Predicting Landing Spots for Top 15 Post-Winter Meetings MLB Trade Targets
The 2015 MLB winter meetings have come and gone, and plenty of notable moves have already changed the landscape of MLB.
Now that the winter meetings are behind us, we have a better sense of the trade market and which players could potentially be moved before the beginning of the 2016 season. Over the next few slides, we'll try to predict where each of the top 15 trade targets will eventually wind up.
Some of the players on this list are as good as gone. Jay Bruce, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Cashner and others have been linked to trades all winter and have very little chance of returning to their current squads.
On the other hand, there are several trade targets that teams would be better suited holding onto. Carlos Carrasco, Jonathan Lucroy and Brett Gardner may have heard their names constantly uttered in the ever-present trade winds, but there's plenty of reason for their current organizations to retain their services in 2016.
Let us know what you think about our predictions in the comment section below. Who would you like to see your team target over the next few months? What type of package do you think it will require to add any of the players on this list?
Judging by the lucrative contracts MLB teams are shelling out to free agents this winter, upgrading through trades may be the best option for teams to add players. The next few slides will identity the top available targets and where we think they'll call home beginning in 2016.
Javier Baez
1 of 15
The Chicago Cubs have been in the center of numerous trade discussions this winter, with talks often revolving around talented infielder Javier Baez.
Baez burst on the scene in 2014, hitting nine homers in 52 games. Unfortunately, he also whiffed a jaw-dropping 41.5 percent of the time. Baez proved he had the raw talent to succeed in the majors, but it was clear that his plate discipline needed some polishing.
In 2015, Baez regained some of the shine he lost toward the end of 2014. The 23-year-old overcome injuries to slash .324/.385/.527, hit 13 homers and steal 17 bases in Triple-A. He was rewarded with 28 games and a postseason roster spot, where he looked much more comfortable against major league pitching.
Baez has the game-breaking ability that opposing teams will desire in any potential trade with the Cubs. The Cubs are aware of what Baez brings to the table, and won't part with Baez unless they can acquire a young, controllable starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
There are several of those hurlers on the market, but the San Diego Padres have the need for an impact infielder and the starting pitching—Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, James Shields—that the Cubs are looking for.
Predicted Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
Jay Bruce
2 of 15
Back in November, Ken Rosenthal summed up Jay Bruce's trade value perfectly.
"On one hand, Bruce represents a more affordable alternative to the major free-agent outfielders—Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton," Rosenthal said. "On the other hand, he batted .226 with 26 homers and a .729 OPS last season at age 28, when he figured to be peaking."
Rosenthal's words allude to the conundrum teams are facing this winter. While he's under contract through 2016 with a $13 million team option for 2017, Bruce has seen a serious decline in production over the last few seasons.
From 2009 to 2013, he hit 20 or more homers, including three straight seasons of 30-plus from 2011 to 2013. Bruce hit .217 and went deep only 18 times in 2014, before slashing .226/.294/.434 in 2015.
However, the power did return in 2015. Bruce hit 26 homers and drove in 87 runs, which would be of value to teams in need of some pop. The Baltimore Orioles fit that mold, especially after pulling their offer to slugger Chris Davis earlier this week.
Bruce makes sense for a Baltimore team hoping to remain in contention in 2016. He'll drive in runs, and if the rest of his offensive game bounces back then the Orioles will be in better shape in both the short term and long term.
Predicted Landing Spot: Baltimore Orioles
Carlos Carrasco
3 of 15
The Cleveland Indians could use a few offensive upgrades, and trading from their strong starting rotation seems like the easiest way to do that. Cleveland starters led baseball in strikeouts per nine innings last season.
Of Cleveland's attractive young hurlers, Carlos Carrasco has garnered the most interest. The right-hander posted a 3.63 ERA on the heels of a 2.55 mark in 2014, and his 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fifth in all of baseball last season.
Carrasco is also one of the best bargains in MLB. His current deal will take him through the 2018 season, with affordable team options for 2019 and 2020. Carrasco is owed just $37.5 million during that time.
