MLB Trade Ideas Based on 2015 Winter Meetings News, Rumors and Speculation
Baseball's winter meetings have gotten off to a rousing start, with trades—some completed, some falling apart—free agent signings and enough rumor and speculation to fill Dodger Stadium.
Nobody seems to know whether Miami's Jose Fernandez is actually available in a trade or not. The Marlins say he's not, via the Miami Herald's Clark Spencer, while multiple well-known and highly respected sources, including ESPN's Jayson Stark and CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, have heard otherwise.
One thing is for sure: If and when Miami does shop Fernandez, its asking price for a pitcher that will pitch on an innings limit in 2016 and is a stone cold lock to test free agency in three years will be outrageous. So we're not even going to attempt to piece together a hypothetical Fernandez trade this week, since it appears to be an effort in futility.
That said, there's plenty for us to sink our teeth into.
From All-Star closers to All-Star catchers; young, up-and-coming stars to youngsters that have been around for a few years, some intriguing, impactful players could be switching teams in the not-so-distant future.
Keep in mind these proposed deals are only ideas and pure speculation. Unless otherwise noted, there's no indication any of them has actually been discussed.
Javier Baez Gets Traded to the Rays
1 of 5
Chicago Gets: RHP Alex Cobb and LHP Jake McGee
Tampa Bay Gets: IF Javier Baez
The Rumor
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the Cubs and Rays have discussed a trade that would send Javier Baez to Tampa Bay for pitching, adding that Alex Cobb may be Chicago's primary target.
Why It Works for the Cubs
It may seem odd for the Cubs to be focused on a pitcher that missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but the 28-year-old Cobb comes with two years of team control and was establishing himself as one of the better young starters in the game before the injury.
Over parts of four major league seasons, Cobb has pitched to a 3.21 ERA (3.43 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP, posting ratios of 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over nearly 500 innings of work.
McGee, 29, was one of Joe Maddon's most trusted relievers during his time with the Rays and has proven to be effective as either a setup man or a closer. He's averaged more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings of work over his six-year career, pitching to a 2.77 ERA (2.58 FIP) and 1.02 WHIP.
Why It Works for the Rays
A shortstop by trade, Baez can play short, second base and third base, and he's certainly got the athleticism and power potential to stick in an outfield corner if that's what the Rays ultimately decide to do.
While he's not a finished product at the plate and is always going to strike out more than anyone likes, his power is real and he could provide some much needed protection for Evan Longoria in the middle of Tampa Bay's lineup.
Ken Giles Gets Traded to Houston
2 of 5
Houston Gets: RHP Ken Giles
Philadelphia Gets: RHP Michael Feliz, 1B A.J. Reed and OF Kyle Tucker
The Rumor
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports that multiple teams have expressed interest in Philadelphia closer Ken Giles, a rumor that was confirmed by Phillies general manager Matt Klentak. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported Houston's interest in Giles last week.
Why It Works for the Astros
Houston lands the long-term closer it needs in Giles, who is not yet arbitration eligible and under team control through 2020. The 25-year-old has gotten off to a Craig Kimbrel-like start to his career, pitching to a 1.56 ERA (1.82 FIP) and 1.04 WHIP with 151 strikeouts over 115.2 innings of work.
His arrival allows the Astros to shift Luke Gregerson back into a setup role, where he's been far more successful over the course of his career than he has been in the ninth inning.
Why It Works for the Phillies
A rebuilding club doesn't need an elite closer—it needs multiple pieces to build around. The Phillies get that in this deal, with potential long-term solutions in the rotation, the outfield and at first base.
Feliz, 22, has all the makings of a frontline starter and brings a three-pitch arsenal to the table. He's not quite on the same level as Lance McCullers or Vincent Velazquez, whom Crasnick says the team inquired about earlier, but he's still a quality arm with significant upside.
Reed, 22, crushed minor league pitching to the tune of a .340/.432/.612 triple-slash line with 34 home runs and 127 RBI over 135 games, reaching Double-A in his first full professional season. A future fixture in the middle of the Phillies lineup, Reed could break camp with the club next season.
Still a teenager, the 18-year-old Tucker is a few years away from making an impact in the big leagues but he might ultimately be the best player of the three Philadelphia lands in this deal. He's already shown the ability to make consistent hard contact, and as he fills out his 6'4" frame, the power will come. He has the arm to play right field, but his bat works in either outfield corner.
Jonathan Lucroy Gets Traded to the Rangers
3 of 5
Milwaukee Gets: OF Lewis Brinson, IF/OF Ryan Cordell, 2B Travis Demeritte and RHP Luis Ortiz
Texas Gets: C Jonathan Lucroy
The Rumor
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweets that Milwaukee "is listening" on catcher Jonathan Lucroy, a player that Texas "covets," sources tell the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt.
Why It Works for the Brewers
A rebuilding Milwaukee club adds four more youngsters to its talent pool, a package led by a pair of youngsters on MLB.com's list of baseball's top 100 prospects in Brinson (No. 65) and Ortiz (No. 86).
Brinson continued to open eyes in the Arizona Fall League after a breakout regular season, drawing high praise from former B/R scribe (and current MLB.com analyst) Mike Rosenbaum:
"During that time, (Brinson) was arguably the best player on the field in terms of his athleticism, tools and overall capacity to impact a game."
