look like?

Ronnie Stanley would be my left tackle. He's athletic and patient, shows great balance and knows how to use his hands like a veteran. Kansas State's Cody Whitehair would line up at left guard. He plays left tackle for the Wildcats but has tremendous toughness, instincts and the power in his lower body to become a good pass protector and run-blocker on the left side.

To anchor the middle of the line, give me Alabama's Ryan Kelly. He's a little undersized at around 295 pounds, but his use of length and his timing are the best in this class at center. He's also one tough son of a gun, and I love that in an interior blocker.

LSU's Vadal Alexander would move from tackle to right guard—something I expect he'll do in the NFL—and become the power base to the run game. And to top it off, Ole Miss left tackle Laremy Tunsil will take his big, strong punch and play right tackle to round out the 2016 draft offensive line.

2. The dreaded Black Monday is three weeks away—that's the Monday after Week 17 ends, when most NFL teams fire coaches and general managers—and it's not too soon to look at the top general manager candidates out there. Here's my short list.

• Eliot Wolf, Green Bay Packers
• Chris Ballard, Kansas City Chiefs
• Eric DeCosta, Baltimore Ravens
• Nick Caserio, New England Patriots
• George Paton, Minnesota Vikings
• Chris Polian, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Brandon Beane, Carolina Panthers
• Trent Kirchner, Seattle Seahawks

1. This week, a few tweets were brought back into circulation from October 2010, at which time I wasn't a Cam Newton fan. And it's true, I wasn't. I saw Newton play at Blinn College and thought he was more Tim Tebow than Ben Roethlisberger. That was a wrong impression, and even though I corrected it before the 2011 draft class (Newton ranked No. 10 for me that year), I put out an incorrect evaluation, and the masses on Twitter found it.

But what did I learn from Newton the prospect versus Newton the pro player?

Newton taught me to see what a player can do and not focus so hard on what he doesn't do at the college level. I also learned to ignore the noise about character concerns and either trust my own experiences with the player or talk to coaches and teammates directly. I like to hope that in the five years since, I've learned to be a better evaluator. It's by finding these wrong evaluations and accepting the miss that you learn from them.

Five years later, Newton is my leading candidate for MVP, and I'm a huge fan of his play, but we also can't look back at October 2010 and think this Newton was that player. Like J.J. Watt, Newton has developed and evolved as a quarterback thanks to his talents, great coaching, patient management and an amazing work ethic. And that's part of player evaluation—seeing who they are now and projecting who they can become—but it's also where most draft misses happen. Even ranking Newton at No. 10 overall was far too low in a stacked 2011 draft class. And that's a lesson I'm still learning from.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.