Big-Name MLB Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Years with Future at Risk
If the 2015 MLB season proved anything, it's that prospects are capable of making an impact at the major league level sooner than they ever have.
With so much young talent entering the big leagues, the stakes have never been higher. Teams' farm systems are ever-evolving, and prospects that can't keep up with the pace are often passed by.
There are several high-profile prospects that are in danger of meeting that fate. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at a few youngsters that are entering make-or-break years for their development.
Byron Buxton, Mark Appel, Jon Gray and Dylan Bundy were all taken early in their respective drafts. Each of those prospects has the ability to develop into a star at the major league level and still has plenty of time to do so.
But those players aren't exactly trending in the right direction. There are questions about Buxton's ability to hit major league pitching, Appel has yet to flourish with the Astros, Gray can't figure out his home ballpark and Bundy can't stay healthy. For whatever the reason, the players on this list have seen their stock fall over the last year.
We'll analyze why the following prospects have fallen on hard times and what they need to do to bounce back in 2016. Let us know if you agree or disagree with our selections in the comments section below.
There's no exact science to scouting prospects. Here are a few youngsters already flirting with the bust label.
Mark Appel, Houston Astros
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2015 Stats (AA/AAA): 10-3, 4.37 ERA, 131.2 IP, 110 K, 51 BB
Houston Astros fans have patiently awaited the day when Mark Appel realizes the potential that convinced the Astros to select him with the first overall pick in the 2013 draft.
If Appel puts together another inconsistent season in 2016, Houston may get tired of waiting.
Appel's journey to become a front-line starter hasn't been a smooth one. The right-hander posted a 9.74 ERA in 12 Double-A starts in 2014 before recording a 3.69 ERA to finish the year in Double-A.
The 24-year-old started the 2015 season back in Double-A, sporting a 4.26 ERA in 13 starts. He was promoted to Triple-A for the back half of the season, where his ERA was up a tick to a 4.48 mark. Appel did see an increase in strikeouts per nine innings after his call-up.
Every prospect deserves to work through growing pains, but it's alarming that Appel has shown little improvement over the last two seasons. At 24, the once-elite prospect isn't even considered the best pitcher in his organization according to some that follow the Astros.
"While both players have the potential to be valuable pitchers at the major league level, Appel's lack of assertion in any given season is a little worrisome after three seasons in pro ball," said Jason Burke of Scout.com. "For me, right now, Francis Martes is quite possibly the best starting pitcher in the Houston Astros organization regardless of the rankings."
There's no doubt that Appel's stuff is big league caliber. He sits in the mid-to-upper 90s with two plus off-speed offerings in his repertoire. For that reason, it would be foolish for Houston to chalk him up as a lost cause.
But as the Astros enter win-now mode, Appel could become expendable if a deal arose that improved the big league product in the immediate future. If Appel wants to regain "untouchable" status, he can't afford another subpar campaign in 2016.
Dylan Bundy/Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles
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Bundy's 2015 Stats (AA): 0-3, 8 starts, 22 IP, 3.68 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 2.05 BB/9
Harvey's 2015 Stats: Did not pitch
The Baltimore Orioles have more than one prospect with blurry futures. Unfortunately for a team in need of starting pitching, both of those youngsters make their living on the mound.
Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have front-of-the-rotation stuff. Bundy is the flamethrower, capable of reaching the upper 90s with his heater. Harvey throws hard—he sits in the low 90s with the ability to ramp it up to 94-95 mph—but his best attribute is an ability to command each of his offerings.
Sounds good on paper, right? While Bundy and Harvey have the talent to be top-tier major league starters, injuries have derailed their paths to the big leagues.
Bundy has been particularly injury prone. After reaching the big leagues in 2012, the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in 2013 and was bothered by shoulder inflammation in 2015. Instead of a much-needed full season of work, Bundy made only eight starts and logged just 22 innings this season.
Because of Bundy's injuries, the Orioles may have no choice but to alter his career path in 2016.
"But given everything that’s happened—and the fact that Bundy is out of minor league options—there’s no doubt that he should be exclusively seen as a reliever this spring," said Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. "No one should even be thinking about him as a starter at this point."
There are similar concerns regarding Harvey. In September, Baltimore shut down the 20-year-old after he experienced recurring pain in his elbow. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, the O's fear that Harvey may need Tommy John, which would cause him to miss the entire 2016 season.
If neither Bundy nor Harvey can stay healthy, there's not much the club can do. The market is slim for hurlers with lengthy histories of arm injuries.
It's difficult to see young players deal with injuries before their careers get started, but it's part of the game. Bundy and Harvey need to prove they can stay healthy, or questions about their long-term use will need to be addressed.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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2015 Stats (MLB): .209/.250/.326, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, .576 OPS
No, I'm not ready to label Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton a bust. At 21, the toolsy prospect has plenty of time to develop into one of MLB's next great stars.
