Music City Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Louisville vs. Texas A&M

The ACC and SEC will collide when Louisville take on Texas A&M in Nashville for the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl. 

Louisville split its two games against SEC opponents this season. The Cardinals fell to Auburn in the season opener before dropping rival Kentucky to close out the regular season at 7-5. The team also won five of its last six games. Head coach Bobby Petrino has experience coaching against SEC teams from his time at Arkansas, and his Louisville team is certainly talented enough to pull out a win in this matchup. 

Kevin Sumlin’s seat is possibly starting to get warm as the head coach at Texas A&M. The Aggies went through another underwhelming season as quarterback issues again plagued the team. After a 5-0 start, Texas A&M stumbled to lose four of its last seven games. However, the Aggies are 3-0 in bowl games under Sumlin.  

Louisville and Texas A&M have not played since 1994, but the Aggies are 3-0 all time in the series. 

Here is a look at how these teams compare to each other.

Date: Wednesday, Dec. 30 

Time: 7 p.m. ET 

Place: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee 

TV: ESPN

Tale of the Tape

As you can see above, Texas A&M possess a more potent offense when all the pieces are working correctly. It also is the superior team in the red zone when compared to Louisville's defense, which is a key weakness the Aggies will need to take advantage of.

Louisville have the better red-zone percentage, which will play an impactful role in this game as each team looks to convert such opportunities into points. 

However, Louisville is stronger on defense with its 14th-ranked unit compared to Texas A&M at 42nd. Which unit will win out? Louisville looks better overall as of late, so it is the safe bet even though the Aggies could explode for points at any time.

Keys to Victory for Louisville

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Create a Consistent Pass Rush

Former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields may not be seriously lighting it up with his numbers, but he and Sheldon Rankins are making quite an impact for Louisville.

With Texas A&M being a pass-first offense, getting pressure on the quarterback will be a must, regardless of who is behind center for the Aggies. Louisville holds an athletic advantage on the edge, so expect a healthy amount of sacks and hurries from the Cardinals. 

Utilize Lamar Jackson’s Mobility

The development of freshman quarterback Lamar Jackson has the future looking very bright for Louisville. Against an athletic front like Texas A&M, it will be crucial to get Jackson moving out of the pocket often to keep the defense on its toes.

In addition, mixing in quarterback draws and options take total advantage of Jackson’s best attributes. Texas A&M have not faced a dual-threat quarterback like Jackson, so Louisville could end up with some big plays as a result.

Keys to Victory for Texas A&M

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Who Will Play Quarterback?

Sumlin has flipped between sophomore Kyle Allen and freshman Kyler Murray throughout the season. Both experienced struggles and success in 2015, but the uncertainty it created on offense can be seen in the Aggies’ results.

Against Louisville, Murray should get the majority of the snaps. The Cardinals possess a quick pass rush and secondary, so using Murray in a more run-focused approach will allow Texas A&M to control the ball while creating more space for its tremendous receivers to make big plays.

Allen started as of late, but Murray is a better matchup against the Louisville pass rush than the more stationary Allen, even with the turnover concerns of Murray. 

Contain Jackson

Jackson vastly improved as a quarterback as the season progressed, but he is still a much larger threat running than throwing. Thus, the priority for defensive ends Myles Garrett and DaeShon Hall will be to keep Jackson in the pocket and make him beat the Aggies through the air.

Texas A&M has the talent to accomplish this, but Jackson is the quickest quarterback it has faced, so expect triumphs and fails throughout in this aspect of the game. 

Spread the Ball Around

While Texas A&M’s quarterback situation is shaky, its receivers are among the best in college football. In order to establish some rhythm and big-play potential, the Aggies need to get the ball in the hands of Christian Kirk, Speedy Noil, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones in any way possible. Louisville is talented, but it lacks depth in the secondary, so look for Sumlin to take advantage.

Players to Watch for Louisville

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Jackson

As the quarterback and most dangerous offensive player, Jackson’s play will likely decide if Louisville can pull out a victory. His quickness and strong arm make Jackson one of college football’s most exciting young players.

If he can consistently make accurate throws, a struggle given his 56 percent completion rate and eight interceptions, Louisville will be in a great position for success. After some extra time to prepare for the Aggie defense, Jackson should have all he needs to break out in this bowl.

Brandon Radcliffe

Although Jackson led his team in rushing this season with 734 yards, he cannot be expected to be Louisville’s primary rusher against defensive coordinator John Chavis’ Texas A&M defense.

