2015 Fantasy Football Playoffs: Best and Worst Running Back Matchups

The running back position features a handful of reliable options and far too many week-to-week players, which makes playoff time tricky. I’ve referred to some of the popular waiver-wire additions as flavors of the week because, unfortunately, that’s all they end up being before disappearing back into the fantasy abyss.

With the fantasy playoffs upon us, many of you have tweeted me your running back questions, specifically about who to trust at the most important time of the season. There wasn’t much on the waiver wire coming into Week 14, so you were likely set at the position, but you may be wondering who is reliable enough to play and who should remain on the bench.

I’ve selected three backs you haven’t locked into your lineup for various reasons but should be starting for you in the fantasy playoffs. This could be due to role, past performance or schedule. In the case of Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls, it’s all three.

I also broke down the three players you’re better off staying away from if at all possible down the stretch. As I said, with no major moves to be made in terms of pickups, you’re likely stuck with what you have at running back. That means St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley likely remains in your starting lineup, but the expectations have to change. 

This is not the right time to take chances, especially with the players who have brought you this far. It is time to understand who can lead you to a championship and who will cost you that chance at glory.

Best: Thomas Rawls

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The Seattle Seahawks would be foolish to go away from Thomas Rawls at any point over the next month.

I’d argue Rawls has been a top-five addition off the waiver wire, and if you’ve been rolling with him for the last three weeks, I doubt you will argue with me. It’s no coincidence that when Rawls took over for Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) following a bad loss to the Arizona Cardinals at home in Week 10, the Seahawks started to turn their season around.

There’s some concern that Rawls won’t keep the starting job when and if Lynch comes back before the end of the regular season. First of all, head coach Pete Carroll told 710 ESPN Seattle that when it comes to Lynch, “It’s so much to ask him to jump back in after three weeks. I don’t even know how we could think that way, but this is week three starting up, so we’ll see how it goes.”

Carroll was noncommittal on Lynch’s return, and even if he does get cleared before Week 17, why would the Seahawks hand the starting job and a major role right back to him? In seven games, Lynch is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, has just one game with 100 rushing yards and hasn’t had more than two games with 20-plus carries. 

Meanwhile, Rawls has four games with at least 100 rushing yards, including two of the last three games. He’s scored in all of those games and has clearly been a big reason for the team’s offensive turnaround. Coming into Week 14, Rawls was second among running backs in total fantasy points over the last four weeks.

There should be no questions about Rawls’ performance or role, so I could stop my breakdown right there with enough evidence to roll with him in the fantasy playoffs. However, another reason for him to remain a prime fantasy asset is the schedule.

This week, Rawls faces off against the Baltimore Ravens, and while they’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points, they haven’t faced too many tough tasks besides Lamar Miller over the last month. Rawls is lucky enough to follow that with games against the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams. The Browns are average against fantasy running backs, while the Rams have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the last four weeks.

What this comes down to is that Rawls’ job is totally safe, and it should be because he’s been playing at a high level when the team needed him the most. If Rawls is on your roster heading into the fantasy playoffs, just enjoy the ride.

Worst: Todd Gurley

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The quarterback situation in St. Louis is one of the biggest concerns for Todd Gurley.

When the St. Louis Rams played it slow with Gurley early in the season as he worked his way back from a major knee injury, I, along with many others, preached patience since Gurley’s talent and production would be worth the wait. His owners are likely running out of patience as we hit the most important time of the year.

Gurley ripped off four straight games with at least 128 rushing yards from Weeks 4-8, but since then, he’s failed to rush for 100 yards and hasn’t even hit 70 rushing yards in the last four weeks. What’s even more maddening is his lack of touches. In the last four games, he didn’t have more than 12 carries three times, including back-to-back games with just nine carries. 

The problem is that the Rams are a bad team. They’ve lost their last five games, and three of those have come by 24 points. It’s tough to run it a lot when you’re getting beat that badly. It’s also hard to move the ball when your quarterback is Nick Foles or Case Keenum. With that garbage at quarterback, you won’t be surprised to find out the team ranks last in passing yards per game.

If you’re an opposing defense, your only focus should be to stop Gurley, because there’s no reason to respect the passing game. In the next three weeks, those defenses include the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. 

None of those teams have allowed even 70 rushing yards to running backs in the last two games. All three rank in the top 10 of fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs in the last four weeks.

The Rams decided to fire offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and turn the reins over to Rob Boras. When asked about the differences in the offense, Boras inspired no excitement for Gurley when he said, “There’s not going to be a whole lot that’s going to change,” per Rams insider Myles Simmons. 

In Boras’ defense, there’s not a quick fix in this offense. The quarterback situation is the worst in the league, and the offensive line has played poorly. Those are major factors in Gurley’s downward spiral.

Because of his talent, it’ll be hard to bench Gurley, but no longer can you go into a matchup with the confidence he has a legit chance to win you a week almost single-handedly. Now, you’ll just be lucky if he performs well enough to justify a spot in your startling lineup.

Best: Lamar Miller

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If the Miami Dolphins know what's good for them, Lamar Miller should be the foundation of their offense.

Can you trust Lamar Miller?

To answer that question, first you have to know if you trust the Miami Dolphins.

In a season marred by coaching firings and empty promises, the coaching staff has jerked around Miller, and that’s left him with an inconsistent, undefined role. Or at least it did until last week’s strong performance. He ran 20 times for 113 yards and added a catch for five yards in a win over the Baltimore Ravens.

