The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Remaining MLB Pitching, Hitting Markets
The last pitch of the 2015 Major League Baseball season was thrown a month-and-a-half ago. It's been all offseason since then and a busy one at that.
But there's still plenty left to do.
This hot-stove season features one of the deepest classes of free agents in history and a trade market that's been plenty active. That's why there's a seemingly endless supply of available players, which naturally makes the process of sorting them all out rather difficult.
However, we have a way to do so that will satisfy baseball fans and Clint Eastwood alike. We're going to check in on the good, the bad and the ugly of the remaining hitting and pitching markets, using the following guidelines:
- The Good: These are free agents and trade options who are obviously impact players.
- The Bad: These players aren't so much "bad" as they are good but flawed.
- The Ugly: These options are either reclamation projects worthy of a roll of the dice or part-timers who might complete a roster.
Now that we're all clear on the ground rules, we can get started with the good left on the hitting market...
The Good: Hitting Market
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Yoenis Cespedes, LF/CF, Free Agent: Cespedes is coming off one heck of a walk year. He OPS'd .870 with 35 home runs and played outstanding left field defense in 2015. That's probably the best he's capable of, as his 2013 and 2014 seasons are a reminder that he's prone to inconsistency on both sides of the ball. But even with that noted, Cespedes' natural athleticism and lack of ties to draft-pick compensation make him an appealing option.
Chris Davis, 1B, Free Agent: Dave Cameron of FanGraphs sees Davis as the biggest potential land mine of the winter's free agents. There's something to that, as there isn't much to see when you look past Davis' power. That power is hard to look past, though. H has hit 15 more home runs than any other player over the last three seasons and also holds a considerable edge in isolated power.
Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the Reds were shopping Frazier "heavily" at last week's winter meetings. They should be able to move him if they keep that up. Frazier is a free swinger with iffy numbers away from Great American Ball Park, but it's hard not to like a third baseman with an .801 OPS, 64 homers and 33 steals over the last two seasons. Much less one who also plays a good third base and has two years of club control left.
Carlos Gomez, CF, Houston Astros: Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported that Gomez was one of several Astros outfielders receiving interest at the winter meetings. Because he's part of an outfield surplus and has only one year to go until free agency, he could be moved. And though Gomez had a down year in 2015, teams must be enthused about a slick-fielding center fielder who OPS'd .838 with 47 homers and 74 steals across 2013 and 2014.
Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies: Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported that Gonzalez is one of several outfielders the Rockies are willing to move. He comes with red flags, most notably a big contract, a history of injuries and mediocre numbers away from Coors Field. Nonetheless, it's hard not to be intrigued by a former batting champion who's coming off an .864 OPS and 40 home runs in 2015.
Alex Gordon, LF, Free Agent: Wins above replacement rates Gordon as the game's best left fielder since 2011. It's hard to argue, as Gordon has racked up an .809 OPS while averaging double-digit homers and steals and playing fantastic defense over the last five seasons. The big catch is that he'll soon be 32 years old, but it's still easy to like the idea of bringing aboard a player who's been quietly elite for half a decade now.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported that the Brewers have been listening on Lucroy, who stands as a beacon of hope in an otherwise weak catching market. Even after a down season in 2015, Lucroy is still a .291 hitter with an .808 OPS in 2012, and he is also known as a master of framing pitches. And as Rosenthal noted, Lucroy's contract maxes out at less than $10 million over the next two seasons.
George Springer, RF, Houston Astros: Springer is another Astros outfielder that Drellich noted was drawing interest at the winter meetings. Though he's a strikeout-prone hitter who's had issues staying on the field, there's no ignoring his talent. Springer has OPS'd .817 with 36 homers and 21 steals in 180 major league games and has shown he can also play a good right field. Just as important, he's 26 and under club control through 2020.
Justin Upton, LF, Free Agent: Upton's corner of the rumor mill has been awfully quiet this winter, but it will get noisy eventually. He isn't great at anything, but he's a 28-year-old with an .825 career OPS who's averaged 25 homers and 16 steals per year over the last seven seasons. Though inconsistency has tended to be a big problem for Upton, that's not going to stop teams from throwing money at him.
