Win-Win Trade Ideas for Top Remaining MLB Trade Chips
At the beginning of December, before the winter meetings took place, we published an article breaking down 10 potential win-win trade ideas based on players believed to be available on the trade market.
Now that a flurry of action has taken place and the market has changed considerably, it seems like an appropriate time for an updated article of the same ilk.
Finding a win-win trade situation is oftentimes easier said than done, and one side will always look like the winner right off the bat. But it's certainly not impossible for a trade to be a win-win.
So with that in mind, what follows is a look at five potential trade ideas centered around some of the top names that have popped up on the rumor mill so far this offseason, complete with packages that could be considered a win for both sides.
RF Jay Bruce to the Los Angeles Angels
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To LAA: RF Jay Bruce
The Los Angeles Angels' search for a left-handed power bat and an everyday left fielder continues, and one player who could be the answer to both areas of need is Cincinnati's Jay Bruce.
The market for Bruce has been slow to develop this offseason, no doubt due in part to the depth of the free-agent outfield class. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reported there have only been a "couple of feelers" on him so far.
The 28-year-old has suffered through back-to-back disappointing seasons, hitting just .222/.288/.406 since the start of 2014 after posting an .826 OPS and averaging 30 home runs and 94 RBI over the previous four years.
Bruce is owed $12.5 million this coming season, with a $13 million option that includes a $1 million buyout for 2017.
Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported that the team was targeting a "short-term outfield answer," so Bruce would fit the bill.
Provided he's fully healthy, Bruce could see his numbers rebound with a move to a team like the Angels that is expected to contend—especially since he'll potentially be playing for a shot at a big contract next winter.
To CIN: OF Chad Hinshaw, SP/RP Jake Jewell, RP Greg Mahle
The Cincinnati Reds likely won't land a top prospect of any sort for Bruce, but unloading his salary and opening up his at-bats for one of the younger players makes sense, and at the very least, he should be able to net them a few midlevel prospects like the ones highlighted above.
Chad Hinshaw has steadily progressed through the Angels' system after being taken as a college senior in the 15th round of the 2013 draft, and he should develop into a solid defensive outfielder.
The 25-year-old hit .289/.391/.365 with 18 extra-base hits and 27 steals in 263 at-bats for Double-A this past season. He followed that up with a .349/.397/.508 in 63 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.
Jake Jewell, 22, went 6-8 with a 4.77 ERA, 1.266 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 111.1 innings for Single-A Burlington this past season, making 15 starts and 16 relief appearances.
A closer in college, the development of his changeup will ultimately determine whether he sticks as a starter. But if not, he has the fastball/slider combination to succeed out of the bullpen.
Greg Mahle, also 22, split last season between High-A and Double-A and posted a 3.26 ERA, 1.276 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 and should be a quality lefty bullpen piece in the near future.
CF Charlie Blackmon to the Washington Nationals
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To WAS: CF Charlie Blackmon
With the departure of free-agent Denard Span, the Washington Nationals are without a proven leadoff hitter for the upcoming season.
Former top prospect Michael Taylor is currently slated to take over as the everyday center fielder, and he showed his good mix of power (15 2B, 14 HR) and speed (16 SB) as a rookie.
However, there were also some significant red flags: He's not capable of hitting leadoff, as he had a .282 on-base percentage and a 30.9 percent strikeout rate in 472 at-bats (per FanGraphs).
The team is said to be in the market for a left-handed hitting outfielder, and it has been in contact with the Colorado Rockies about both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, according to Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
The 29-year-old Blackmon followed up a breakout season in 2014 by hitting .287/.347/.450 with 31 doubles, 17 home runs and 58 RBI while also ranking third in the National League with 43 stolen bases.
With three remaining years of team control and two straight All-Star-caliber seasons under his belt, Blackmon could be the answer to filling two of the Nationals' biggest remaining needs.
To COL: RP Drew Storen, SP Austin Voth, RP Jake Johansen
The Colorado Rockies would no doubt be looking for pitching in any deal that sees them ship out one of their outfielders, and this proposed package brings them a trio of quality arms.