What’s so maddening about Miller’s performance and opportunity is that it came after two games where he wound up with a total of 12 carries for 46 yards and five receptions for 22 yards. Miller’s role was clearly a bone of contention for interim head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, which explains why the Dolphins fired Lazor and promoted Zac Taylor.

Because Miller came through in such a big way in Taylor’s first game as the team’s offensive coordinator, you’d have to think we’ll see the running back get another heavy workload against the Giants on Sunday, followed by the San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts in the coming weeks. All three teams are below average against running backs in terms of fantasy points allowed.

The Dolphins don’t have much to be excited about in what’s been an underwhelming season. After Miller racked up his big game last week, it would make sense to stick with him. He’s been tough to trust for fantasy, but out of necessity and with beatable upcoming matchups, look for him to be a reliable contributor during the fantasy playoffs.

Worst: Darren McFadden

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Is anyone surprised to see Darren McFadden running out of gas?

Predicting the demise of Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden was almost too easy but ultimately not a surprise. He may have scored against the Washington Redskins in Week 13, but he wound up with just 14 carries for 53 yards and one reception for six yards.

He’s failed to rush for 60 yards in three of the last four games and has just three touchdowns on the season. McFadden took over the biggest role in the team’s backfield in Week 7, when he carried 29 times for a season-high 152 yards. He had three other games with at least 20 carries and hit 17 carries between all that.

Amazingly, McFadden’s stayed fairly healthy and could end up playing all 16 games for the second straight season. That doesn’t mean his health has been a complete nonissue, but other than a groin injury he played through in Week 11, he’s been able to stay on the field. 

McFadden has been in the league since 2008 and has missed 19 games since 2011. He played much of that time on bad teams with the Oakland Raiders. He’s on another bad team now, and the team has quickly gotten away from feeding him as much as he did when he was rolling.

The team ranks 12th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game. That’s not bad, but it’s a far cry from 2014 when the Cowboys were third in rushing attempts and second in rushing yards per game.

Over the next three weeks, McFadden goes on the road to face the Green Bay Packers, comes back home to take on the New York Jets and then goes to Buffalo to square off against the Bills. McFadden’s drop in fantasy stock is more about his diminishing role on a bad team than it is those three matchups, although concerns are there if the Cowboys play behind in games they’ll definitely be considered the underdog.

Best: T.J. Yeldon

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oct 25, 2015; London, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon (24) carries the ball against the Buffalo Bills during NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If the Jacksonville Jaguars stick to how they treated T.J. Yeldon last week, he’ll be fantasy gold in the playoffs.

In last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans, Yeldon didn’t run particularly well with 15 carries for 57 yards, but he scored because he actually received multiple touches near the goal line. In the past, those went to Toby Gerhart or Denard Robinson for some strange reason. Yeldon added four receptions for 79 yards to give himself a solid fantasy outing.

Thanks to the boost from his role in the passing game, Yeldon was able to rack up more than 100 total yards for the first time since Week 9 against the New York Jets. I’ve always said the mark of a true RB1 is a player who can threaten to get to 100 total yards in any given week, because it means he’s getting enough volume as a runner and/or receiver to do so. Yeldon has been getting that volume all year.

He’s rarely been great, but he has been consistently good for almost the entire season, which has made him easier to deal with than someone like Gurley, a fellow rookie. Gurley’s definitely more talented, but his team is a mess, and his schedule stinks in the fantasy playoffs. The Jaguars aren’t a contender, but at least they have a strong offense and a favorable schedule for Yeldon. 

Over the next three weeks, Yeldon is home against the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons and then heads to New Orleans for a matchup with the Saints in Week 16. Both the Saints and Falcons are in the top four of most fantasy points allowed to running backs in the last four weeks, with the Colts among the top 12.

The matchups are great, and the role looks better with more chances at the goal line, so as long as Yeldon stays health and busy, he could be a key cog for a championship team.

Worst: LeGarrette Blount

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Game flow has been important to LeGarrette Blount's success, which is why his struggles will continue going forward.

It’s tough to be a front-runner when your team is losing.

LeGarrette Blount and the New England Patriots are finding that out the hard way after losses to the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles in consecutive weeks following an undefeated start to the season. Those losses come following injuries to running back Dion Lewis (torn ACL), wide receiver Julian Edelman (knee) and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Less options in the offense haven't translated to more touches and production for Blount. Over the last four weeks, his rushing totals are 54, 27, 56 and 66, the latter of which came on 19 carries with a touchdown in Week 10. Blount caught just three receptions for 16 yards over that span.

Because the Patriots were in tight battles in all those games, Blount didn’t get the same volume or play the same role of beatdown closer at the end of the game. His volume is coming during more important parts of the game, and opponents are exposing him as an average runner who doesn’t have the same kind of juice when New England asks him to carry the offense. 

Over the next three weeks, Blount faces the Texans in Houston, the Titans in New England and goes to New Jersey to take on the Jets. Both the Texans and Jets are strong against the run, and as we’ve seen against strong run defenses, head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t even bother with Blount. In Week 7, he had three carries for minus-three yards against the Jets. Is that what you want in the Week 16 rematch?

Blount is at his best when he’s getting volume and the Patriots are dominating the competition. Neither of those things is happening with the fantasy playoffs set to get underway in Week 14, so it’s time to look elsewhere for a more reliable option to get in your lineup.