Chances of Each Rule 5 Draft Pick Sticking on the Big League Roster

The Rule 5 draft was held Thursday, and several players swapped organizations because of it. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at each pick's chances of sticking on his new team's big league roster. 

Unlike the regular first-year player draft, the Rule 5 draft involves professionals. Players that first signed at age 18 and that haven't been added to a 40-man roster through five seasons, or players that signed at 19 years or older and that haven't been added to a 40-man roster through four seasons are eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process.

If an organization decides to take a player in the major league phase of the draft, it must pay $50,000. If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $25,000. Teams are not obligated to make a selection and many didn't. 

In all, 16 players were selected in this year's draft. A few teams—the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres—made more than one selection. After the dust settled and a few picks were traded, San Diego ended up with four of the 16 players taken. 

Now that the picks are in, how likely is it that these players will make the big league roster? What's the fate of the likes of Tyler Goeddel, Jabari Blash, Jake Cave and the rest of the Rule 5 draftees? 

In all of those cases, it'll depend on the current roster structure of the team that drafted them. Relief pitchers are more likely to stick, while position players will have a tougher time carving out playing time. 

The Rule 5 draft is a low-risk, high-reward event. We don't yet know what the players taken in this year's draft will develop into, but we can at least dive into their chances of reaching the big leagues with their new clubs.

Atlanta Braves: Evan Rutckyj

2015 Stats (A+/AA): 36 G, 2.63 ERA, 61.2 IP, 82 K, 21 BB, .248 average against 

The Atlanta Braves had one of the worst bullpens in baseball last season, so the club decided to take a flier on Evan Rutckyj with the third pick of the 2015 Rule 5 draft. 

After being taken by the New York Yankees in the 16th round of the 2010 draft, Rutckyj spent time between High-A and Double-A this past season. He logged over 61 innings and posted a 2.63 ERA in the process. He also struck out 82 hitters and walked just 21 in those outings. 

Considering Atlanta's fluid bullpen situation, Rutckyj has a chance to crack the big league roster out of camp. The Braves have four left-handers on the 40-man roster, but none have established themselves as dependable options so far in their careers. 

If Rutckyj impresses in spring training, there's no reason a team focused on evaluating young talent won't give him an opportunity to prove himself at the major league level in 2016.

Chances of Sticking: High

Baltimore Orioles: Joey Rickard

2015 Stats (A+/AA/AAA): .321/.427/.447, 2 HR, 55 RBI, 23 SB, .874 OPS

The Baltimore Orioles have yet to address their outfield needs this winter, so taking a chance on former Tampa Bay outfielder Joey Rickard was worth a Rule 5 pick. 

Rickard is coming off a fine season where he slashed .321/.427/.447. The 24-year-old actually played better as he progressed up the organizational ladder, hitting .322 in Double-A and .360 in Triple-A. 

At 180 pounds, Rickard isn't a drop-and-drive type of hitter. He relies on his speed and a polished approach at the dish. In 2015, he struck out only 75 times and walked 69 times in 396 at-bats. When Rickard did reach base, he swiped 23 bags across three levels. 

Baltimore's outfield situation figures to change before spring training, but Rickard has an opportunity to stick around as the roster stands now. Adam Jones has center field locked down, but Junior Lake, Nolan Remold and Ryan Flaherty are players Rickard can surely beat out if he proves himself this spring. 

Chances of Sticking: High

Cincinnati Reds: Jake Cave

2015 Stats (AA/AAA): .278/.339/.359, 2 HR, 39 RBI, 17 SB, .698 OPS 

Jake Cave doesn't do anything great, but he does everything well. For a Cincinnati Reds team looking to add young, controllable talent for the future, Cave is an intriguing option. 

Cave was rated as the New York Yankees' 16th-best prospect before he was selected in the Rule 5 draft. The 23-year-old slashed .278/.339/.359 last season, while also swiping 17 bases. In 2014, he slashed .294/.351/.414, proving he's been a very consistent player since being drafted in 2011. 

At 200 pounds, there's been a little disappointment that Cave hasn't seen improved power numbers as he's matured. Still, he's a contact guy and a plus runner who can play all three outfield positions. 