Ortiz, 20, is still years away from the majors but he has an easy, repeatable delivery and the stuff to develop into a frontline starter. Selected 30th overall in the 2014 draft, Ortiz has pitched to a 1.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 70.1 professional innings, walking 15 and striking out 65.
Few prospects are as versatile as the 23-year-old Cordell, who logged time at all three outfield spots, both infield corners and shortstop during the regular season. With five average-or-better tools, Cordell could become Milwaukee's future at third base—or its version of Ben Zobrist, moving where needed.
A converted shortstop, Demeritte is a risky player that oozes potential. He led the low Class A South Atlantic League with 25 homers as a 19-year-old in 2014, but hit only .211 and struck out 171 times. He'll also serve an 80-game suspension for PEDs in 2015. Only 21, he still has considerable upside.
Why It Works for the Rangers
With all due respect to Rod Barajas, Lucroy immediately becomes the best catcher the Rangers have had since Ivan Rodriguez last suited up for the club in 2002.
An outstanding defender, the 29-year-old got off to a slow start in 2015, missing more than a month with a broken toe, but hit .282 with 29 extra-base hits and a .762 OPS from the time he returned to action on June 1 through the end of the regular season.
Due a total of $9.5 million through 2017, Lucroy is one of baseball's biggest bargains.
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Shelby Miller Gets Traded to the Diamondbacks
4 of 5
Arizona Gets: RHP Shelby Miller
Atlanta Gets: RHP Aaron Blair, 2B/3B Brandon Drury and OF Ender Inciarte
The Rumor
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that Atlanta was working "late into the night" on a Miller deal, while USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that Arizona is hopeful of landing him.
Why It Works for the Braves
Atlanta continues to add to its impressive stockpile of young arms while plugging holes at either second base or third base and in the outfield. All three of the players the Braves land in this deal offer immediate help.
Blair, 23, was impressive across the upper levels of Arizona's minor league system in 2015, going 13-5 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 160 innings, fanning 120 batters in the process. With a floor of a reliable, innings-eating mid-rotation starter, Blair is a pretty safe bet to find success in the big leagues.
Drury, 23, has the arm strength and footwork to stick at third base, but is also solid enough at second base to give the Braves options. His bat will play at either position, with a quick swing that allows him to drive the ball to all fields and he generates more power than some expect.
Inciarte, 25, is under team control through 2020, and can play all three outfield positions well, giving the Braves some flexibility.A premier defender, Inciarte is no slouch at the plate either, posting a .292/.329/.386 triple-slash line over his two-year career.
Why It Works for the Diamondbacks
Miller isn't an ace and probably never will be, but with Zack Greinke leading the rotation, he doesn't have to fill that role in Arizona. What he is, though, is a young, controllable arm that continues to improve, effectively using his heavy fastball-cutter mix to keep batters off balance.
Arizona also clears a path for Socrates Brito, Peter O'Brien or Yasmany Tomas to get regular playing time in the outfield, joining David Peralta and A.J. Pollock. While none have the defensive prowess of Inciarte, all three could be as good—if not better—offensively.
Andrew Miller Gets Traded to the Dodgers
5 of 5
Los Angeles Gets: RHP Andrew Miller
New York Gets: RHP Jose De Leon, 2B Jose Peraza and RHP Jacob Rhame
The Rumor
If it's not dead, Los Angeles' deal for Aroldis Chapman is, at best, on shaky ground after domestic violence issues involving the closer were revealed, leading Cincinnati to essentially pull him off the market, according to Reds President of Baseball Operations Walt Jocketty (per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer). ESPN's Buster Olney reported the Dodgers' interest in Miller last offseason before he signed with the Yankees.
Why It Works for the Dodgers
In many ways Miller may be an even better fit in Los Angeles than Chapman would have been. Not only is he signed for three years at a reasonable $27 million, but his history of success as a setup man could help the Dodgers avoid a potentially awkward situation with All-Star closer Kenley Jansen.
Whether used in the eighth or ninth inning, adding a legitimate stud like Miller to the back-end of the bullpen is never a bad thing.
Why It Works for the Yankees
With Dellin Betances ready to take over in the ninth inning, Miller is expendable, and the chance to add a trio of youngsters that not only have upside, but are nearly ready to contribute in the big leagues is too tempting for the Yankees to pass up.
De Leon, 23, has the makings of a potential front-of-the-rotation arm. He's got a pair of legitimate strikeout pitches in his mid-90s fastball and low-80s slider and a quickly improving changeup that projects to be another above-average offering.
While it means absolutely nothing in terms of his major league projection, it's worth noting that De Leon broke a record set by Clayton Kershaw in 2007 for most strikeouts in a game, fanning 14 for the Single-A Great Lakes Loons in 2014.
New York's interest in Peraza, 21, dates back to the beginning of last season (per George A. King of the New York Post) when he was still a member of Atlanta's organization. A superb fielder with a quick, short swing, Peraza doesn't offer much in terms of power but makes up for it with big-time speed, having gone 210-for-259 in stolen base attempts over parts of five minor league seasons.
Rhame, 22, is a power arm out of the bullpen that may not need much more minor league seasoning. Armed with a four-seam fastball that sits in the mid-to-high 90s and touches triple digits, a low-90s two-seam fastball with late movement and a mid-80s slider, he could essentially replace Miller down the road.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk Winter Meetings and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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