Odds of Each Suitor Acquiring Top Remaining 2015-16 MLB Free Agents
With 10 shopping days left before Christmas, the hot-stove league's shelves are still stocked with some premium gifts that teams can bestow upon their fans, despite a flurry of activity that has already seen the likes of Jason Heyward, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann all put under the tree already.
From contact hitters to sluggers to front-line starters, there's plenty available, though not every team can afford to add a big-ticket item—a player whose arrival can change a franchise's outlook for 2016 and beyond—especially when, in some cases, the prices are insane.
But a handful of suitors, seemingly unfazed by price, remain for each of these players. Which teams stand the best chance at landing the remaining elite free agents?
Let's take a look.
OF Yoenis Cespedes
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Los Angeles Angels: 10-to-1
It was just over a week ago that the New York Daily News' Mark Feinsand reported that the club was thinking about making a run at Cespedes, one of many outfielders the Angels reportedly have interest in.
While his right-handed bat wouldn't be an ideal fit in a lineup that's short on lefties, he'd be a massive upgrade over the team's current left field options, both in the field and at the plate. His power would also help to lessen the impact of Albert Pujols' likely early-season absence after undergoing foot surgery.
That the Angels have yet to land a big-ticket item this winter and have a need, coupled with owner Arte Moren's previous willingness to spend, could give them the advantage over the rest of the field.
San Francisco Giants: 15-to-1
Like the Angels, left field has been a weak spot for the Giants, who would certainly benefit from adding a player of his caliber. Uncertainty about whether the team has the ability to add a $100 million player after spending $90 million to sign Jeff Samardzija keeps San Francisco from having the best odds.
New York Mets: 75-to-1
Not re-signing Cespedes isn't going to go over well in New York, especially now that calls to bring the slugger back have grown louder since Michael Cuddyer's sudden retirement. But the team's front office expects the slugger to be too costly to retain.
"It's unlikely right now that he ends up a Met," assistant general manager John Ricco told ESPN's Adam Rubin as the winter meetings were getting underway. "I think that’s fair to say. I think we will end up meeting with his agent. Right now, I still think he's looking at a deal that would be north of what we would consider."
The only way Cespedes winds up back with the Mets is if his market completely collapses—and there's no reason to believe that it will.
Kansas City Royals: 100-to-1
Prepare yourselves, for the defending world champions have been linked to a handful of the top free agents still on the market, per MLBTradeRumors.com's tracker—and they're all ultimately going to be far too expensive for the Royals to ultimately sign.
Potentially in the mix: Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
SP Johnny Cueto
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Los Angeles Dodgers: 10-to-1
The Dodgers aren't about to go into the regular season with four left-handed starters in their rotation—free-agent addition Hisashi Iwakuma currently stands as the only right-hander in the group—nor are they going to pass up the opportunity to plug the gaping hole Zack Greinke left when he signed with Arizona.
As CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes: "Cueto, 29, is in many ways a logical Greinke replacement since his lifetime ERA of 3.30 is actually slightly better than Greinke's 3.35, and his WHIP is an identical 1.18."
Cueto, who last month turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the Diamondbacks, per MLB.com's Steve Gilbert, isn't going to come at a discount—but money has never stood in the Dodgers way before.
St. Louis Cardinals: 50-to-1
Cueto's agent, Bryce Dixon, told Zach Links of MLBtraderumors.com that he's spoken to the Cardinals and could see his client fitting in seamlessly at Busch Stadium.
Given Cueto's role in a 2010 brawl between Cincinnati and St. Louis, when he kicked Cardinals catcher Jason LaRue in the head while wearing spikes, ultimately ending LaRue's career, that last part may or may not be the case, especially with clubhouse leaders Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright still around.
While he'd fill a need, the Cardinals don't necessarily need to add another front-of-the-rotation arm. And there are plenty of quality mid-rotation starters still available that won't cost nearly as much—or potentially cause angst among the team's fanbase.
1B/OF Chris Davis
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Baltimore Orioles: 15-to-1
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Davis is seeking a deal in the vicinity of eight years, $200 million—one year and $46 million more than the offer Baltimore extended and has since pulled back, with Baltimore said to be looking at other options.