Right now, Cincinnati has Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce penciled in spots in its 2016 outfield. If Bruce is dealt this winter, that would give Cave an even better shot to make the roster out of spring training. 

Chances of Sticking: High

Cincinnati Reds: Chris O'Grady

2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 45 G, 3.28 ERA, 57.2 IP, 57 K, 14 BB, .224 average against

The Cincinnati Reds made two selections in the Rule 5 draft, taking left-handed pitcher Chris O'Grady in the second round from the Los Angeles Angels. 

O'Grady has pitched well over the course of the last three seasons. In 2013, he posted a 2.18 ERA between rookie ball and Single-A before following that up with a 3.33 mark in High-A in 2014. Last year, the 25-year-old continued that consistency with a 3.28 mark in 57.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. 

On the flip side, O'Grady doesn't miss many bats. The most strikeouts he's recorded in a season is 81 in 83.2 innings in 2014 in High-A. In today's MLB, it's tough to stick around as a reliever without strikeout stuff.

The Reds struggled to find reliable relief options outside of Aroldis Chapman last season, so snagging O'Grady makes sense. He'll have a chance to stick around, but a lack of velocity will hurt his chances to become a key piece of the Cincinnati bullpen. 

Chances of Sticking: Slim

Los Angeles Angels: Ji-Man Choi

2015 Stats (ROK/AAA): .290/.388/.406, 1 HR, 18 RBI, .793 OPS

Ji-Man Choi seemed poised for big things after an outstanding 2014 season that saw him earn a roster spot for the World Team at the Futures Game. The 24-year-old slashed .282/.386/.403 between Double-A and Triple-A that season. 

But Choi's momentum to the big leagues was halted by a positive drug test that found performance-enhancing drugs in his system in April. He was suspended for 50 games and was eventually let go by the Seattle Mariners. The Baltimore Orioles inked Choi to a minor league deal earlier this offseason, but the Los Angeles Angels swooped in to claim his rights through a Rule 5 selection. 

Choi may have baggage, but he can hit. He's flashed elite plate discipline at every stop in the minor leagues, striking out more than 60 times just once in his career. He also has pop, as he proved when he hit 18 homers in 2013. 

The Angels could use some help offensively, but it'll be extremely difficult Choi to unseat C.J. Cron on the L.A. roster.

Chances of Sticking: Very Slim 

Los Angles Angels: Deolis Guerra

2015 Stats (AAA): 25 G, 1.23 ERA, 36.2 IP, 37 K, 8 BB, .165 average against

Deolis Guerra has been around the minor leagues for a long time. 

The 26-year-old made his debut in 2006 with the New York Mets before joining the Minnesota Twins organization in 2008. Guerra struggled on his way to Triple-A with Minnesota, eventually transitioning from a starter to a reliever. 

Guerra finally put it all together in 2015. In 36.2 Triple-A innings, the right-hander posted a 1.23 ERA and fanned 27 percent of the batters he faced. After a lengthy minor league career, that performance earned him 10 late-season appearances with the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

The Los Angeles Angels used their first-round pick in the Rule 5 draft on Guerra, and he'll have an opportunity to carve out a spot in the L.A. bullpen. It'll be up to Guerra to prove that his 2015 season wasn't an anomaly this spring. 

Chances of Sticking: Slim

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Jones

2015 Stats (A+/AA): 45 G, 4.18 ERA, 51.2 IP, 68 K, 28 BB, .204 average against

The Milwaukee Brewers chose two players in the Rule 5 draft, including right-hander Zack Jones.

Jones posted a 4.18 ERA between High-A and Double-A last season. The 25-year-old didn't see much mound time in 2014, but he did record a 1.85 ERA in 48.2 innings in High-A in 2013. 

At both stops where Jones has logged over 40 innings, he's shown an ability to miss bats. In 2013, he fanned 70 hitters and struck out 68 more in 2015. Jones has held hitters to a .182 average throughout his minor league career, so it's safe to say the stuff is there. 

If Jones can improve his command before spring training—he's walked 73 hitters in 130 career innings—there's no reason the Brewers wouldn't give him an opportunity out of the bullpen in 2016. He has the velocity, but it'll be his command that determines if he sticks in Milwaukee. 

