Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 6's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
If you thought the hot stove was going to cool off in time for the holidays, well, you were wrong. We've seen a handful of blockbuster deals go down in recent days.
There was Jason Heyward's eight-year, $184 million free-agent pact with the Chicago Cubs and Johnny Cueto's six-year, $130 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, which took two of the biggest free agents off the board.
Then there was the five-player haul Philadelphia got from Houston in exchange for closer Ken Giles—a package that included former No. 1 draft pick Mark Appel—that removed a number of valuable trade chips from the market.
Crazy as it may seem, we could be in store for even more action as we continue to cross off the shopping days left until Christmas.
Have escalating prices convinced a perennial contender to close up shop for the winter? Are the top free-agent outfielders all going to benefit from Heyward's massive payday? Could one of baseball's best up-and-coming stars be traded before Opening Day?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: The Market for High-Priced Outfielders Is Disappearing
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After Jason Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, it seemed a foregone conclusion that the remaining Big Three—Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton—would have little trouble landing their own nine-figure contracts.
But the teams that can afford to hand out such a deal—and need an outfielder—are few and far between.
- Baltimore: A seven-year, $154 million offer to Chris Davis doesn't automatically mean the Orioles would extend the same to Cespedes, Gordon or Upton.
- Detroit: Adding an outfielder is more of a want than a need for Detroit, but as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press noted, you can never rule anything out with Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, who will spend what it takes to bring a World Series title to Detroit.
- Kansas City: With much of its core potentially departing as free agents over the next two years, a list that includes Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, the Royals can't afford to tie up a significant chunk of future payroll in a high-priced free agent.
- Los Angeles (AL): The Angels have the need and the financial wherewithal to sign any of the three.
- New York (NL): Assistant general manager John Ricco told ESPN's Adam Rubin as the winter meetings were getting underway that Cespedes was "looking at a deal that would be north of what we would consider." The same holds true for Gordon and Upton.
- San Francisco: Bolstering the rotation with Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija has the Giants right up against its budget limits, team sources tell Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com.
- St. Louis: General manager John Mozeliak tells the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold the Cardinals won't be making a "dynamic signing," which the Big Three would certainly be.
That's one team that can definitely afford to sign one of the top outfielders available (the Angels), two that might be able to (the Orioles and Tigers)...and that's it.
While the next tier of available free-agent outfielders, which includes the likes of Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra and Denard Span, may not be on the same level as the Big Three, they've all got lengthy track records of success and would be fine additions for any team with a need—at a fraction of the cost.
Something's got to give—and it's not going to be a team caving in to what it perceives as unreasonable demands on the part of a player.
Fiction: St. Louis Won't Make a Significant Addition This Offseason
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A number of St. Louis fans have worked themselves into a panic over general manager John Mozeliak's recent comments to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold about the team having no plans to make a "dynamic signing" this offseason.
But it's an overreaction to—or a misinterpretation of—what Mozeliak actually said.
"There isn’t anything now that we’re chasing with a nine-figure contract," he told Goold. "We can take the time to see what we have in the players we control. Obviously, we’re always open to adjusting.”
Nowhere in his statement does Mozeliak say the Cardinals are closing up shop until catchers and pitchers report to spring training. He merely says that the team has no plans to bring in a big-ticket player, as it attempted to do by pursuing David Price and trying to retain Jason Heyward.
The Cardinals haven't been one of baseball's most successful franchises over the past decade because they've gotten lucky. Mozeliak knows what he's doing, and there are plenty of quality options still available that won't cost a fortune to sign.
You could build a quality major league rotation with the starters that are still on the market, a list that includes Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy and Japanese import Kenta Maeda. Any one of them could wind up in Cardinals red and white.
St. Louis will add the pieces it needs to remain a legitimate contender in the National League.
Fact: Brandon Phillips Will Accept a Trade to Washington
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For years, the biggest obstacle to Cincinnati trading longtime second baseman Brandon Phillips has been...Brandon Phillips, who was seemingly uninterested in waiving his no-trade rights to facilitate a deal.
But the veteran infielder now appears to have a chance to reunite with former manager Dusty Baker in Washington, with Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reporting the Reds and Nationals have been discussing a deal that would send prospects to Cincinnati in exchange for the 34-year-old.
By all accounts, Baker and Phillips developed a strong relationship over their six years together in Cincinnati. And the chance to join a contender has to hold some appeal for the sure-handed veteran, who has played in a total of nine postseason games over his 14-year career.
Washington will have to do some convincing on its end, whether it be in the form of a contract extension or a bump in salary, but given the team's desire to add a second baseman, per Rosenthal, that doesn't figure to be much of an issue.
Ultimately, neither will Phillips' no-trade rights, which he'll gladly waive to reunite with his old pal Baker.
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Fiction: The Indians Would Trade Jason Kipnis
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Before San Francisco signed Johnny Cueto, ESPN's Buster Olney reported the Giants had discussed a deal with Cleveland for Carlos Carrasco, but talks essentially ended when the Indians asked for first baseman Brandon Belt and second baseman Joe Panik in return.
In fact, the Indians have asked the Giants about Panik on more than one occasion this winter, according to the Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes. That's led to speculation that the Indians—were they successful in obtaining Panik—would then look to trade incumbent second baseman Jason Kipnis.
But it makes little sense for the Indians to trade Kipnis, a fan favorite who signed a team-friendly six-year, $52.5 million extension before the 2014 season began, even if the team were to acquire Panik. Lest we forget, Kipnis was drafted as an outfielder.
Panik—or another second baseman—wouldn't push Kipnis out of town. They'd merely push him out of the infield.
Fiction: The Astros Are Shopping George Springer
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One of the more surprising tidbits to emerge from the winter meetings was a report from the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich that the Astros were listening to offers for a number of their outfielders, including Carlos Gomez and George Springer.
When asked if anyone on the roster was untouchable, Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow made it clear that there's no such thing:
"It’s a tricky question to answer. Because if you have good players, other clubs are going to ask you about them and any time you get an inbound inquiry on any player, you’re going to at least look at it and talk about it with your group. I think for us, we’ve got young core players. That starts with (Dallas) Keuchel, (Jose) Altuve, (George) Springer, (Carlos) Correa. ...
I don’t think anybody in that group would be going anywhere any time soon. ... (But) we listen. We talk to clubs about everything. There’s nothing out of bounds.
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While you can never say never, the Astros didn't embark on a painful rebuilding process only to tear things down now that things have started to go in their favor. Breaking up the band makes little sense, especially when it involves a young, controllable cornerstone piece such as Springer.
Luhnow may not consider anyone on his roster to be "untouchable," but there's a better chance of the Astros ceasing operations than there is of the team trading a player like Springer or Correa, who could both become perennial MVP candidates for the next decade.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk the Hot Stove League and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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