Birmingham Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Auburn vs. Memphis
The Birmingham Bowl is set to take place between the Auburn Tigers (6-6) of the SEC and the Memphis Tigers (9-3) of the American Athletic Conference. The game will be played on December 30 at 11 a.m. inside historic Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama.
At first glance, the Birmingham Bowl presents a matchup of two teams who will look to end 2015 on a positive note after struggling down the stretch of the season. Memphis began 2015 with an 8-0 start that included a 37-24 win over the then-No.13 Ole Miss Rebels. The Tigers led the surprisingly strong AAC and looked like a potential dark horse for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
That's when things went downhill for Justin Fuente's squad. Memphis lost three straight games to Navy, Temple and Houston before closing out the regular season with a 63-0 victory over lowly SMU.
For Auburn, the entire 2015 season has been marred by disappointment. The Tigers were picked to win the SEC at SEC media days in July and were also considered early contenders for the CFP and the national championship.
However, those expectations never materialized into reality for Gus Malzahn and his team. Auburn finished with a 2-6 record in conference play, good enough for last place in the SEC West. Despite the disappointing results, the Tigers did just enough to make themselves bowl-eligible.
This year will mark the fourth consecutive meeting between the SEC and the AAC in the Birmingham Bowl. The SEC has won each of the prior three matchups.
Keys to Victory for Auburn
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Run the Football
The Auburn offense has come up well short of what we've come to expect from a Malzahn offense in terms of production. The Tigers rank 10th in the SEC in total offense, averaging 367 yards per game. Between the rotation at quarterback between Sean White and Jeremy Johnson and the mid-season dismissal of top receiver Duke Williams, the Auburn passing game has never really found its footing this season. When Auburn has been able to move the ball effectively, it has been courtesy of the Tigers rushing attack.
Auburn has averaged 191 yards on the ground this season. Peyton Barber has been the primary back for most of the season, rushing for 976 yards, but junior college transfer Jovon Robinson has come on strong despite only playing in seven games this season, running for 513 yards on 5.7 yards per carry.
The Memphis defense has been fairly stout against the run this year, ranking 31st in the country in rushing defense. But with a passing game that can't be relied on, Auburn will have to produce yards and first downs on the ground in order to score enough points to win this game.
Pressure Paxton Lynch
Will Muschamp was expected by some to transform this Auburn defense in his first year as defensive coordinator. That hasn't happened and the Tigers have been mediocre on defense at best. One of the deficiencies of the Auburn defense has been the lack of a consistent pass rush. The Tigers are tied with Kentucky at the bottom of the SEC in the sack column, registering only 17 this season.
Luckily for the Tigers, the SEC hasn't exactly been known for it's quarterback play this season, but this Memphis team certainly is.
Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch has been one of the most prolific passers in the country this season, throwing for 3,670 yards and 28 touchdowns against only three interceptions. If Lynch is given time to sit in the pocket and go through progressions he could have a field day against the Auburn defense. It will be crucial for guys like Carl Lawson, Montravius Adams and Byron Cowart to make Lynch's life as tough as possible and perhaps force a few turnovers as well.
Keys to Victory for Memphis
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Establish a Running Game
The Tigers have featured a pass-heavy attack led by Lynch for most of the season. While that attack was successful through the first half of the year, it became clear in the losses to Navy and Temple that the Tigers one-dimensional offense had been figured out and wasn't enough to carry them to victories against the quality teams on the back end of the regular season schedule.
Establishing a run threat early will prevent Auburn from being able to pin its ears back and come after Lynch time and time again.
When Memphis has run the ball this season, the Tigers have taken a "by-committee" approach. Five different ball carriers have received 50 or more carries for Memphis this season, led by Doroland Dorceus, who has carried the rock 144 times for 613 yards this year. The Memphis offense is already potent as it is, but the addition of some balance would go a long way in putting up points in Birmingham.
Clean up the Penalties
Memphis has been one of the most penalized teams in the country this season, ranking 126th out of 128 teams in total penalty yardage. Next to turnovers, penalties are probably the most egregious self-inflicted wounds and an easy way to give up unnecessary yards to the opponent. Not coincidentally, Memphis was the more penalized team in each of its three losses this season, including eight penalties for 79 yards in a 31-12 loss to Temple.
As the expected betting favorite in this game, penalties and other mistakes are one thing that could easily open up the door for Auburn to pull off an upset in this game. Discipline will be key for the Tigers on both sides of the ball.
Key Players for Auburn
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Running Back Jovon Robinson
As previously mentioned, the Auburn offense has been most effective this season when the Tigers have been able to run the ball effectively. Over the final half of the season, Robinson took over the role of feature back in the Auburn offense, rushing for more than 90 yards in four of Auburn's final five regular-season games.
For example, in Auburn's most impressive victory this season against Texas A&M, the Tigers racked up 311 yards on the ground, 159 of which came from Robinson. With the passing game constantly proving futile, Auburn has to find a way to control this game from a physical standpoint and dominate the line of scrimmage on offense to consistently move the ball and put up points.