Chances of Sticking: Moderate

Milwaukee Brewers: Colin Walsh

2015 Stats (AA): .302/.447/.470, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 17 SB, .918 OPS

Colin Walsh has continued to make the case that he's a major league-caliber player over the last two seasons. 

After being released by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014, Walsh joined the Oakland A's organization. He went on to post a slash line of .290/.375/.371 that year. The 26-year-old improved those numbers in 2015, slashing .302/.447/.470, hitting 13 homers and stealing 17 bases. 

The toolsy outfielder has always shown an above-average eye at the plate. Walsh has consistently recorded high on-base percentages throughout his career and walked 124 times in 134 games in Double-A this season. 

The Brewers are pretty set in the outfield with Ryan Braun, Khris Davis and top prospect Domingo Santana already on the roster. But if Walsh outplays Shane Peterson in the spring, don't be shocked to see the Brewers break camp with him as their fourth outfielder. 

Chances of Sticking: High

Philadelphia Phillies: Tyler Goeddel

2015 Stats (AA): .279/.350/.433, 12 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB, .783 OPS

Tyler Goeddel was arguably the best player taken in the Rule 5 draft. The Philadelphia Phillies sure think so, as they chose the outfielder with the No. 1 overall pick. 

Goeddel was chosen in the supplemental round in the 2011 draft. He began his career slowly, never hitting above .270 in his first three seasons in the minors. That changed in 2015. Goeddel slashed .279/.350/.433 with 12 homers and 72 RBI. He also stole 28 bases, something he had done regularly in the early days of his career. 

The Phillies are still in a rebuilding stage, so taking a look at Goeddel this season is a wise idea. At 23, he's still young enough to reach his potential over the next few seasons. If 2015 was any indication, he's trending in the right direction. 

The success that former Rule 5 draftee Odubel Herrera had for the Phillies last season certainly improves Goeddel's chances of making the team out of spring training. 

Chances of Sticking: Very High

Philadelphia Phillies: Daniel Stumpf

2015 Stats (AA): 42 G, 3.57 ERA, 70.2 IP, 76 K, 31 BB, .212 average against

The Philadelphia Phillies used their second-round selection on left-handed pitcher Daniel Stumpf. 

Stumpf posted a 3.57 ERA in over 70 innings of work in Double-A last season. The southpaw struck out 76 batters in those outings, while holding hitters to a .212 average. 

The 24-year-old was originally used as starter in the Kansas City Royals organization, but has seen better results as a reliever. The move to the pen has allowed him to ramp up his heater, which has resulted in 25 percent strikeout percentages in each of the last two seasons. 

Being left-handed, Stumpf's value will be determined by how well he handles same-sided hitters. In 2015, he held lefties to a .167 average and whiffed 40. If he continues to dominate left-handed hitters this spring, Stumpf has a legitimate shot at making the club. 

Chances of Sticking: High

San Diego Padres: Jabari Blash

2015 Stats (AA/AAA): .271/.370/.576, 32 HR, 81 RBI, .946 OPS

The San Diego Padres finished the day with four Rule 5 draft picks after two trades. One of those deals involved Jabari Blash, who may be the most intriguing prospect in the entire draft. 

Blash made noise between Double-A and Triple-A in the Seattle Mariners organization. He hit for both average and power, recording a .271 average and mashing 32 homers. Blash was available due to a subpar 2014 season where he hit just .221. He whiffed over 30 percent of the time in Triple-A that season, which diminished the value of his power. 

If Blash would have stayed with the Oakland A's, the team that originally selected him in the Rule 5 draft, he'd have a great chance at making the big league club in 2016.

It's not impossible that we'll see him in a San Diego uniform next season, but the likes of Wil Myers, Matt Kemp. Jon Jay, Melvin Upton Jr. and Rymer Liriano may be too much for Blash to overcome. 

Chances of Sticking: Moderate

San Diego Padres: Josh Martin

2015 Stats (AA): 44 G, 2.27 ERA, 67.1 IP, 80 K, 19 BB, .192 average against 

The San Diego Padres used one of their two selections on right-hander Josh Martin. 