The Good: Pitching Market
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Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians: According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Cleveland is asking for "a ton" in exchange for Carrasco. That sounds about right. He's done nothing but dominate since stepping into Cleveland's rotation at the end of 2014, posting a 2.99 ERA in 40 starts. That's what good command of a hard fastball and a wipeout slider and changeup can do. Even better, the 28-year-old has a contract that can run through 2020 at less than $40 million total.
Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Free Agent: Chen was a mediocre innings-eater in the first two years of his career, posting a 4.04 ERA across 329.2 innings in 2012 and 2013. But he's evolved into an elite strike-thrower over the last two seasons and has benefited to the tune of a 3.54 ERA across 377.0 innings. He's no ace, but the 30-year-old left-hander looks like a dependable No. 3.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Free Agent: There is one area where Gallardo looks like a trap. With a strikeout rate that's going nowhere but down, it's clear he's not as overpowering as he once was. But it's also not entirely by accident that he's posted a 3.46 ERA across 376.2 innings in the last two seasons despite that. Gallardo has gotten better at mixing and locating his pitches, making him a tough matchup even despite his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. He should have a few more years as a solid No. 3 in him.
Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins: Morosi heard from a source last week that the Marlins are still discussing Fernandez with "five or six teams." It does seem unlikely at this point that he will be traded. Still, never say never. Even with Fernandez's Tommy John surgery in the picture, there's no denying the appeal of a 23-year-old who's used a blistering fastball and unhittable curveball to carve out a 2.40 ERA in three seasons.
Scott Kazmir, SP, Free Agent: Speaking of guys who are no longer overpowering, that notion applies to Kazmir as well. But he hasn't needed his old power stuff to post a 3.33 ERA over the last two seasons, as he's evolved into a pitcher who beats hitters with different looks and locations. That makes it somewhat easier to overlook the fact that he'll soon be 32 years old. It also helps that he's not tied to draft-pick compensation.
Mike Leake, SP, Free Agent: Here's yet another guy who's not overpowering, but that's hardly a red flag where Leake is concerned. He's a 28-year-old who's authored a 3.59 ERA across nearly 600 innings over the last three seasons, getting by on strong command and an arsenal of pitches that features nothing straight. He's also not tied to draft-pick compensation, which makes him an appealing target for teams in need of a good No. 3.
Mark Melancon, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates: In an interview on MLB Network Radio, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington warned that the Pitates will "have to get something that really makes sense to even consider moving" Melancon. That's understandable, as he's established himself as a true relief ace with a 1.85 ERA in 222 appearances over the last three seasons. And though it is concerning that his strikeout rate took a dive in 2015, his strong command of his cutter/curveball combination continued to make him tough to square up. With his free agency due up in a year, he's a good target for teams that are looking for a rental closer.
Andrew Miller, RP, New York Yankees: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the Yankees want to swap Miller for a starting pitcher. That's a high price for a mere reliever, much less one who's already owed $27 million over the next three seasons. But this reliever is a good one, as Miller has posted a 2.03 ERA and has used his sick fastball/slider combination to strike out nearly 15 batters per nine innings over the last two seasons. Teams in need of a closer that also have starters to spare should be interested.
Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres: Rosenthal reported that Ross is one of several Padres starters who are drawing interest. He's certainly the most attractive of the bunch. Ross owns a 3.03 ERA in 391.2 innings over the last two seasons, in which he's downplayed his wildness with lots of strikeouts and lots of ground balls. He's also 28 and has two years of club control left. He's at worst a good No. 2 starter.
The Bad: Hitting Market
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Javier Baez, INF, Chicago Cubs: Rosenthal wrote in November that the Cubs would "at least explore" the trade interest they were getting in Baez. With Starlin Castro gone, that may no longer be the case. But the interest is presumably still there, as Baez is a 23-year-old who was recently an elite prospect based on his incredible power. That power is still appealing, but the big question is whether he can stop swinging and missing so much.
Charlie Blackmon, CF, Colorado Rockies: Blackmon is another outfielder that the Rockies are willing to move, and he does look appealing to some extent. He's a 29-year-old who's controlled through 2018, and the last two seasons have seen him post a .786 OPS with 36 homers and 71 steals. The catch is that he's been a downright poor hitter away from Coors Field, so there is a question of how much value he has outside of Colorado.
