College Football Playoff 2015-16: Predictions, Odds, Schedule for Final 4 Teams

We're less than three weeks away from what should be two great College Football Playoff semifinal matchups.

Despite a season's worth of debate, the final weekend provided clarity for the playoff. The CFP committee was able to avoid a major controversy as it selected the four teams most thought should be playing for the national championship.

Here is a look at the schedule for the two games, as well as predictions for both games leading up to the title game on January 11.

Orange Bowl

No. 1 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners

When: Dec. 31

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Odds: Oklahoma -4 (OddsShark)

The Clemson Tigers were everyone's No. 1 pick, but the only undefeated team in FBS is actually an underdog in the first semifinal game against the Oklahoma Sooners.

In fact, Oklahoma is FiveThirtyEight's odds-on favorite to win the national championship:

Why is the No. 4 ranked team the pick to beat an undisputed No. 1 ranked team? Basically, it's a numbers game.

In a USA Today article from John Ewing, Prediction Machine picked the Sooners as champions a day before college football's final day of games. It ran 50,000 simulations and predicted Oklahoma to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in a No. 2 vs. No. 3 game and then the Tigers in the national championship, 71.7 percent of the time by a score of 36-28, before the Sooners actually landed at No. 4.

Here is how the results were calculated, according to the article:

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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats—weighted slightly more toward recent games—to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoff. 

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Of course, it doesn't take in to account mental errors or certain things happening beyond anyone's control, but that is pretty convincing evidence.

The game still has to be played on the field and Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson will help make this game close. Clemson's quarterback has shined in his sophomore campaign, throwing for 3,512 yards and 30 touchdowns. He also rushed for 887 yards and 11 scores.

Campus Insiders shared some of his highlights during a 45-37 ACC Championship Game victory over the No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels:

However, the Sooners counter with a pretty good quarterback of their own in Baker Mayfield. The junior has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards and 35 touchdowns.

Both offenses have proven they can score—Oklahoma has averaged 52 points per game during a seven-game win streak, and Clemson averages 38.5 per contest—but the Sooners have proven they do it a little better.

Plus, Oklahoma did it against the fourth-ranked conference in the Big 12, while the ACC was ranked sixth.

The Sooners are playing better than almost anyone in the country right now, allowing just 19.4 points per game over the past seven. Although the Tar Heels have the highest-scoring offense in the ACC, Clemson allowed them to score 37, nearly 20 more points than the 18.8 the Tigers had been giving up.

Offense will be aplenty during the game, but the Sooners should make a play or two more on defense to help seal a close victory.

Prediction: Oklahoma wins, 34-31

Cotton Bowl

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans

When: Dec. 31

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Odds: Alabama -9.5 (OddsShark)

Alabama should win this one against the Michigan State Spartans, but you can forget about the 9.5 points. The Crimson Tide are a strong team no doubt, but it seems their pedigree and membership in the perceived best conference, the SEC, give them a boost at times.

Ralph D. Russo of the Associated Press pointed out earlier this week Alabama was overrated in last year's semifinal round against the Ohio State Buckeyes, which resulted in a 42-35 OSU victory:

As would any team in the final four, both bring impressive resumes to the table.

The Spartans are a one-point loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers away from being undefeated, while Alabama has beaten three teams ranked in either the AP or CFP Top 25 polls. Its one loss was to a ranked Ole Miss Rebels team.

USA Today's Nick Schwartz wrote that despite the huge spread, he doesn't think Alabama is a clear favorite:

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Some fans would argue that Michigan State has a more impressive résumé than Alabama and should be favored in the Cotton Bowl in the first place, but there’s no reason to believe that the Crimson Tide are an obvious favorite. Alabama’s defense is phenomenal, but the Tide are ultra-reliant on running back Derrick Henry (who might just be the best player in the nation, to be fair) — but the Spartans have a top-15 run defense this season.

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That might be true, but Henry, the Heisman front-runner per OddsShark, has not seen a team he couldn't run on this season. The only SEC team he didn't break 100 rushing yards against was the Arkansas Razorbacks. Even so, he finished with 95 yards and a score.

Look for Henry to control the ground game just enough to score a late touchdown that will be the difference.

Alabama comes out on top, but it will be closer than Las Vegas expects.

Prediction: Alabama wins, 24-20.