NFL Predictions Week 14: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

This is it: the home stretch, the drive to the finish, the race to the wire, the burst to the bubble (or something like that)—Week 14 of the NFL season.

It's the second week of December, and only now do we have we finally have our first mathematical elimination. Sorry, Cleveland Browns fans, but you're officially waiting for next year. Again. With 31 teams still technically in the hunt and plenty of divisional matchups on the slate, this could be the week your favorite team joins the Browns in exile—or cements its status as a contender.

As with every week in the NFL, there will be shocks, surprises and eye-rolling, of course. There will be upsets and blowouts, studs and flops, out-of-nowhere superstars, and bitter, crushing failures. Which teams and players will end up in which categories is an unknowable mystery, but for our team of top NFL experts, it's just a little less unknowable.

With the collective brainpower of eight of Bleacher Report's top NFL minds, we can gaze a few days into the future and tell you—as well as anybody can—who's rising up and who's trending down this pivotal NFL weekend.

Biggest Upset

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals—four votes

Two of the hottest teams in the AFC are matched up in what's arguably the weekend's best game. The 10-2 Bengals are trying to hold on to the top seed, while the 7-5 Steelers are trying to claw their way back into the No. 6 spot (or, ideally, higher).                        

Four of our experts like the Steelers to go into Paul Brown Stadium and win.

Now that Pittsburgh finally has Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton all healthy and non-suspended, the Steelers have averaged a whopping 35.8 points over their last four games. That's 9.9 points per game higher than their full-season average.

The last time these two teams met, Roethlisberger was in his first game back from injury, and the game was a 16-10 slugfest. This time around, it could be a track meet—and the Steelers have just a little more speed on offense.

Others receiving votes: Washington (+3.5) over Chicago Bears—two votes

Biggest Blowout

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Expert Consensus Pick: Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens—five votes

It's hard to find two teams coming off more disparate performances this season. The Seahawks just capped a three-game win streak (also five of their last six) with a 38-7 road thrashing of the contending Minnesota Vikings. The Ravens just dropped a soul-crushing 15-13 match against the floundering Miami Dolphins.

The Seahawks are 7-5, finally putting up points in bunches and defending like they always have. The Ravens are a decimated shell of their usual selves, playing backups and third-stringers at every offensive skill position.

The Trent Dilfer Bowl, if five of our experts are right, is going to be seriously lopsided— and it won't be won by the Ravens.

It's a similar story in the NFC South, where the undefeated Carolina Panthers are taking on an Atlanta Falcons team that just finished running a 5-1 start in reverse. The .500 Falcons have lost all of their offensive spark, and they're taking on one of the toughest defenses in the league. No wonder three of our experts voted for this game as the biggest blowout.

Others receiving votes: Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons—three votes

More Rushing Yards: Devonta Freeman or Cam Newton?

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Devonta Freeman—seven votes

NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman was emphatic in voting for Devonta Freeman to pile up more rushing yards than Cam Newton. Why? "Because Freemans always win," he wrote.

Weeks ago, this question would have been mind-boggling—and maybe it is anyway, as our experts came down almost unanimously on Freeman's side. But Freeman's sudden burst of triple-digit rushing days is over; he hasn't had 100 yards rushing in a game since Week 7.

In fact, Freeman has rushed for just 43 and 47 yards in his two games since returning from a concussion. Further, the Panthers are the second-best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 87.2 yards per game on the season. Double extra further, Newton is averaging 39.7 yards per game.

The majority of our experts are almost certainly right that Freeman will run for more yards than Newton. But the exception—NFL Analyst Ty Schalter, the humble author of this article—thinks it could be much closer than many realize.

Others receiving votes: Cam Newton

Biggest Mismatch

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Expert Consensus Pick: Matt Schaub vs. Seattle Seahawks secondary—three votes

The Seahawks' vaunted Legion of Boom is finally playing with some spark, and it couldn't come at a worse time for Ravens backup quarterback Matt Schaub.

After safety Kam Chancellor's holdout, the Seahawks took much of the first half of the season to get on the same page. Though they clamped down on some weaker offenses, it wasn't until their nearly total shutdown of Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson and the contending Vikings that the Seahawks looked like their old, intimidating selves. 

Schaub, struggling as part of a ragtag crew of fill-ins wearing purple, is going to have a heck of a time moving the ball against this rejuvenated defense.

