College Bowl Picks 2015-16: Recent Odds and Predictions Against the Spread
December is a busy month for many reasons, not least of which is because college football's annual slate of bowl games kicks off.
There are a total of 41 bowl games, starting on Dec. 19 with six games, and they run until Jan. 11 with the College Football Playoff National Championship.
With so much action jam-packed into a such a small window, it can be easy to lose track of what is going to happen. Fortunately, there is a handy guide complete with odds and predictions for the games, along with key storylines to watch this bowl season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Dec. 19 | AFR Celebration Bowl | Alcorn State vs.North Carolina A&T | N/A | Alcorn State, 24-21 |
| Dec. 19 | Gildan New Mexico Bowl | Arizona vs. New Mexico | Arizona (-10) | Arizona, 31-20 |
| Dec. 19 | Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl | BYU vs. Utah | Utah (-3) | BYU, 27-23 |
| Dec. 19 | Raycom Media Camellia Bowl | Ohio vs. Appalachian State | App. State (-9) | App State, 34-14 |
| Dec. 19 | AutoNation Cure Bowl | San Jose State vs. Georgia State | SJSU (-3.5) | San Jose State, 23-21 |
| Dec. 19 | R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech | La Tech (-2) | Arkansas State, 38-35 |
| Dec. 21 | Miami Beach Bowl | Western Kentucky vs. USF | WKU (-3) | USF, 28-24 |
| Dec. 22 | Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Akron vs. Utah State | USU (-7) | Akron, 26-17 |
| Dec. 22 | Marmot Boca Raton Bowl | Toledo vs. Temple | Temple (-1.5) | Temple, 23-16 |
| Dec. 23 | San Diego County CU Poinsettia Bowl | Boise State vs. Northern Illinois | BSU (-8) | Boise State, 41-31 |
| Dec. 23 | GoDaddy Bowl | Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green | Bowling Green (-7.5) | Bowling Green, 24-20 |
| Dec. 24 | Popeyes Bahamas Bowl | Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan | WMU (-3) | Middle Tennessee, 30-20 |
| Dec. 24 | Hawaii Bowl | San Diego vs. Cincinnati | Cincinnati (-1.5) | Cincinnati, 20-17 |
| Dec. 26 | St. Petersburg Bowl | Connecticut vs. Marshall | Marshall (-4.5) | UConn, 30-23 |
| Dec. 26 | Hyundai Sun Bowl | Miami vs. Washington State | WSU (-3) | Washington State, 45-24 |
| Dec. 26 | Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl | Washington vs. Southern Mississippi | UW (-8.5) | Washington, 38-20 |
| Dec. 26 | New Era Pinstripe Bowl | Indiana vs. Duke | IU (-2) | Indiana, 48-40 |
| Dec. 26 | Camping World Independence Bowl | Tulsa vs. Virginia Tech | Va Tech (-13.5) | Virginia Tech, 27-23 |
| Dec. 26 | Foster Farms Bowl | UCLA vs. Nebraska | UCLA (-7) | UCLA, 34-13 |
| Dec. 28 | Military Bowl | Pittsburgh vs. Navy | Navy (-3.5) | Navy, 31-27 |
| Dec. 28 | Quick Lane Bowl | Central Michigan vs. Minnesota | Minnesota (-5) | Minnesota, 26-20 |
| Dec. 29 | Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl | California vs.Air Force | Cal (-7) | Cal, 31-21 |
| Dec. 29 | Russell Athletic Bowl | North Carolina vs. Baylor | Baylor (-3) | North Carolina, 41-38 |
| Dec. 29 | Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl | Nevada vs. Colorado State | CSU (-3) | Nevada, 34-31 |
| Dec. 29 | Advocare V100 Texas Bowl | LSU vs. Texas Tech | LSU (-7.5) | LSU, 34-27 |
| Dec. 30 | Birmingham Bowl | Auburn vs. Memphis | Auburn (-2.5) | Auburn, 27-24 |
| Dec. 30 | Belk Bowl | North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State (-5.5) | Mississippi State, 37-26 |
| Dec. 30 | Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl | Texas A&M vs. Louisville | Texas A&M (-1) | Louisville, 28-24 |
| Dec. 30 | Holiday Bowl | USC vs. Wisconsin | USC (-3) | USC, 27-17 |
| Dec. 31 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | Houston vs. Florida State | FSU (-7.5) | FSU, 30-20 |
| Dec. 31 | Capital One Orange Bowl | Oklahoma vs. Clemson | OU (-4) | Oklahoma, 34-30 |
| Dec. 31 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl | Michigan State vs. Alabama | Alabama (-9.5) | Michigan State, 24-21 |