Ian Desmond, SS, Free Agent: Desmond has been one of the top offensive weapons at shortstop over the last four seasons, in which he's posted a .759 OPS while averaging roughly 20 homers and 20 stolen bases per season. And though he had a rough year in 2015, he finished it on a strong note with a good second half. Still, his ties to draft-pick compensation and high asking price make him an expensive-looking target. For a guy who's had issues with consistency on both sides of the ball, Desmond is quite the risk.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Colorado Rockies: Dickerson is still another outfielder the Rockies are willing to move. With him, the appeal is all in his bat. Over the last two seasons, he's hit .309 with a .910 OPS and 34 homers in 196 games. However, he also comes with poor numbers away from Coors Field. Throw in a platoon split on top of that, and he's easily the biggest roll of the dice among the outfielders Colorado has to offer.
Dexter Fowler, CF, Free Agent: Fowler sounds like a great player on paper, as he's a switch-hitting center fielder with a strong batting eye and a solid mix of power and speed. In all, he's a .267 career hitter with a .781 OPS who's averaged double-digit homers and steals over the last four seasons. But Fowler is somehow less than the sum of his parts. His patient approach also leads to strikeouts, and he barely does enough on offense to make up for his lousy defense. All this plus his ties to draft-pick compensation make him another risky player.
Brett Gardner, LF, New York Yankees: Sherman's report also mentioned that the Yankees are willing to move Gardner for a pitcher. He's an appealing option for teams because he's one of the peskiest top-of-the-lineup hitters in the game and because he's developed some power to go with his speed in the last two seasons. The 32-year-old's speed does seem to be declining, however, and his power surge has taken place mainly at Yankee Stadium. And with nearly $40 million owed to him over the next three years, he's not cheap.
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Free Agent: It's uncanny how consistently Kendrick has been a roughly .290 hitter throughout his career, which speaks to his pure hitting talent. However, he's only ever had modest power. And after the rough year Kendrick had on defense in 2015, you do wonder if he's starting to feel his 32 years in his legs. His twilight may be upon him, which makes signing him to a long-term contract and giving up a draft pick to do it sound risky.
Hyun-Soo Kim, OF, Free Agent (Korea): Kim has had a successful career in the Korean Baseball Organization, batting .318 with an .895 OPS in 10 seasons. With his strong eye and contact habit, C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports may be right about Kim being a potential bargain buy. The thing to remember, though, is that the offensive environment in KBO is a lot friendlier to hitters than the offensive environment in MLB. Kim is an appealing player, but he should be considered less than a sure thing.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Free Agent: Murphy was last seen tearing the cover off the ball in the postseason, and he has indeed been a good hitter throughout his career with a .288 average and .755 OPS in seven seasons. He has an elite contact skill and flashed some power potential in 2015. Murphy is nearly 31 years old, though, and his defense at second base is bad enough to wonder if he should be used as a utility infielder.
Denard Span, CF, Free Agent: Span has been pretty good when he's been on the field in the last two seasons, hitting .301 with a .778 OPS. He's also an ideal top-of-the-order hitter, featuring a strong eye and one of the best contact skills in MLB. But Span is a borderline reclamation project these days. He's nearly 32 and coming off a year in which surgeries limited him to just 61 games. His talent is fine, but his durability is a question mark.
Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs: Soler is another player that Rosenthal said the Cubs are open to trading, and that may be more true now in the wake of the Jason Heyward signing. His appeal is as a 23-year-old who's signed through 2020 and packs a bat with legit power potential. He failed to live up to his promise in 2015, though, OPS'ing just .723 with 10 homers in 101 games. He also played poor defense in right field. He's likely a smaller project than Baez, but Soler is a project all the same.
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The Bad: Pitching Market
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Antonio Bastardo, RP, Free Agent: Bastardo has been a solid reliever for five years now, posting a 3.28 ERA across 310 appearances. He doesn't have much trouble missing bats, posting 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings in this span. But be warned that he's best used as a left-handed specialist and also that walks come with the territory.
Mark Buehrle, SP, Free Agent: Whether Buehrle even wants to play anymore is the big question. If he does, teams know they're at least looking at a solid innings-eater. Buehrle has pitched at least 190 innings every year since 2001, racking up a solid 3.81 ERA along the way. The 36-year-old lefty is only getting worse at missing bats, however. That's reflective of how diminished his stuff is these days, so a "solid innings eater" is really the best he can be at this point.