Two of our experts cast a pessimistic eye on Johnny Manziel and the Browns, while two others love the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense matches up against the New Orleans Saints defense (or lack thereof). 

Others receiving votes: The Cleveland Browns vs. Good Football/Johnny Manziel vs. a defense—two votes, Doug Martin vs. New Orleans Saints run defense, Tampa Bay Buccaneers receivers vs. New Orleans Saints pass defense, Kansas City Chiefs pass rush vs. San Diego Chargers offensive line

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Johnny Manziel—three votes

This category doesn't usually have so many nominations, but our experts saw promise in a lot of signal-callers this week: reclamation projects such as Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick, boom-and-bust youngsters such as Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston and whodathunkit surprise Blaine Gabbert.

The only nominee getting more than one vote was...wait for it...Johnny Manziel, centerpiece of the strangest journey any second-year quarterback has taken to a full-time starting position.

Making headlines (and trouble) almost everywhere he goes, the embattled quarterback is at odds with his head coach and many of his teammates, but he has flashed enough big-play ability to give the porous San Francisco 49ers defense fits. Whether or not it means anything more, our experts like Manziel's ability to hang a couple of big scores on former Browns head coach Eric Mangini's defense.

Others receiving votes: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston

More Passing Yards: Marcus Mariota or Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick—six votes

Marcus Mariota turned all kinds of heads with his fantastic Week 12 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars—especially his 87-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

Mariota has been sneakily prolific; his average of 7.7 yards per attempt ties him with Tom Brady for sixth-best in the NFL, but he doesn't pass nearly as often as most top quarterbacks, depressing his per-game average to a 16th-best 251.2.

Fitzpatrick's averaging slightly fewer yards per game (238.8), but he's been doing that with more attempts for fewer yards each (a 7.0 per-attempt average). That is, he had been.

Over the last two games, Fitzpatrick's gone far more vertical, with wild success. He's completed 66.7 percent for a whopping 667 yards, that's 7.7 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He figures to do better against the Tennessee Titans' 21st-ranked scoring defense than Mariota will against the New York Jets' 11th-ranked scoring unit.

Others receiving votes: Marcus Mariota—two votes

More Turnovers: Matthew Stafford or Case Keenum?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Case Keenum—four votes

Case Keenum has not thrown an interceptions in his 26 attempts this season, but our experts figure the 27-year-old is likely to turn it over more in the face of the Detroit Lions pass rush than Matthew Stafford is against the St. Louis Rams. 

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, though, explains why he's following NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier out of the box:

"

My esteemed colleague Mr. Schalter likely doesn't appreciate voters picking "none of the above" in a category, but, in my defense, it isn't my fault. NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier was the first to hop on board the Schaub Express...

Destination: Downtown Futility.

We are witnessing one of the more bizarre chapters in NFL history every time Schaub takes the field. His innate, God-given talent for throwing pick-sixes transcends reason. It transcends logic. It has ripped a hole in the space-time continuum.

Inside linebackers. Defensive ends on tip drills. All are welcome to partake of the Schaubnanza. On Sunday, he'll get picked for a score by a cheerleader. Maybe that monkey that rides a dog.

It's the NFL equivalent of watching a car accident happen right in front of you.

You know that being excited by the sound of crunching metal and broken glass is wrong. And yet you can't look away.

Embrace the Schaub. He has sacrificed his NFL career. And his dignity. All for our macabre amusement.

And are you not entertained?

"

Others receiving votes: Matt Schaub—two votes, Johnny Manziel, Matthew Stafford

Sleeper RB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Shaun Draughn—four votes

In a surprise turn, one of the categories that normally gets a slew of nominations had only four—and two with more than one vote. The expert consensus Sleeper RB Performance, then, is a little more consensus-y than usual.

Our collective pick of Shaun Draughn makes plenty of sense. Not only has Draughn surprisingly emerged as the chairman of a crowded running back committee, but the 49ers are also facing a profoundly bad Browns defense. Allowing an average of 4.6 yards per carry and 136.3 yards per game, the Browns make every back who faces them look great.

The only other runner to get more than one nomination was the Dolphins' Lamar Miller. Miller had back-to-back huge games in Week 5 and Week 6, rushing for 288 of his 680 season rushing yards on just 33 carries. His only other 100-plus-yard game came last week, when he piled up 113 yards against the Ravens. Two of our experts like him to repeat his strong follow-up act against the New York Giants. 

