Green Bay Packers vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers (9-4) look to move one step closer to their fifth straight NFC North title when they visit the Oakland Raiders (6-7) on Sunday. The Packers have won each of the past six meetings with the Raiders, and they are 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games versus AFC West opponents.

Point spread: The Packers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-20.0 Raiders

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay has quietly won three of its last four games both SU and ATS to seize control of the lead in the NFC North.

Most will remember the one loss during that stretch, a 17-13 setback at home to the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, and the narrow 27-23 victory on the road against the Detroit Lions the following Thursday. But the other two games the team won during that stretch were decided by an average of 19 points.

Last week in a 28-7 win over the Dallas Cowboys as six-point home favorites, the Packers used a dominant ground game that was missing over the previous few weeks. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy took over the play-calling duties and made sure running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks got enough carries to make a difference in the game. They responded with 195 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland has been one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. However, inconsistency has plagued the Raiders, who have alternated wins and losses in their last four games and failed to win more than two games in a row. Regardless, the talent is definitely there on both sides of the ball to exploit the weaknesses of the Packers.

Khalil Mack is coming off a five-sack performance against the Denver Broncos in a 15-12 victory last week, and he was definitely the difference-maker in that game. Mack will look to take advantage of a weak Green Bay offensive line and should be able to get some valuable insight from former Packer Charles Woodson, who will be facing his old team for the first time since returning to Oakland, where he started his career.

Smart pick

The fact that Green Bay is favored by just a field goal in this spot on the road says a lot about the Raiders and how much respect they are getting from oddsmakers.

The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos are the only teams that were favored by more at Oakland this season. The Broncos earned a 16-10 win as 4.5-point road chalk, while the Ravens lost 37-33 as six-point faves. The Packers should be favored by more points and have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, so take them to win and cover.

Betting trends

The Raiders are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after a win.

The total has gone under in eight of the Packers' last 10 games.

The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.