| Jan. 1 | Outback Bowl | Northwestern vs. Tennessee | Tennessee (-8.5) | Tennessee, 24-13 |
| Jan. 1 | Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl | Michigan vs. Florida | UM (-4.5) | Michigan, 23-6 |
| Jan. 1 | BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl | Notre Dame vs. Ohio State | OSU (-7) | Ohio State, 27-23 |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game | Stanford vs. Iowa | Stanford (-7) | Stanford, 16-13 |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl | Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi | Oklahoma State (-7.5) | Oklahoma State, 34-24 |
| Jan. 2 | TaxSlayer Bowl | Penn State vs. Georgia | Georgia (-7) | Georgia, 24-20 |
| Jan. 2 | AutoZone Liberty Bowl | Kansas State vs. Arkansas | Arkansas (-11) | Arkansas, 23-21 |
| Jan. 2 | Valero Alamo Bowl | Oregon vs. TCU | Pick Em | Oregon, 33-23 |
| Jan. 2 | Motel 6 Cactus Bowl | West Virginia vs. Arizona State | Pick Em | West Virginia, 27-23 |
| Jan. 11 | College Football Playoff National Championship | Predicted Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Michigan State | N/A | Predicted Winner: Oklahoma, 31-27 |
Best NFL Prospect Matchup
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
If not for one bounce or two, Notre Dame and Ohio State could be playing in one of the two College Football Playoff semifinal matchups. Instead, these two historic programs will do battle in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve.
The matchup to watch will be Fighting Irish star linebacker Jaylon Smith against Buckeyes stud running back Ezekiel Elliott.
Both players could be high draft picks when the NFL comes calling next May, if they declare, but they spoke through Twitter after the matchup was announced:
Smith is one of the most impressive defensive players in the nation, with two NFL executives telling NFL.com scout Daniel Jeremiah that the Notre Dame star is the best player they have studied this year.
"The Notre Dame linebacker. He's smart, tough and he'll be an immediate plug-and-play (weak-side) linebacker. He can play on all three downs," one executive told Jeremiah.
Elliott is no slouch himself with 1,672 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns for the Buckeyes. It's not a coincidence that his lowest single-game yardage total coincided with Ohio State's lone loss in the regular season against Michigan State.
After calling out Ohio State coaches for his lack of touches against the Spartans, Elliott was rewarded with a season-high 30 carries in the regular-season finale against Michigan and had 214 yards with two touchdowns in a 42-13 win.
Individual matchups are what define all the college bowl games, especially the ones that don't have national title implications. It's hard to find a better one that Smith vs. Elliott in the Fiesta Bowl.
Marquee Mismatch
Michigan vs. Florida
There was a time when a showdown between Michigan and Florida would be must-see television. The problem with their clash in the Citrus Bowl is the Gators are a mess offensively right now.
Treon Harris is trying his best as Florida's quarterback, but the drop in production since Will Grier was suspended in October has been precipitous. The Gators were averaging 32 points per game before Grier was forced to sit out and have been averaging less than 18 with Harris under center.
Injuries have plagued Florida's offensive line late in the season, as starting left tackle David Sharpe and starting left guard Martez Ivey were hobbled by foot and knee injuries, respectively, so it's hard to put all the blame on Harris.
Unfortunately, Harris hasn't helped the cause by completing just 51.9 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Gators defense is terrific, but there is only so much it can do with an offense that has been responsible for just eight of the team's 17 points in the last two games. The rest of the scoring came via safety against Florida State and an Antonio Callaway punt-return score against Alabama.