The Shelby Miller blockbuster set the market for controllable, young hurlers. Carrasco is arguably a more attractive asset than Miller, so a similar, if not better, return would be needed to acquire his services.
There's no guarantee that subtracting from the rotation in order to add to the offense will undoubtedly lead to more wins for the Indians. Cleveland will receive calls, but keeping Carrasco is a much better option than dealing him and watching him flourish somewhere else for the next five seasons.
Predicted Landing Spot: Cleveland Indians
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Andrew Cashner
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Andrew Cashner may not have the track record of James Shields or the current form of Tyson Ross, but he's still an attractive trade target for teams with holes in their starting rotations.
Cashner posted a 4.34 ERA this past season, but he pitched much better than that mark indicated. The right-hander struck out over 20 percent of the batters he faced while maintaining a near-50 percent ground-ball rate.
The 29-year-old throws hard, plain and simple. Cashner's 94.9 mph fastball average ranked eighth in MLB this past season. Velocity isn't everything, but it bodes well when combined with Cashner's propensity to generate ground-ball contact.
Unlike other hurlers on the trade market, Cashner is under contract for a single year in 2016. That will diminish his value, but a team built to win now will still have interest in one year of his services. There's a number of teams that fit that description, but the New York Yankees could desperately use a dependable starter with a rotation filled with question marks.
Predicted Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Aroldis Chapman
5 of 15
Aroldis Chapman's trade value will obviously depend on the domestic abuse investigation that has already derailed a potential move to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Cincinnati Reds are still trying to trade Chapman while he's being investigated on allegations he choked his girlfriend. If Chapman is suspended, the report says that teams can earn an extra year of control due to the All-Star closer having less than six years of major league service.
If Chapman is guilty, that's an unfortunate loophole in a disgusting situation. Even so, teams remain interested in the 27-year-old. It's understandable, as Chapman has a career ERA of 2.17 and has fanned nearly 43 percent of the batters he's faced since his debut in 2010.
The Dodgers are likely keeping track of the situation, but a new suitor has emerged in the Chapman sweepstakes. According to ESPN's Marly Rivera, the Washington Nationals reportedly have "significant interest" in trading for Chapman.
The Nationals have two closers already on the roster in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon, but neither is as talented as Chapman. Another reason for Washington's interest? New manager Dusty Baker dealt with Chapman for four seasons with the Reds.
Predicted Landing Spot: Washington Nationals
Jose Fernandez
6 of 15
The Miami Marlins have flirted with the idea of trading ace Jose Fernandez, but it doesn't seem like teams will be able to match Miami's astronomical demands.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, "Talks involving Marlins superstar pitcher Jose Fernandez were alternately described as 'flickering' or 'fading'" as of Dec. 9. Heyman said Miami's best trade partner may have been the Arizona Diamondbacks, who moved for Shelby Miller last week.
The Marlins' demands may seem ridiculous, but Fernandez has incredible value. He has a career 2.40 ERA and has struck out over 29 percent of the batters he's faced. He's also under team control through the 2018 season.
Miami may revisit a potential Fernandez blockbuster down the road, but there doesn't seem to be a team that'll be capable and willing to meet its asking price this winter.
Predicted Landing Spot: Miami Marlins
Todd Frazier
7 of 15
The Cincinnati Reds aren't going to contend in a loaded NL Central in 2016, so any attractive asset on the big league roster should be available via trade.
That includes third baseman Todd Frazier. The 29-year-old has established himself as one of the top right-handed hitters in the National League over the last few seasons. In 2015, he set career highs in homers (35) and RBI (89).
The Cleveland Indians are a team that's been linked to Frazier over the last few days. Cleveland seems willing to part with one of its young hurlers in order to upgrade its offense, but Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reported that the return must be exactly what the club wants.
"Here's the Indians' mindset when it comes to their starting pitching—they can't afford to go out and buy the type of starting pitching they have right now," he said. "So if they trade a Corey Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar or Trevor Bauer, they have to get exactly what they want."