Others receiving votes: Lamar Miller—two votes, Matt Jones, DeAngelo Williams

Sleeper WR Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Torrey Smith—three votes

If there's one thing Torrey Smith knows how to do well, it's get vertical—and for what might be the first time in his career, 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert proved he can get a speedster like Smith the ball.

A game-winning 71-yard overtime touchdown bomb sealed a huge Week 12 upset win for Smith and Gabbert's 49ers. In Week 13, they take on the flailing Browns. On the other side of the ball, of course, will be our experts' Sleeper QB Performance nominee, Johnny Manziel.

No one could have foreseen a panel of experts projecting a Manziel-Gabbert shootout in 2015, but the prospect is as likely as it is thrilling.

Out of the five-strong cast of truly sleepy sleepers, NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon nominated the sleepiest: Quincy Enunwa, who averaged 3.8 targets and a healthy 13.0 yards per catch in seven games before being suspended four games for domestic violence charges. Now, he's back and figures to get some looks from Ryan Fitzpatrick, the red-hot Jets quarterback.

Others receiving votes: Kamar Aiken, Quincy Enunwa, Chris Hogan, Devin Funchess, Jermaine Kearse

Sleeper TE Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Austin Seferian-Jenkins—four votes

One should never start a fantasy player on the first week back from an extended injury, and Buccaneers tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins bore that guideline out last week. On the field for only 21 of the Bucs' 71 snaps, per Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times, Seferian-Jenkins nevertheless had six targets.

Jameis Winston, his quarterback, has been on fire as of late, and a big, athletic pass-catcher in the middle of the field is a young passer's best friend. Seferian-Jenkins should be back at full speed against the historically woeful Saints defense.

The Bucs not only have a chance to roll up a bunch of points on a division rival, but they can also extend their lead over the Falcons second place in the NFC South. Seferian-Jenkins should be a huge part of their effort to capitalize.

Others receiving votes: Scott Chandler, Crockett Gillmore, Ladarius Green

Best Defensive Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Tyrann Mathieu—three votes

At the beginning of the year, the schedule-makers probably loved this Thursday Night Football matchup—two probable wild-card contenders, one on the rise, one trying to cash in before its window closes. That’s as good as TNF ever gets.

Instead, the Arizona Cardinals are rolling through the NFC and have all but locked up the West, while the Vikings looked helpless to do anything against the Seahawks, the Cardinals' second banana.

If these two teams play to current form, as three of our experts voted, the biggest questions will be how many points the Cardinals win by and how many picks quarterback Teddy Bridgewater throws to Mathieu and the NFL's third-pickiest secondary.

Others receiving votes: Ziggy Ansah, Justin Houston, Deshawn Shead, J.J. Watt

Over/Under: 30 Combined Raiders/Broncos Points

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Expert Consensus Pick: over—four votes

At the outset of the season, this matchup probably looked like an offensive tour de force: Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos' wild stable of weapons against budding star Derek Carr and the reloaded Oakland Raiders receivers.

Instead, Manning is on the bench, the Broncos have the No. 1 defense in football, and after a hot start, Carr and the Raiders have dropped four of their last five games—averaging just 21.2 points in the process.

New Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler hasn't been bad, but he hasn't scored many more points than absolutely necessary. Osweiler has led his team to three wins while averaging just 19.3 points in regulation. That's a combined 40.5 points, according to recent trends, which is why four of our experts took the over.

But the potential is here for a low-scoring game. If the Broncos offense disrupts the Raiders as it did the Chargers, holding them to single digits, Osweiler and Co. won't have much reason to press the issue.

Others receiving votes: under—three votes

Flop of the Week

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Expert Consensus Pick: Derek Carr—three votes

The logic of this pick is written all over the Over/Under slide: If the Raiders can't muster more than the average 17.5 points the Broncos have allowed all season, quarterback Derek Carr won't have much of a day.

NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon, though, joined NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman in tagging rookie Marcus Mariota. Why?

"Mariota had a ridiculous performance last week against Jacksonville," Gagnon wrote, "but this is the life of a rookie quarterback. He's due for a dud performance, and on the road against a stellar Jets defense, it just makes sense here."

Others receiving votes: Marcus Mariota—two votes, Sam Bradford, Drew Brees, Blaine Gabbert