Look for Radcliffe, the team’s second leading rusher with 587 yards and seven scores, to be featured heavily. Louisville will need another player to take the pressure off of Jackson, and Radcliffe proved he can be dependable with multiple-touchdown performances against Auburn and Kentucky.

Trumaine Washington

Texas A&M’s strength is the explosiveness of its receivers. Sophomore Cornerback Trumaine Washington leads Louisville with four interceptions, and he will be tasked with shutting down dangerous threats like Kirk and Reynolds, two of the better receivers in college football. 

If Texas A&M goes with Murray at quarterback, Louisville will bring down its safeties and leave Washington on an island, which means any mistake by the corner will lead to a huge play. Keep an eye on Washington and the rest of the Louisville secondary in a tough matchup with the Aggies.

Players to Watch for Texas A&M

Garrett

Garrett followed up and exceptional freshman season to establish himself as one of the SEC’s premier defensive players in 2015. He led the Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss as he caused absolute havoc off the edge.

Expect him to make a living in the backfield against a suspect Louisville offensive line. However, he will need to contain the edge to keep Jackson in the pocket or else his sack and negative play production could decrease. 

Kirk

Kirk entered the 2015 season as one of the freshman to watch in college football and he did not disappoint. He led Texas A&M in all major receiving categories with 70 catches for 925 yards and six touchdowns, which are solid numbers despite the turmoil at quarterback.

As is evidenced above, he is also electric in the return game. This could be key if Texas A&M is struggling to find offense. Kirk will leave his prints on this game in some way, he is too good not to. Watch him play now as he develops into one the nation’s elite players in a year or two. 

Shaan Washington

The top objective for Texas A&M’s defense will be neutralizing the dual-threat ability of Jackson. That task will likely fall to Shaan Washington, the Aggies’ best inside linebacker. The junior has been a key contributor since his freshman season, and he is constantly around the ball with his range and instincts. Washington’s ability to shadow Jackson will have a decisive impact on this game, and it should be an excellent matchup.

What They're Saying

David Stephenson/Associated Press

Petrino feels good about his team heading into a tough contest with a more talent-laden Aggies team, per a Louisville press release.

"I think this is tremendous match-up for us and a great challenge for our football team," Petrino said. "I'm happy for fans that can make the short trip to Nashville and enjoy the bowl festivities."

Sumlin noted the chance for his program to make history with another bowl victory'

"It's a huge opportunity for our program to do something that we've never done before in 120 seasons of football and that's to win five straight bowl games," Sumlin said in a school press release.

Many, including ESPN, predicted such a matchup in the Music City Bowl, and it looks to be an intriguing contest.

Brandon Wheeland of the Dallas Morning News cited that the bowl officials targeted Texas A&M due to its recent familiarity with the Nashville-area. 

"

Music City Bowl officials were impressed with the traveling ability of A&M fans, and although it already made the journey to Nashville earlier in the year to take on Vanderbilt, it still provides for more of a travel destination than what virtually amounts to the Aggies' backyard," Wheeland said.

"

Prediction

David Stephenson/Associated Press

Jackson (left).

Texas A&M holds an advantage with the depth of its personnel, but Louisville appears to be the more stable team at the moment. 

Jackson has the ability to create his own offense, which could be a tough adjustment for Texas A&M. It will be interesting to see who gets the better of the coaching battle over the three-week layoff with Jackson having the offensive mind of Petrino at his disposal against Chavis. The edge here goes to Petrino, who averaged nearly 30 points per game against Chavis’ LSU defenses in three games at Arkansas. 

The real deciding factor in this game will be the quarterback play of Texas A&M. When the signal-caller, whether it be Allen or Murray, is good, it results in wins over teams like Arizona State, Arkansas and Mississippi State. When it is poor, the team ends up losing to Auburn. 

Recent events seem to point to Allen getting the nod quarterback, but either player has not shown much of late to receive any real confidence. 

Texas A&M have also struggled against strong pass rushing teams like Alabama, LSU and arguably even Auburn. Louisville does not pose quite the same threat, but it will certainly cause some issues with Fields and friends. 

Louisville also have the benefit of being roughly nine hours closer in driving distance to Nashville than Texas A&M. This should help the Cardinals match the Aggie fan base and possibly create a slight advantage in the rooting interests of the stadium. 

Texas A&M may have better players, but Louisville is trending in the right direction and it presents a tough matchup with the mobility of Jackson and the tenacity of its pass rush. It will be tight, sometimes ugly game, but Jackson will find a way to make a play late to complete the upset and announce himself to the rest of college football.

Louisville Wins 23-20

Individual statistics courtesy of ESPN.com

Coaching and team records courtesy of Sports-Reference.com