While there may be a substantial gap between the two sides, Davis' agent, Scott Boras, tells the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly that he "has been given no indication that Orioles have closed the door in their negotiations with Davis."
There's a case to be made that Davis is more valuable to the Orioles than he would be another team, and with a lack of big-market clubs capable of meeting his asking price looking to add a high-priced slugger, the Orioles may ultimately be Davis' best option to get paid.
Los Angeles Angels: 75-to-1
Angels general manager Billy Eppler tells Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times that he's kept in contact with Boras in regards to Davis, but that adding another slugger isn't necessarily a priority for him.
Were Davis to make his way to Los Angeles, he'd likely serve as the team's primary left fielder, given the presence of C.J. Cron and the injured Albert Pujols at first base.
St. Louis Cardinals: 90-to-1
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal speculated that the Cardinals could make a run at Davis, but USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that St. Louis has no plans to pursue him, comfortable with a platoon of Matt Adams and Brandon Moss at first base.
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OF Alex Gordon
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St. Louis Cardinals: 5-to-1
The Cardinals plan to"aggressively pursue" Gordon as a replacement for Jason Heyward, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, who reported earlier this month that Kansas City felt St. Louis would be its "stiffest competition" to retain the homegrown star.
Royals fans are already freaking out at the idea of Gordon in a Cardinals uniform, per the Kansas City Star's Pete Grathoff and rightly so. Gordon's defense, penchant for getting on base and pop, even as he enters his age-32 season, won't be easy for them to replace.
He'd have to play a new position, right field, with the Cardinals—at least until 2017, when St. Louis could part ways with Matt Holliday—but as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal opines, the Cardinals could potentially sign Gordon and still add a free-agent starter such as Japan's Kenta Maeda.
San Francisco Giants: 5-to-1
Rival evaluators tell ESPN's Buster Olney the Giants are the "frontrunners" for Gordon, and why not? While San Francisco has won three World Series without a consistently reliable left fielder, Gordon's left-handed bat, plus defense and knack for getting on base make him a nearly perfect fit.
Los Angeles Angels: 5-to-1
Angels general manager Billy Eppler knows what he's looking for this winter—and it sure sounds a lot like Gordon.
"One of the areas of focus is on getting guys who make contact, who have an idea of the strike zone," Eppler told the Los Angeles Times' Mike DiGiovanna. "We don't have to chase after multiple 20-plus homer guys."
That Gordon is a left-handed hitter only makes him that much more appealing to the Angels, who boast only one everyday player that's a lefty—Kole Calhoun.
Kansas City Royals: 50-to-1
While the Royals had hopes of re-signing Gordon, per the New York Post's Joel Sherman, those likely went out the window when Jason Heyward signed his eight-year, $184 million pact with the Chicago Cubs.
Paying Gordon $20 million a year (or more) simply doesn't work for a team like Kansas City, which will soon need to deal with extensions for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez.
Potentially in the mix: Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers
OF Justin Upton
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Baltimore Orioles: 20-to-1
Upton would both plug a hole in one of Baltimore's outfield corners and help to replace some of the production lost by Chris Davis' potential departure, but whether the Orioles are willing to go above and beyond the seven-year, $154 million deal they offered Davis for anyone is anybody's guess.
The 28-year-old has been on the Orioles' radar since he was in high school, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, who first reported Baltimore's meeting with Upton's agent, Larry Reynolds last week in Nashville, Tennessee, at baseball's annual winter meetings.
Los Angeles Angels: 30-to-1
Left field was a black hole for the Angels in 2015, with nine players combining to hit .212 with 11 home runs, 66 RBI and a .574 OPS. Upton surpassed those numbers with relative ease, hitting .251 with 26 home runs, 81 RBI and a .790 OPS while playing half the season in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
There have been conflicting reports about the Angels' level of interest in Upton, with MLB.com's Andrew Simon and Fox Sports' Jon Morosi reporting that the two sides have had ongoing discussions, while the Orange County Register's Jeff Fletcher hears from a source that there's "nothing happening."
As previously noted, Angels' GM Billy Eppler isn't necessarily looking for another slugger, though he could be a fallback option should the team fall short in its pursuit of Alex Gordon.
Potentially in the mix: Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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