Tyler Clippard, RP, Free Agent: Clippard has been one of the more reliable relievers in MLB over the last five seasons, posting a 2.58 ERA in 362 appearances. His fastball/changeup combination has allowed him to strike out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. The 30-year-old's fastball is losing some juice, however, which contributed to his strikeout rate dipping to about league average in 2015. Clippard's best days may be finished.
Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres: Cashner is another Padres pitcher who's supposedly available, and there's no denying the appeal. He is a big drink of water who sits in the mid-90s with his fastball. He does only have one year of club control left, though, and his 3.43 ERA over the last three seasons may oversell how good he's been. That plus the fact that Cashner comes with some durability red flags makes him a risky target.
Kenta Maeda, SP, Free Agent (Japan): Maeda looks like he may be the next great ace to come out of Japan. In eight seasons with the Hiroshima Carp, the 27-year-old right-hander has posted a 2.39 ERA in over 1,500 innings. But rather than an ace, one international scouting director told Ben Badler of Baseball America in 2013 that he sees Maeda as a No. 4 starter. With subpar velocity and no wipeout secondaries working for him, that may well be the truth about Maeda.
Seung-Hwan Oh, RP, Free Agent (Korea): If nothing else, Oh is interesting because he has an awesome nickname: "The Final Boss." When one has a 1.81 ERA and 357 saves in 11 seasons in Korea and Japan, one deserves a nickname like that. Per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, Oh boasts a fastball that can touch 97 mph and an array of sliders. Oh is a little older at 33, however, and he's coming off a year in which he whiffed a modest 8.6 batters per nine innings in Japan. He may be past his prime.
James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres: Shields is still another starter that the Padres are supposedly willing to move. His first season in San Diego didn't go well, as he led the majors in home runs allowed and posted a 3.91 ERA across 202.1 innings. With his 34th birthday on deck, one wonders if he's finally past his prime. The good news, such as it is, is that Shields' career-best strikeout rate in 2015 is a good reason to say "not so fast."
Drew Storen, RP, Washington Nationals: Bill Ladson of MLB.com reported that the Nationals wanted to shop Storen at the winter meetings. Nothing happened, but there should still be interest in Storen. He posted a 1.12 ERA in 2014 and had a 1.52 ERA as late as August 6 in 2015. It also looks good that Storen's strikeout rate jumped in 2015. It's a bummer he only has one year to go until free agency and that his performance has been really up-and-down throughout his career.
Carlos Villanueva, RP, Free Agent: Villanueva has quietly been on a roll for a year-and-a-half. He finished 2014 with a 1.69 ERA in 17 second-half appearances and posted a 2.95 ERA in 35 appearances in 2015. The catch is that he's neither a starter nor a late-inning reliever. He's only an effective long man, which may be a dying breed at a time when there are plenty of ace starters and ace relievers to go around.
The Ugly: Hitting Market
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Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Free Agent: Alvarez can definitely hit for power. In the last four seasons, he's hit 111 homers and slugged .456. He just can't do much else, as he got himself non-tendered by the Pirates for being a poor OBP merchant and for failing defensively at third base and first base. He looks like a DH.
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds: According to Rosecrans, Bruce is among the players the Reds are willing to listen on. He showed by hitting 26 homers in 2015 that he still has good power to offer. He's also still only 28. But a 2014 knee injury has seemingly broken Bruce, as he's posted just a .288 OBP and hasn't been the same defensively over the last two years. With $13.5 million still owed to him, Bruce is a risk.
Marlon Byrd, OF, Free Agent: Byrd has turned himself into a good power source, topping 20 homers in each of the last three seasons. But this has involved turning himself into an aggressive swinger, and that finally bit him in the form of a .290 OBP in 2015. Plus, Byrd is 38 years old.
Chris Carter, 1B/DH, Free Agent: Like Alvarez, Carter definitely has power to offer. Over the last three years, he's hit 90 homers and slugged .459. But also like Alvarez, Carter can't do much else.
