Why Rafael Nadal Will Face the Most Scrutiny of Any Tennis Player in 2016
No tennis player will be under more pressure to perform well in 2016 than Rafael Nadal.
And because of the high expectations he's garnered for himself throughout his career, there's only one way Nadal can silence the skeptics: winning a Grand Slam title.
Achieving that feat will require the Spaniard, 29, to rekindle the old fire that once imbued him. Since defeating Novak Djokovic for the 2014 French Open title, Nadal is without a major title—nor has he even reached a Grand Slam final. During this 18-month drought, he's also failed to win a single Masters Series event.
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His only titles in 2015 came at smaller tournaments (Buenos Aires, Stuttgart and Hamburg), and he went a meager 7-11 against Top 10 foes. Those marks are a far cry from Nadal's glory days, when he struck fear every time he stepped onto the court and thrived under the spotlight.
Nadal hasn't been that same player in a while. Injuries to his back and wrist, as well as appendicitis, kept him shelved for almost all of the latter half of the 2014 season. He went under the knife to address his back and appendix issues, so most anticipated he'd need some time at the start of this year to shake off the rust and get back to full strength.
But he never found his rhythm.
After a less-than-stellar turn during the winter hard-court season, Nadal returned to his beloved clay. He was expected to pick up where he left off and build momentum heading into Roland Garros. Instead, Nadal suffered his worst stretch ever on the dirt, losing six matches and coming up empty at the prestigious European events.
Though each defeat seemed more head-scratching than the last, the one that truly opened eyes (and not in a good way) was his loss to Djokovic in the French Open quarterfinals. Nadal's five-year reign in Paris ended in humiliation as Djokovic coasted to a straight-sets win and stripped him of the crown.
That result stung, but things didn't get much better over the summer. Suffering yet another early-round loss at Wimbledon (this time to qualifier Dustin Brown), Nadal also went home early in Cincinnati and at the U.S. Open. At one point, he dropped to No 10. in the world—his lowest ranking in over a decade.
If his comments about struggling with confidence weren't alarming enough, his performances were even more concerning. His once-mighty forehand lacked its bite as he shrunk in many of the big moments. Opponents were no longer intimidated by him, and his aura of invincibility faded.
All along, Nadal expressed his belief that a turnaround would be near. He just kept grinding on the practice courts and hoping for the best, even as the results he wanted didn't arrive.
Not until two months ago did things start to change for Nadal. In October, he made the finals in Beijing and the semifinals in Shanghai, losing to Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, respectively. He then reached another championship match in Basel, falling to Roger Federer in three tight sets.
He ended his season by making the quarterfinals in Paris and the semifinals at the World Tour Finals, the latter of which ended in another loss to Djokovic. For Nadal, those results count as marked progress.
Picking up five wins against Top 10 opponents at those five events (including three in London), Nadal finally showed signs of a resurgence. Sure, he still came up empty in terms of titles and watched as a certain Serbian continued to hold his number. But he appeared more confident with his game, and his forehand started to click again.
Will that late-season surge prove a good omen for him in 2016?
It's not an understatement to call this coming year a turning point for Nadal. He's clearly at a crossroads in his career, and how he responds will indicate whether 2015 was just an aberration or the beginning of the end.
Asked by AFP (h/t Tennis.com) whether he could return to the top despite his underwhelming year, Nadal remained realistic:
"I think it's obvious that I did not have the best season possible, but I am No. 5 in the world so actually it's not a disaster. I don't know if I'm going to win it back, I'm working hard to create opportunities to compete for the best tournaments and I'm working so hard to try to make that happen.
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With this 30th birthday fast approaching, the reality is that time is running out for Nadal. He may only have a handful of seasons left before he retires. Therefore this next one takes on added importance for him.
He's lost a ton of ground lately to his top rival, Djokovic. Who hasn't, for that matter. Djokovic is 8-1 against Nadal since the 2013 U.S. Open, and he's taken nine consecutive sets from the Spaniard. By vanquishing him at this year's French Open, Djokovic cleared an important hurdle in their rivalry.
Both men will once again have their focus set to winning Roland Garros. For Djokovic, he's trying to complete a career Grand Slam there. Nadal is just hoping to recapture his old magic on the terre battue. So, that tournament could very well have massive historical implications.
Nadal desperately craves a 15th major title. Not too long ago, he appeared well on his way to surpassing Roger Federer's record. But his recent stumbles make it unclear if he can get there, let alone win one more. And that's why 2016 is so crucial for him: He needs to reassert himself at Grand Slams.
Until he scores a signature win or two at those events, doubts will hover over Nadal.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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