If the Indians want to hold onto their young pitching, they still have the prospects to pull off a deal. Frazier is under contract through the 2017 season, so Cleveland may be more willing to part with a package of top-tier prospects knowing Frazier will be around for at least two seasons.
Predicted Landing Spot: Cleveland Indians
Brett Gardner
8 of 15
Since the beginning of the offseason, Brett Gardner's name has been brought up in various trade talks.
Interest in Gardner is easy to understand. The New York Yankees outfielder was an All-Star for the first time in 2015, slashing .259/.343/.399 with 16 homers and 20 stolen bases. Gardner has always been a nice player, but his double-digit home run totals over the last two seasons have taken his play to the next level.
The Yankees rewarded Gardner's consistency with a four-year, $52-million extension last winter. But with the addition of Aaron Hicks to an outfield consisting of Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran and top prospect Aaron Judge on the way to the big leagues, Gardner may be better utilized to fetch a dependable starting pitcher for 2016.
But just because Gardner is being shopped doesn't mean he'll end up playing elsewhere in 2016. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Yankees view Gardner and fellow trade chip Andrew Miller as key pieces to their 2016 success, and that they will only trade them in order to acquire a starter with "less than three years of service time and high ceilings."
Hence why the Yankees haven't found a deal involving Gardner they like. That likely won't change before the 2016 season, leaving Gardner as the club's starting left fielder next year.
Predicted Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Carlos Gonzalez
9 of 15
Carlos Gonzalez returned to his elite form in 2015, and the Colorado Rockies should benefit from it this winter.
Gonzalez slashed .271/.325/.540 and smacked 40 homers this past season. More importantly, the talented outfielder played in more than 150 games for the first time in his career. For a player whose career has been marred with injury after injury, Gonzalez's elite production in a healthy campaign rebuilt some of the value he'd lost over the last few seasons.
Gonzalez is under contract for the next two years and is owed $37 million during that time. Although that's a pretty penny to pay for Gonzalez's services, it's starting to look like a bargain when taking into account the contracts that outfielders on the free-agent market are pegged to make.
"As teams interested in outfielders hear what the cost will be for free agents such as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, trading for the Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez has become more enticing," Joel Sherman of the New York Post said.
According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals have expressed interest in trading for Gonzalez. The Cardinals missed out on Heyward, and they have the young pitching that will surely be needed to pry Gonzalez from Colorado's grasp.
Predicted Landing Spot: St. Louis Cardinals
Jonathan Lucroy
10 of 15
It seems that Jonathan Lucroy's name is always in trade rumors when he's not really being shopped.
In theory, it makes sense for pundits to assume the Milwaukee Brewers would deal the All-Star catcher. Lucroy has a career slash line of .282/.340/.430 on a bad Brewers ballclub. If Milwaukee were to move him, he'd garner an attractive package of players.
Lucroy has been linked to various rumors again this winter, but Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel recently reported that the Brewers "seem reluctant" to part ways with their backstop.
"We are still open to discussing any number of players on our roster, but as I've said from the opening press conference, Jonathan Lucroy is a really good player," Milwaukee general manager David Stearns told Haudricourt. "He provides a tremendous amount of value to the organization. He's a reason why we can be better next year."
Much of Lucroy's value is derived from his contract. The 29-year-old is under contract through the next two seasons for a total of $9.5 million. No, that's not a misprint—Lucroy may have the best contract in baseball.
The Brewers may revisit dealing Lucroy down the road, but for now, keeping a respected, productive veteran on the roster is just as valuable as any package of prospects he can bring back.
Predicted Landing Spot: Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Miller
11 of 15
After signing Andrew Miller to a four-year, $36 million deal last winter, the New York Yankees have shopped the American League Reliever of the Year this winter.
Miller enjoyed a stellar first season in the Bronx. The southpaw posted a 1.96 ERA and saved 36 games for the Yankees. He ranked in the top 10 among MLB relievers in ERA and finished second to Aroldis Chapman in strikeouts per nine innings.
Speaking of Chapman, it's his domestic abuse investigation that's reportedly opened the door for a potential Dodgers-Yankees partnership regarding Miller. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Chapman's pending legal situation has led to talks between the Yankees and Dodgers regarding Miller.
