Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB's Hottest 2015 Winter Meetings Buzz
It's the most wonderful time of the year—and I'm not talking about Christmas.
The Hot Stove League is operating at scorching temperatures, with baseball's annual winter meetings providing the setting for some big free-agent signings and even bigger trades. Starlin Castro, Shelby Miller and 2015's No. 1 draft pick, Dansby Swanson, have all switched teams this week.
And that may only be the beginning.
Is what would be a franchise-record contract enough to keep one of baseball's premier sluggers with the team he's found the most success? Have off-field issues made a valuable trade chip worthless? Is there a club brave enough to pay a franchise-altering price for one of the game's premier young arms?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Nobody's Going to Touch Aroldis Chapman
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Allegations of domestic violence—which, according to a police report obtained by Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown and Jeff Passan, involved both a physical altercation and multiple gunshots—brought against Aroldis Chapman have ended any chance Cincinnati had of trading its All-Star closer.
"I know we can’t touch him. Our owner would never go for that. And I’m getting the sense from other teams that they feel the same way," a high-ranking National League executive told USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
While Chapman has denied the allegations through his attorney, no charges are being filed against the 27-year-old and MLB has begun its own investigation, he has already been found guilty in the court of public opinion.
Granted, verdicts in that venue tend to become less of an issue as time passes, and this doesn't signal the end of Chapman's career.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, who had agreed upon a deal that would have sent two prospects to the Reds in exchange for Chapman, have put things on hold, according to ESPN.com's Mark Saxon.
Part of the team's reasoning, per Saxon, is the potential extra year of control the Dodgers would have over Chapman, should MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred suspend him for at least 50 games in 2016, since that would leave him short of the service time needed to reach free agency. But bringing Chapman into a major media market like Los Angeles on the heels of such serious allegations is just about the dumbest decision anyone could make.
"This is bigger than the game of baseball," former Colorado Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd told Nightengale. At some point that will become clear to the Dodgers, and they'll make the right decision—for both the team and the player—to walk away.
Fiction: The Marlins Are Going to Trade Jose Fernandez
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The Miami Marlins do not have to trade staff ace Jose Fernandez today, tomorrow, next week or next month. At some point, yes, Fernandez is going to get moved—all indications are that the Scott Boras client will be testing the free-agent waters when his contract is up after the 2018 season.
But we've yet to reach that point. "He's not available. We haven't made him available. But, it doesn't stop the phone calls from happening," Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
As the Miami Herald's Clark Spencer noted, you can never truly say never. "My strong sense is that the Marlins do not intend to deal Fernandez—at least not now. Or not unless some team is willing to meet the Marlins' pie-in-sky demands for the ace hurler."
He's not kidding when he says "pie-in-the-sky demands," either. Frisaro reported the Los Angeles Dodgers were told it would take a package of Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Julio Urias and two other pieces to pry Fernandez loose.
The Dodgers aren't about to pay such a hefty price, even for three years of a high-end talent like Fernandez. Neither is any other team. The rumors may continue to swirl, but Fernandez isn't going anywhere.
Fact: The Cubs Aren't Done Dealing
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Trading Starlin Castro to the New York Yankees after signing Ben Zobrist—news relayed by Carrie Muskat of MLB.com—might appear to alleviate one of Chicago's roster logjams, but in reality it didn't. While Zobrist's versatility gives the Cubs more options, the fact remains that the team still has holes to fill—and too many players for a limited number of spots.
If we assume Zobrist is the team's starting second baseman, that pushes Javier Baez into a utility role. If he's starting in an outfield corner, that leaves either Kyle Schwarber or Jorge Soler without a place to play.
Of the three, Schwarber seems the least likely to be dealt, as trade winds have swirled around both Baez and Soler in recent weeks.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted that the Cubs and Rays have discussed a swap that would send Baez to Tampa Bay for pitching, adding that Alex Cobb may be Chicago's primary target, along with one of the team's late-inning relievers—Brad Boxberger or Jake McGee.
Soler's name came up in talks with Atlanta for Shelby Miller, per the Chicago Sun-Times' Gordon Wittenmyer. While Miller is no longer an option, having been traded to Arizona, Soler could find himself back in play as a trade chip for another piece.
Whether it's to bolster the pitching staff and/or fill the void in center field, it would be shocking if the Cubs didn't at least lay the groundwork for—if not swing another deal—before departing the winter meetings.
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Fiction: Baltimore Has Offered Enough to Keep Chris Davis
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Baltimore has offered first baseman Chris Davis a seven-year deal worth "about" $150 million, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com
That would represent the largest contract in franchise history by a wide margin, dwarfing the six-year, $85.5 million extension Adam Jones signed in 2012. But is it enough to keep one of the game's premier sluggers in orange and black?
The market for hitters is only now beginning to develop, and Davis, who has hit more home runs than any other player since the start of the 2012 season, isn't going to accept the first offer he receives.
That he's represented by Scott Boras only complicates matters, as the super agent has no qualms about dragging out a player's free agency until the last possible minute before a new deal is struck.
With a number of teams potentially in play for Davis—a list that could include the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, per Olney—Davis' price could quickly escalate to a number the Orioles simply aren't comfortable matching.
So while it's a fine opening bid, it's not going to be enough to get the job done.
Fact: The Winter Meetings Will End Without a High-Profile Outfielder Signing
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Considering how many teams are in need of outfield help, it's been a bit surprising to see how slowly the market for the top free-agent outfielders available—Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton—has been.
But things look like they're finally starting to pick up.
Rival evaluators told ESPN's Buster Olney they believe San Francisco is the favorite to land Gordon, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post listed the Giants, along with a trio of American League teams—Detroit, Kansas City and Los Angeles—as the most serious suitors for Cespedes.
In a series of tweets, Fox Sports' Jon Morosi listed the Angels, Cubs and Giants as the most recent teams in on Heyward. Morosi added the Angels have had an "ongoing conversation" with Upton's representatives.
Despite all this action, it'd be premature to expect any of these outfielders to sign a deal before the winter meetings wrap up Thursday, Dec. 10.
Some of them may be waiting to see what happens with Chris Davis, who, despite primarily being a first baseman, can also play in a corner outfield spot. Others may be waiting to see if other teams jump into the mix after first exploring trade options, which would potentially increase their earning power.
Could one (or more) of these outfielders sign before Christmas? Sure. But odds are that Christmas isn't coming early this year.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk Winter Meetings and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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