The team has added Jason Motte and Chad Qualls to the bullpen this winter, but acquiring Drew Storen would give the Rockies a bona fide bullpen ace.
He converted 29-of-31 save chances with a 1.73 ERA, 1.018 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 prior to the Nationals acquiring Jonathan Papelbon at the trade deadline.
Austin Voth was a fifth-round pick in 2013, and he's continued to move quickly after reaching Single-A in his pro debut. This past season, he went 6-7 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.106 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 157.1 innings in a full season at Double-A.
The 23-year-old is a workhorse with legitimate middle-of-the-rotation upside, and he should be able to help out relatively soon.
Rounding things out is 24-year-old righty Jake Johansen, a former second-round pick with a big arm, who has seen his stuff play up since moving to the bullpen.
He's still raw, especially for his age, but he can reach the high-90s with his fastball and pairs it with a slider that has plus potential as well. He's a project, but one that could pay off in the form of a late-inning arm.
SP Danny Salazar to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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To LAD: SP Danny Salazar
Despite signing veteran Hisashi Iwakuma, the Los Angeles Dodgers are still in need of another impact arm to fill out the rotation as they look to keep pace with the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants, who have both already had a busy offseason.
With the marquee names gone in free agency, the trade market may wind up being their preferred route, and the Cleveland Indians have a number of intriguing arms.
Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are Cleveland's two biggest trade chips. And while both come with five years of team control, the Dodgers may prefer Salazar, who is three years younger, at 25, and may have a higher ceiling.
In a breakout performance in 2015, Salazar went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP and 195 strikeouts in 185 innings of work for a 3.3 WAR.
As we've already seen this offseason with the package surrendered by the Diamondbacks to acquire Shelby Miller, young starting pitching with significant team control carry incredible value.
However, he's exactly the kind of arm the Dodgers need to keep pace in the NL West.
To CLE: SP Grant Holmes, 2B Jose Peraza, 1B/OF Cody Bellinger
If at all possible the Dodgers will try to keep from trading Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Jose De Leon, and they should still be able to put together a good enough package without surrendering that trio.
Right-hander Grant Holmes and second baseman Jose Peraza are widely regarded as the next-best prospects in the system behind those three, and both figure to crack industry top 100 prospect lists once they're released.
Holmes, 19, spent all of last season in Single-A. He went 6-4 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.355 WHIP and 117 strikeouts in 103.1 innings as one of the younger pitchers at that level.
The speedy Peraza was acquired from the Atlanta Braves at the deadline last season, and he's knocking on the door after hitting .293 with 33 steals in Triple-A. The Indians could opt to slide Jason Kipnis over to third base once Peraza is ready to take over at second.
Beyond those two, the Indians will be looking for bats, and Cody Bellinger is one name that could fulfill their need for right-handed power.
The 20-year-old Bellinger posted an .873 OPS with 33 doubles, 30 home runs and 103 RBI for High-A Rancho Cucamonga in his first year of full-season ball.
He would join Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier and Bobby Bradley as high-ceiling bats in the Indians' system, and that trio could be enough to pry Salazar away from Cleveland.
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C Jonathan Lucroy to the Texas Rangers
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To TEX: C Jonathan Lucroy, RP Will Smith
The Texas Rangers went with the low-cost platoon of Robinson Chirinos and Chris Gimenez at catcher this past season, and the position produced a combined .225/.307/.403 line overall.
As a result, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports have both reported that the team is interested in Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, though they have not proven willing to meet the team's steep asking price.
Lucroy was one of the breakout stars of 2014, as he hit .301/.373/.465 with 53 doubles and a 6.7 WAR to finish fourth in NL MVP voting.
His performance came back to earth a bit this past season, and injuries limited him to just 103 games. But he still hit .264/.326/.391 with 20 doubles, seven home runs and 43 RBI in 371 at-bats.
The 29-year-old is owed just $4 million this coming season and has a $5.25 million option for 2017, so his price tag only adds to his value.
With a need for a second left-hander to pair with Jake Diekman in the bullpen, the Rangers could also ask for Will Smith.