But there should be some concern that Buxton may not be the can't-miss prospect he's been considered since he was taken with the second overall pick in the 2012 draft.
Buxton has held onto MLB.com's No.1 prospect status for the majority of his time in the minor leagues. Considering his five-tool talent and a 2013 season in which he hit 12 homers, stole 55 bases and hit over .330 between Single-A and High-A, that prestigious honor was well-deserved.
But Buxton, albeit mostly due to injuries, took a step back in 2014. He played in just 44 games, slashing only .240/.313/.405 in a High-A he torched the previous year.
So what, right? Buxton was hurt and would surely rebound in 2015 to put himself in position for a late-season call-up.
That looked to be the case early in the year, as Buxton regained some of the shine he lost in 2014. He slashed .283/.351/.489 and stole 20 bases in 59 Double-A games before being promoted to the majors after just 13 contests in Triple-A.
Just like that, Buxton's career was back on track. Until it wasn't. Buxton had a miserable first 46 games in "the Show," slashing .209/.250/.326 and striking out over 31 percent of the time.
It can be argued that Buxton was promoted too soon, but there's no question that he was overmatched during his first taste of big league ball. Entering 2016, Buxton will face similar questions regarding his ability to consistently hit major league pitching.
“There’s similarities to (Aaron) Hicks in that he should not have been in the major leagues when he was,” Twins Vice President of Player Personnel Mike Radcliffe said Wednesday in an interview with Souhan Uncensored. “He wasn’t ready to hit yet. I’m not sure he’s ready to hit right now. I think there’s still a development period. I have no doubt he will be a star player—I still believe that wholeheartedly—and it’s not going to be five years from now, either … It’ll be sometime fairly soon."
Again, it's way too premature to give up on Buxton. That being said, 2016 is an important year for the game's top overall prospect. Another disappointing campaign, and the whispers that Buxton may never live up to his billing will only get louder.
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Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
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2015 Stats (AAA): 6-6, 4.33 ERA, 114.1 IP, 110 K, 41 BB
Jon Gray nearly made the Colorado Rockies Opening Day roster last spring, but he was ultimately sent to Triple-A for some extra seasoning.
The disappointment of returning to the minor leagues may not have been the reason for his poor performance, but Gray didn't pitch like a former No. 3 overall pick to begin the season. The right-hander gave up 21 runs in his first four outings, watching his ERA balloon over 9.00.
Gray pitched much better after that dreadful start but still finished his minor league season with a 4.33 ERA. The Rockies gave him nine big league starts to close the year, where Gray posted a 5.53 ERA in more than 40 innings.
That number was a bit deceiving. The 24-year-old fell victim to the Coors Field curse, pitching much better on the road than at home. He recorded a 2.70 ERA away from Colorado while sporting an 8.27 mark in 20.2 home innings.
"I feel like my road numbers are good," Gray told Nick Groke of the Denver Post. "But here, they're really bad. If I can just...I don't know if it's setting my sights on pitches or what, but I have to make a change fast. I have to pitch here."
Gray isn't the first hurler to struggle in Denver's high altitude, but his poor starts there must concern the Colorado brass. His stuff plays anywhere, but the Rockies need Gray to develop into the pitcher they thought he could be when they took him so early in the 2013 draft.
D.J. Peterson, Seattle Mariners
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2015 Stats (AA/AAA): .223/.287/.344, 7 HR, 44 RBI, .632 OPS
The Seattle Mariners took D.J. Peterson with the 12th pick of the 2013 draft, and that selection looked like a home run through the 2014 season.
Peterson had a monster year, mashing 31 homers and driving in more than 100 runs between High-A and Double-A. For a Seattle team in need of offensive upgrades, Peterson seemed on a fast track to the big leagues.
But a quick journey to "the Show" took a drastic turn in 2015. Peterson suffered through a horrific season, slashing .223/.287/.344 between Double-A and Triple-A. The 23-year-old saw a severe dip in his power totals, which have been his calling card since his collegiate days at the University of New Mexico.
Like most power hitters, Peterson is susceptible to the strikeout. He whiffed nearly 23 percent of the time in Double-A this season, which is on par for what he's done at almost every stop of his minor league career. Teams can deal with K's if balls are flying out of the park as well. But when the extra-base hits stop, swings-and-misses are much harder to look past.
Being a player whose game is predicated on driving the baseball, Peterson's lack of pop is a huge red flag. It's only been one year, but an inability to adjust to better pitching should worry Mariners fans.
"By no means am I insinuating that Peterson is a bust, but it is certainly time to be concerned if this is a slump or a digression," said Wayne Cavadi of Minor League Ball.
Peterson has had to deal with a freak accident that led to a broken jaw, a position change and the sheer pressure of being a top prospect. Maybe he'll be better equipped to handle those aspects of the game in 2016 and we'll see a return to form.
If not, Peterson's days in Seattle may be numbered.
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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