The bulk of that responsibility falls on the Auburn offensive line and the running ability of Robinson.
Defensive End Carl Lawson
After missing all of 2014 and half of 2015 with injuries, Carl Lawson has understandably showed some rust since returning against Ole Miss midseason. With more than a month to prepare and get completely healthy, we may see the Lawson that made a name for himself by pressuring quarterbacks as a true freshman. Even with the injuries, Lawson is still the best pure talent on this Auburn defense, which is why he is expected by some to declare early for the NFL draft, despite not seeing much of the field in the last two seasons.
If this is Lawson's last game in an Auburn uniform, he'll have the chance to improve his draft stock by getting after a projected high-draft pick in Lynch.
Cornerback Carlton Davis
As a true freshman, Carlton Davis has already established himself as one of the leaders of the Auburn secondary. Davis leads the team with three interceptions and also ranks third with eight pass breakups. The entire Auburn secondary will have to step up to limit Lynch and Co. through the air, and Davis is one of several cornerbacks who should see time covering lead receiver Mose Frazier.
Despite the shortcomings of the defense this season, Auburn fans should be excited to watch Davis develop over the next two or three years and anyone watching this game will get a glimpse at a rising star in the SEC.
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Key Players for Memphis
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Quarterback Paxton Lynch
No duh, right? Lynch has been the unquestioned leader of this Memphis team from day one and has never disappointed in that role. Towering over defenders at 6'7", Lynch has picked apart secondaries all year to the tune of nearly 3,600 passing yards and nearly 30 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Everything Memphis does on offense is a result of Lynch's passing ability and leadership.
From an individual standpoint, Lynch is undoubtedly the main attraction in this game and anyone who hasn't watched him play this year should be sure to tune in.
It will almost certainly be the final game of Lynch's collegiate career, and he is likely to be the first quarterback taken off the board in the 2016 NFL draft. The guy is a truly special talent and he alone makes this game worth watching.
Linebacker Leonard Pegues
Just as Lynch has been the leader of the Memphis offense, Leonard Pegues has been the man on the defensive side of the ball for the Tigers. In his senior season, Pegues has led Memphis in both total tackles and tackles for loss. At only 5'11", Pegues may seem undersized, but that doesn't stop him from flying around the field and making plays from his outside linebacker position.
Pegues is the anchor of this Memphis defensive unit and will likely spend most of his day crowding the line of scrimmage to limit Auburn's running backs and continue to make plays in the backfield.
What They're Saying
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The matchup between Memphis vs. Auburn isn't one that will create too much excitement off the bat compared to other matchups, and that's understandable given the way both teams closed the regular season. There also isn't much historical significance behind a matchup of these two teams or their conferences.
Auburn basketball legend Charles Barkley, never one to shy away from a microphone, has already expressed his displeasure with his alma mater playing a bowl game in his own back yard.
"Just to make it feel like a real bowl, I'm going to stay at a hotel," Barkley said on WJOX-FM's The RoundTable, per Al.com's Brandon Marcello. "I'm not gonna stay at my house, that would be too humiliating. I'm gonna get me a hotel in Birmingham to help the economy because if you can drive to your bowl game from your house, it's not a good thing."
Malzahn, however, is excited for the opportunity his squad has to close out 2015 with a win against a quality Memphis team.
“We look forward to playing a very good Memphis team in the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 30,” Malzahn said, per 247 Sports' Ryan Black. “We have a tremendous fan base in Birmingham and we are excited to play in front of them. With a large number of our team from the state of Alabama, it will also be a great opportunity for those players to compete before their family and friends.”
Darrell Dickey, who will be coaching Memphis in place of Justin Fuente, echoed Malzahn's sentiment in a press release by the Memphis athletic department.
"We are excited to play in the great city of Birmingham. The game presents an opportunity for Tiger Nation to travel a relatively short distance and support Memphis Football," said Dickey. "The game will provide our student-athletes a fantastic bowl opportunity during the holidays. We look forward to playing in historic Legion Field on December 30th."
Prediction
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Because this is a game that neither team necessarily wanted or hoped to be in, the winner may ultimately be decided by which team is able to prepare with the most focus and intensity over the next few weeks. That won't be easy for either team as both are losing primary members of the coaching staff.
Fuente will not be coaching for Memphis after accepting the head coaching position at Virginia Tech, and it remains to be seen if defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will remain on the sideline for Auburn after reportedly accepting the head coaching job at South Carolina, per ESPN.
Auburn certainly has home-field advantage with the game being played in Auburn. However, Lynch and the Memphis offense should be able to put up points against this Auburn defense, even without Fuente at the helm. The Auburn offense gives the Tigers no chance in an even remotely high-scoring game and if the Auburn defense gives up points, it's tough to see how that offense can do enough to stay in the game.
Memphis wins behind an MVP performance from Lynch.
Final Score: Memphis 27, Auburn 21
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