The 26-year-old posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.200 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 with 20 holds in 76 appearances last season, and he still has four years of team control remaining.
To MIL: 1B Mitch Moreland, C Robinson Chirinos, CF Lewis Brinson, 3B/SS Josh Morgan
The Rangers were reportedly shopping first baseman Mitch Moreland during the winter meetings, but "haven't been motivated" by any potential deals, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
He would certainly fill a need for the Brewers, though, as they recently traded Adam Lind to Seattle and currently have Jason Rogers penciled in at first base. He's also someone who could then be flipped at the deadline for more young talent.
The 30-year-old Moreland enjoyed the best season of his career last year, posting an .812 OPS with 27 doubles, 23 home runs and 85 RBI.
Despite those numbers, he doesn't have a ton of value as he enters his final year of team control and is essentially a rental player. So it will take more than just him to get the deal done.
Chirinos has three more years of team control, and while he's not on the same level as Lucroy, he would be a viable short-term solution behind the plate for the rebuilding Brewers. He's a solid defender with double-digit home run pop.
That brings us to center field prospect Lewis Brinson, who would be the prize of the deal for the Brewers.
The 21-year-old was a first-round pick in 2012, and he's coming off a fantastic season that saw him climb three levels to reach Triple-A for the first time.
All told, he hit .332/.403/.601 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs, 69 RBI and 18 stolen bases, and he'll no doubt be a top-100 prospect across the board when those lists are released.
Rounding out the deal and assuring the team also gets Will Smith is third baseman Josh Morgan.
A third-round pick out of high school in 2014, Morgan hit .288/.385/.362 with 19 extra-base hits and 59 runs scored in 351 at-bats for Single-A Hickory, and he has some legitimate power potential as he continues to develop.
The Rangers would be giving up a good deal here, but they would be upgrading the biggest weakness in their everyday lineup without surrendering any of their top three prospects, (Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Dillon Tate), to do it.
Cubs Trade IF Javier Baez, Prospects to the Rays for SP Jake Odorizzi
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To TB: IF Javier Baez, SP Duane Underwood, 2B/3B Jeimer Candelario
Last season Evan Longoria led the Tampa Bay Rays in doubles (35), home runs (21) and RBI (73), despite having the least productive full season of his career.
There's a clear need for more run production and power in that lineup, and while Javier Baez is still a work in progress, his elite bat speed gives him the potential to provide plenty of both in the not-too-distant future.
However, it will take more than just Baez for the Cubs to land a controllable starter with front-line upside, as we've seen already this offseason.
Duane Underwood was signed to a $1.05 million bonus as a second-round pick in 2012, after flashing a high-90s fastball in high school with a projectable frame.
He's come along slowly, but he went 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.009 WHIP while reaching High-A at the age of 20 this past season, and he has shot up in the prospect rankings as a result.
The third piece is an equally impressive one in 22-year-old Jeimer Candelario, who hit .277/.339/.431 with 35 doubles, 10 home runs and 64 RBI between High-A and Double-A last season. He's always displayed a plus approach at the plate while ranking as one of the younger players at his respective level.
He followed up that strong regular-season performance by hitting .329/.371/.610 with eight doubles and five home runs in 82 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.
This package would give the Rays a potential future All-Star in Baez and a pair of likely top 100 prospects whose stock is trending up, making it a tough package to pass on.
To CHC: SP Jake Odorizzi
One of the hottest rumors of the winter meetings was a potential swap between the Cubs and Rays involving infielder Baez and a pitcher of some sort, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
It stands to reason that every starter not named Chris Archer could be acquired for the right price, and Jake Odorizzi would make sense as the Cubs' top target.
The 25-year-old went 9-9 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.152 WHIP and 150 strikeouts in 169.1 innings last season in his second full major league season.
He still has four remaining years of team control, and after taking a big step forward from his first to second seasons, he could be in for a 2016 breakout.
The Cubs could really regret giving up Baez if he comes even remotely close to reaching his ceiling, and the two prospects have a chance to turn into impact players as well.
The window is open for the "North Siders" to win right now, though, and this is a move that would make them better in 2016.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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