On the other side of the field will be a Michigan defense looking to rebound from its worst game of the season against Ohio State. The Wolverines allowed a season-high 42 points thanks in large part to giving up 369 rushing yards.
That was actually just the tip of the iceberg for the Wolverines, who struggled after a stellar start, with Nick Baumgardner of MLive.com providing the statistical evidence:
"After storming out of the gates defensively this season -- including a stretch of three straight shutouts -- Michigan's defense slipped down the stretch.
After allowing just 181.3 yards and 6.3 points per game over the first six games of the year, Michigan allowed 381.3 yards and 28 points per game over the final six.
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What changed for Michigan in the second half of the season? At the risk of oversimplification, competition. There were good teams on the schedule, but Utah, Oregon State, UNLV, BYU, Maryland and Northwestern are not exactly offensive juggernauts.
On the other hand, teams like Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State can put points on the board in a hurry.
Injuries did hurt Michigan, as well, with nose tackle Ryan Glasgow missing the last three games and linebacker Mario Ojemudia out since getting injured during the Maryland game in October.
The perfect opportunity for the Wolverines to find their defensive mojo and end this terrific first year under head coach Jim Harbaugh on a high note is against Florida's beaten-down offense.
There may not be a lot of points scored in this game on either side because of how strong the defenses are, but Michigan is more coherent offensively to pull away in the second half.
Oklahoma Will Win the CFP
The College Football Playoff selection committee has a wicked sense of humor. Oklahoma and Clemson play wide-open, air-it-out styles that lead to a lot of points in a short amount of time. Michigan State and Alabama, while capable of scoring quickly, want to play hard and physical to wear their opponent down.
Instead of trying to make two sandwiches with peanut butter and jelly, the committee has opted to make one sandwich with two sides of jelly and another sandwich with two sides of peanut butter.
Oklahoma had to convince a lot of people it belonged among the nation's elite following a 24-17 loss to Texas in October. All the Sooners have done since that defeat is go 7-0 and scored more than 40 points six times during that stretch.
No team in the playoff has been tested more than Oklahoma. The Sooners rank first in ESPN's Football Power Index, with their semifinal opponent Clemson at six.
An even deeper dive into the numbers, per Jay Boice of FiveThirtyEight.com, gives Oklahoma the best chance to win the national championship.
"Oklahoma comes into the playoff as the favorite with a 41 percent chance of winning the title despite being the fourth seed. That’s because the Sooners have the highest FPI rating (the metric we use to calculate win probabilities for the playoff games) in FBS football. They’re matched up against Clemson (the third-highest rated team of the four playoff teams, according to FPI), and have a 66 percent chance of beating them and advancing to the final.
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Clemson has been tested this season, notably in a 24-22 win against Notre Dame, but the ACC schedule did not provide many major obstacles. Florida State is in the Top 10, but its only games against ranked teams were a loss to the Tigers and win over a Florida team that can't move the ball.
The last two games Clemson played, against South Carolina and North Carolina, were indicative of a team that's vulnerable against the right opponent. The Tigers allowed 69 points and 784 yards in those games.
Oklahoma tested itself with games against Tennessee and arguably the most difficult three-game stretch any team has faced this season versus Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State.
Baylor and TCU were without their starting quarterbacks in those games, which does count for something, but if there is a penalty against the Sooners there, what do we say for their 35-point win at Oklahoma State?
Once the Sooners get past Clemson, regardless of whether it is Michigan State or Alabama on the other side (MSU is my predicted opponent), ESPN Stats & Info noted they would be favored on a neutral field:
The Big 12 has been knocked around in recent years for either being not very good or, in the case of 2014, being so top-heavy with Baylor and TCU that no one else really mattered. The selection committee overlooked the conference last year in favor of other deserving teams.
This year, Oklahoma left no doubt it was one of the four best teams in the nation and a true title contender. The Sooners will take their opportunity and capture their first national title since 2000.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