David Freese, 3B, Free Agent: In hitting .258 with a .723 OPS over the last two seasons, Freese has shown that he still has some life left in his bat. On a weak third base market, he's the best thing out there for teams that don't want to sell the farm for a guy like Frazier. Freese doesn't have a solid glove to match his solid bat, however. And at 32, his tendency to get injured likely isn't going to change.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Free Agent: Morneau has been good when he's been healthy over the last two seasons, hitting .316 with an .850 OPS in 184 games. But keep in mind that the Coors Field caveat applies here. Also keep in mind that Morneau isn't a good bet to put his injury problems behind him. He's 34 and has played in over 140 games just once in the last seven seasons.
Mike Napoli, 1B, Free Agent: It looks like Napoli is coming off a bad season, as he hit just .224 with a .734 OPS in 2015. But he did finish on a strong note with a .903 OPS in the second half, and it is possible to wonder if he simply needed time to get over a nasty offseason surgery. Napoli is 34, though, and his career splits say the best job for him is as a platoon hitter against lefties. There isn't a lot of work for guys like that.
Gerardo Parra, OF, Free Agent: Parra is coming off a year in which he hit .291 with a .780 OPS while playing all over the outfield. As such, he looks like a good complementary outfield piece. He did fall apart in the latter half of the year, though. Factor in a platoon split and apparently fading defense, and the idea of giving him regular action begins to sound a little risky.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: Phillips is another player the Reds are willing to move. It looks good that he's coming off a bounce-back year in 2015, as he hit a solid .294 with a .723 OPS, 12 homers and 23 steals while continuing to get it done defensively. It's hard to expect another season like that heading into his age-35 season, though, and let's remember that Phillips is still owed $27 million over the next two seasons.
The Ugly: Pitching Market
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Henderson Alvarez, SP, Free Agent: It was only a year ago that Alvarez made the National League All-Star team and finished with a 2.65 ERA over 187 innings in 2014. And though he's not overpowering, he's a strong ground-ball pitcher. He's also still only 25 years old. This tells us either that the Miami Marlins non-tendered Alvarez because they were going to be forced to pay him in arbitration, or they're worried about his recovery from shoulder woes that limited him to only four starts in 2015. It could well be the latter.
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds: Chapman is one of the top relief aces in baseball, posting a 1.90 ERA and striking out 16.1 batters per nine innings over the last four seasons. That's what you can do when you can summon 100 mph fastballs like Storm can summon bad weather. The big catch, of course, is that Chapman's status for 2016 is up in the air as MLB investigates the alleged domestic violence incident reported by Yahoo Sports last week.
Bartolo Colon, SP, Free Agent: Any team that is looking for some cheap and easy innings should contact Colon. In logging at least 190 innings in each of the last three seasons, he's shown he can still eat innings despite being a couple of years past 40. They just may not be very good years, as Colon has managed a mere 4.13 ERA over the last two seasons. Hitters seem to have caught on to his pitching style, which features too many hit-me fastballs.
Doug Fister, SP, Free Agent: Fister was one of the top starters in baseball between 2011 and 2014, posting a 3.11 ERA across over 750 innings. But he struggled to the tune of a 4.19 ERA in 2015 and was also limited by a bad elbow to only 25 appearances. That plus his declining velocity makes him out to be a reclamation project heading into his age-32 season.
Greg Holland, RP, Free Agent: Holland was unhittable as the Kansas City Royals' closer in 2013 and 2014, posting a 1.32 ERA and striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings in 121 appearances. But he struggled with a 3.83 ERA in 2015 and eventually had his season end early thanks to Tommy John surgery. He may be worth a flier in free agency, but only on a two-year contract that will be betting heavily on a return to form in 2017.
Mat Latos, SP, Free Agent: It wasn't that long ago that Latos was one of the league's more underrated starters, as he posted a 3.27 ERA across nearly 800 innings between 2010 and 2013. But injuries hit him hard in 2014, and he failed to recover in 2015. In 25 outings, he managed only a 4.95 ERA. The good news is that Latos is still only 28, but there's also no denying that he's a reclamation project at this point.
Cliff Lee, SP, Free Agent: Like Latos and Fister, it wasn't long ago that Lee was one of the top pitchers in the league. Between 2008 and 2013, he dominated with a 2.89 ERA across more than 1,300 innings. But he started to break down in 2014 and missed all of 2015. He's worth a flier as a reclamation project heading into his age-37 season, but it would obviously have to be a low-risk deal built mainly on incentives.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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