Martin continued the momentum he built in 2014 into 2015. The 25-year-old posted a 2.84 ERA in 66.2 innings pitched in 2014, fanning 69 hitters. Last season, he improved his ERA to a 2.27 mark and whiffed 80 hitters while walking only 19. 

At 6'5", 230 pounds, Martin is an intimidating presence. He's taken advantage of that by holding opposing hitters to a .215 average throughout his minor league career. 

There's always a better chance or relief pitchers sticking than any other position when it comes to Rule 5 selections. If Martin impresses in spring training, expect him to earn a bullpen spot in 2016. 

Chances of Sticking: Very High

San Diego Padres: Luis Perdomo

2015 Stats (A/A+): 6-12, 22 GS, 3.98 ERA, 126.2 IP, 118 K, 37 BB, .273 average against

Luis Perdomo was rated as the 11th-best prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals organization before he was taken with the fourth pick by the Colorado Rockies in the 2015 Rule 5 draft. 

The San Diego Padres liked Perdomo as well, and traded for him shortly after the draft. First, the positives—the right-hander has above-average stuff that profiles as major league caliber. Perdomo sits in the mid-90s with his heater and couples that with a hard breaking ball. Last season, he struck out 118 hitters between Single-A and High-A. 

But it's that lack of experience that could work against Perdomo. He's never thrown a pitch above A-ball, so it's hard to envision him making a seamless jump to any team's starting rotation. 

Drafting Perdomo is a low-cost way of adding a gifted arm, but he'll likely have to take his lumps in the bullpen to begin the season if San Diego is serious about keeping him for the long haul.

Chances of Sticking: Modest

San Diego Padres: Blake Smith

Denis Poroy/Getty Images

AJ Preller and the Padres round up with four Rule 5 selections.

2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 44 G, 2.89 ERA, 64 K, 27 BB, .226 average against

The San Diego Padres used their second selection on another relief pitcher. 

Blake Smith was a member of the Chicago White Sox organization last season. He posted a 2.89 ERA in 44 games between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 64 hitters in the process. In 2014, Smith recorded a 3.82 ERA in 48 games. 

Sure, there's a chance Smith could make San Diego's Opening Day roster, but four Rule 5 selections sticking is highly unlikely. Both Martin and Perdomo have more upside than Smith. It's not that Smith isn't talented, it may just come down to the numbers game. 

Chances of Sticking: Very Slim 

St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Bowman

2015 Stats (AAA): 26 GS, 5.53 ERA, 140 IP, 77 K, 51 BB, .319 average against

Unlike many of the players drafted in the Rule 5 process, Matthew Bowman is coming off the worst season of his career. 

The right-hander posted a 5.53 ERA in 26 starts in Triple-A this season. Bowman saw a significant increase in walks and batting average against. 

Those numbers aren't going to excite St. Louis Cardinals fans, but there's still reason to be optimistic about Bowman's selection. The 24-year-old has enjoyed success in the higher levels of minor league ball, recording a 3.21 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A as recently as 2014. 

With that being said, it's hard to see St. Louis keeping Bowman around as a starter with so many talented arms already on the roster. There's a slight chance he can push for a bullpen spot, but he'll likely move on to another club after spring training in order to continue starting. 

Chances of Sticking: Very Slim 

Toronto Blue Jays: Joe Biagini

2015 Stats (AA): 22 GS, 2.42 ERA, 130.1 IP, 84 K, 34 BB, .228 average against

The Toronto Blue Jays used their Rule 5 selection on right-hander Joseph Biagini. 

Biagini is coming off a wonderful 2014 season. The right-hander posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 starts, holding opposing hitters to a .228 average in the process. 

The 25-year-old's improved performance was out of left field. In 2013, Biagini posted a 5.03 ERA in 20 Single-A starts. His numbers did improve in High-A in 2014, as he recorded a 4.01 ERA. 

The Blue Jays seem to have little use for Biagini next season with Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison vying for rotation spots. It never hurts to add a young pitcher coming off a career year, but it'll be difficult for Biagini to convince the Toronto brass that he's a better option than those six established hurlers. 

Chances of Sticking: Very Slim

All stats courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.