The Dodgers planned on combining Chapman with Kenley Jansen to form a formidable one-two bullpen punch, so it's hard to imagine L.A. isn't still interested in such a plan. On the other end, the Yankees can absorb the loss of Miller due to the presence of the spectacular Dellin Betances.
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Mitch Moreland
12 of 15
Mitch Moreland has been a mainstay for the Texas Rangers since his debut in 2008, but he could be wearing a different uniform come 2016.
Moreland will enter the final year of his contract next season. The 30-year-old is coming off a 2015 campaign in which he slashed .278/.330/.482 with 23 homers and 85 RBI. Moreland has reached double figures in homers in every season in which he's played more than 114 games.
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Moreland is the "most desired Ranger on the market." He goes on to say that trading the left-handed hitting Moreland would better balance the Texas lineup, and that the Pittsburgh Pirates have emerged as the "most aggressive suitor."
Grant said that talks between the two sides have centered around Pirates hurler Charlie Morton, but that the two clubs haven't been able to iron out the details of a deal. With last week's addition of Jonathon Niese, Pittsburgh should be more willing to part with Morton in exchange for its Pedro Alvarez replacement.
Predicted Landing Spot: Pittsburgh Pirates
Yasiel Puig
13 of 15
It's hard to fathom how far Yasiel Puig's stock has fallen in just one year.
Following a 2014 season in which he slashed .296/.382/.480 and mashed 16 homers, Puig was one of MLB's brightest young stars. But Puig's injury-filled season in 2015 was the beginning a downward spiral for the young Cuban. The 25-year-old played in just 79 games last year.
Then came the off-the-field issues. Puig is currently being investigated for a domestic dispute that occurred at a nightclub. B/R's own Scott Miller followed that negative headline up with a piece that proved Puig is falling out of favor in L.A.
Puig's baggage and elite skill set combine for a difficult decision for the Dodgers' brain trust. Trade him and watch him flourish with another team or keep him and watch him derail another promising season?
One thing is for sure, Puig is certainly not the untouchable asset he once was. L.A. will shop him this winter, but the storm of off-the-field issues will deter teams from pulling the trigger on a trade.
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyson Ross
14 of 15
Of the trio of San Diego starters who have been linked to trade rumors, Tyson Ross bags the most impressive return.
The right-hander first made waves in 2013 when he posted a 3.17 ERA between the starting rotation and bullpen, earning a permanent role in the San Diego rotation in 2014. Ross improved his ERA to a 2.81 mark in 31 starts in his first year as a starter.
Ross' rise to the top of the NL continued this past season. The 28-year-old posted a 3.26 ERA and made over 30 starts for the second straight season, all while improving his strikeout percentage to 25.8 percent. He also generated ground-ball contact 61 percent of the time, which ranked third in MLB.
As if those numbers weren't enough to entice teams, Ross' contract enhances his value further. He's under control for the next two seasons, and at an affordable rate, too.
The Chicago Cubs have stayed away from getting into bed with pitchers on a long-term basis this winter. The Cubs have the resources to acquire Ross, and his team-controlled contract will make parting with prospects easier to do.
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
James Shields
15 of 15
James Shields is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. The right-hander posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts after signing a four-year, $75 million contract with the San Diego Padres last winter.
Yet Shields is still drawing interest from pitching-needy teams this offseason. According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Shields is among a trio of San Diego starters drawing significant interest.
As B/R's own Anthony Witrado points out, Shields' annual value of $18.75 million is now seen as a potential bargain considering the jaw-dropping amounts doled out by teams for starters this winter. There's a chance Shields could use his opt-out clause after next season, but it's hard to see him forfeiting $44 million when he's clearly on the downside of his career.
Shields' value is tough to gauge. He can still contribute to a contender, but don't expect him to swap uniforms unless San Diego gets a worthy return. Because of his diminishing velocity and production and the complication of his opt-out clause, it's unlikely the Padres will find a suitable deal.
Predicted Landing Spot: San Diego Padres
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