Surprise Moves We Could See at the 2015 MLB Winter Meetings
Baseball's winter meetings officially kicked off Monday in Nashville, Tennessee, bringing with them the usual expectations of free agent signings, trades and the vast majority of rumor and speculation ultimately going nowhere.
But sometimes, the rumors that seem so far-fetched actually do become reality, while other moves, on rare occasions, are announced without a whisper of them ever actually making the rumor mill rounds. Those are the kind of potential moves we'll focus on here: the out-of-nowhere and highly unlikely.
From Gold Glove outfielders to Cy Young Award-contending starters and former MVP candidates, these moves would not only surprise the baseball universe, but change the outlooks of the teams involved, both in 2016 and beyond.
Hanley Ramirez Gets Traded
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There was an audible chuckle from the baseball universe when news broke last month, courtesy of Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, that Boston was trying to trade Hanley Ramirez. Due $66 million through 2018—and with a $22 million vesting option for 2019—Ramirez looks to be an immovable object.
But what if he's not?
Clearly, the Red Sox are going to have to pick up a significant chunk of that money to get anyone interested. Let's call it $40 million. All of a sudden, you're looking at a three-year, $26 million deal for Ramirez—or four years and $48 million if you believe he'll stay healthy enough to trigger the option year.
That's an annual average value (AAV) of between $9 million and $12 million, a relative bargain for a player of Ramirez's caliber. Lest we forget, he proved he can still be an offensive force in April, when he hit .293/.341/.659 with 10 home runs and 22 RBI over 82 at-bats.
Had he not injured his left shoulder on May 4, maybe he would have continued swinging a hot bat.
For a team in need of offense but unwilling or unable to meet the asking prices of the free agent market's biggest bats, Ramirez could be a cheaper, albeit riskier, solution.
Toronto Trades Kevin Pillar
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Kevin Pillar broke out in a big way last season, emerging as one of baseball's premier defensive outfielders while flashing the combination of power and speed that teams covet, hitting .278 with 45 extra-base hits (12 home runs) and 25 stolen bases in 29 attempts.
His play, coupled with his age (26) and that he's under team control for five years makes Pillar Toronto's most intriguing and valuable trade chip. On a team that's deep in outfielders, he's a chip the Blue Jays may look to cash in at the winter meetings.
A package built around Pillar could bring back the arms the Blue Jays need in both the bullpen and rotation.
Johnny Cueto Signs a One-Year Deal
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A week ago, the idea that Johnny Cueto should sign a one-year deal would have gotten you laughed out of the room. Now? It might be the only sensible move for the 29-year-old ace.
For the deal Cueto thought awaited him after turning down a reported six-year, $120 million offer from Arizona (per MLB.com's Steve Gilbert) may never materialize.
Nearly every team with the kind of money Cueto was hoping for has gone elsewhere for rotation help, with Arizona, Boston, Detroit and San Francisco all investing more than $90 million in a free agent starter, while Chicago and Los Angeles opted for less costly second-and-third-tier arms.
While many of those teams are still searching for another starter, it's far-fetched to believe any of them are going to beat Arizona's initial offer to Cueto, especially with multiple, less expensive options still available via both free agency and trade.
Cueto's best bet may be to bet on himself. Take a one-year deal, re-establish his value as a dominant, front-of-the-rotation arm and hit the open market again after the 2016 season, when it'd be him and Stephen Strasburg standing alone as the only true front-of-the-rotation arms available via free agency.
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San Diego Finds a Taker for James Shields...and Pays None of His Contract
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James Shields' first season with the San Diego Padres wasn't great by any stretch, with the veteran posting a 3.91 ERA (4.45 FIP) while walking more batters (81, 3.6 BB/9) than he has at any other point in his 10-year career.
The scouting report Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal has gotten from other executives—that "Shields' velocity and stuff is in decline"—may very well be true. What's not in dispute, however, is the fact that Shields is an innings-eating workhorse, eclipsing the 200-inning mark for nine consecutive seasons.
And while his numbers in San Diego weren't great, he still knows how to make batters swing-and-miss, striking out 216 batters, the same total posted by Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco and Houston's Dallas Keuchel, winner of the American League Cy Young Award.
That's certainly part of the reason Rosenthal hears the Padres believe they can move Shields without picking up any of the $65 million left on his contract, which runs through 2018. It may be improbable, especially with Shields having an opt-out available to him after the 2017 season.
But, it's not impossible. If the Padres are willing to take back a perceived bad contract in the deal, one that belonged to a player they believe can plug a hole on their roster, San Diego might not have to pick up a single cent of the money left on Shields' contract.
Colorado Trades an Outfielder
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Colorado remains "open-minded" about trading one of its outfielders—Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson or Carlos Gonzalez—at the winter meetings, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. Translation: The Rockies will think about thinking about it, should another team call with an offer.
We've been hearing the same thing, more or less, for years, the chatter typically surrounding Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, the latter of which was finally moved at last season's trade deadline.
But finding an offer that's to Colorado's liking won't be so easy for that outfield trio's production—or lack thereof—away from Coors Field is sure to be a concern for any potential trade partner. Take a look at the splits.
Even with multiple teams in need of outfield help, it's hard to envision any team surrendering the kind of high-end pitching that the Rockies are sure to seek in return. But nobody thought the Rockies would actually trade Tulo, and they did.
It's entirely possible that they lower their expectations when it comes to a return on one of their outfielders in order to facilitate a deal, especially if it brings back young, controllable, inexpensive pieces that are ready to contribute.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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