NFL Predictions Week 13: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's unlucky number Week 13, and many NFL teams have already found out 2015 just wasn't their year. No clubs have officially been eliminated, but there are quite a few that clearly aren't postseason-worthy—even if their fans haven't given up the ghost.

At Halloween, we were raving about the unprecedented number of undefeated teams. On this Sunday the 13th, if you will, it's fitting that only the black cats remain.

That's right, the Carolina Panthers are the last team standing, the last squad keeping the 1972 Miami Dolphins' Champagne unpopped (though, for the record, they don't really do the Champagne thing, per Snopes.com).

So now that teams like the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are done chasing perfection, what's next? Battles for seeding, for home-field advantage, for bragging rights. The few bubble teams will be fighting all-out to hang on to their spots against divisional rivals eager to spoil the party.

Our team has gathered to break down what's going to happen when those clubs down on their luck take on the ones getting ready to party: Upsets, blowouts, sleepers and flops are all selected.

All betting lines sourced through Odds Shark and represent the best available consensus line at time of writing.

Biggest Upset

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Oakland Raiders (+2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs—five votes

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in football, having bounced back from a 1-5 start with a five-game win streak. Across that stretch, they've blown out lesser foes such as the Detroit Lions and San Diego Chargers, but they've also toppled AFC title contenders such as the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers.

But winning six games in a row is difficult, and in Week 13 the Chiefs embark on the road leg of their home-and-home with the Raiders. At 5-6, the Raiders are already outperforming expectations. Now, they have a privilege that most wannabe wild-card clubs never get: two games against the team they're chasing in the last month of the season.

If the Raiders are going to pull off the shock playoff berth of the season, they'll need to start with a home win against the Chiefs.

Others receiving votes: Detroit Lions (+3) over Green Bay Packers—two votes, Indianapolis Colts over Pittsburgh Steelers

Biggest Blowout

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Carolina Panthers over New Orleans Saints—three votes

There were several great—feel free to put "great" in quotes—potential blowout matchups to choose from. Every one of the four games nominated was a divisional rivalry matchup, adding a little extra heat to a contest that likely won't need it.

Three of our writers liked Cam Newton and the Panthers, who are hot on the trail of history, to run roughshod over the New Orleans Saints. The poor Saints haven't just been poor—they've been completely uncompetitive. No offense, no defense, no fight at all. They've been outscored 71-20 in their last two games, leading to Rob Ryan's ouster and a Week 12 walkover by the Houston Texans.

If this pathetic level of resistance is all the Saints can manage against the Panthers, continued speculation that head coach Sean Payton might leave for greener pastures at the end of the season may be eclipsed by calls for him to be fired first.

Others receiving votes: Washington over Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals over St. Louis Rams—two votes, Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns

Higher Total: Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards or Seahawks' Team Rushing Yards?

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Seattle Seahawks—seven votes

Adrian Peterson is finally playing like the rejuvenated back he was supposed to be after being forced to take nearly a full season off while his child abuse case was ongoing. He's averaging more than 105 yards per game and is on pace for 1,693 on the season—his third-highest total ever.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, have finally found a legitimate running option in the repeated absence of Marshawn Lynch: Thomas Rawls, an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan who's compiled 685 yards in just five starts. Averaging an outstanding 5.6 yards per carry, he leads a committee that's featured Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson (with much briefer appearances from Fred Jackson and others).

But when the two teams face each other, who'll win out? Peterson, who's averaged 126.8 yards per game in the past five weeks, or the Seahawks as a team, who've averaged 151.8 rushing yards per game in that same stretch?

Seven of our eight writers understandably took the Seahawks, but keep an eye on this: With the Vikings and Seahawks currently running first and second in NFL rushing defense, Peterson is more used to making something out of nothing.

Others receiving votes: Adrian Peterson

Biggest Mismatch

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Geno Atkins/anyone vs. Cam "The Matador" Erving—three votes

Geno Atkins and Cam Erving, the Browns and Bengals, the Browns offensive line and the Bengals defensive line: two players on two units of two teams going in opposite directions.

Atkins is the dominant interior spearhead of a Bengals defense that's playing outstanding football. Cincinnati has held four of its last five opponents to just 10 points or fewer. Rookie Cam Erving and the Browns have been falling apart at the seams; their talent-stocked offensive line had a poor showing on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens.

Not only did Erving turn in his worst Pro Football Focus grade of the year in Week 12, but he was arguably responsible for the blocked last-second field-goal attempt that turned a possible big Browns win into a shocking loss.

Whether or not Erving gets a chance to redeem himself in relief of starting guard Joel Bitonio, the Bengals will surely be pinning their ears back and seeing how many times they can get to new Browns starting quarterback Austin Davis.

Others receiving votes: Broncos pass rush vs. San Diego Chargers offensive line, New York Jets defensive line vs. New York Giants offensive line—two votes, Odell Beckham Jr. vs. "all of humanity"

Sleeper QB Performance

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Alex Smith—three votes

It was a beautiful sight: Alex Smith throwing downfield to star free-agent wideout Jeremy Maclin, going long for rookie speedster Chris Conley, gashing the Bills down the seam with Travis Kelce. It was how the 2015 Chiefs offense was always supposed to look and work. Even the theoretically stout Bills defense was no match for this in-form Chiefs passing game.

Now that the Chiefs have finally put themselves back in pole position for a wild-card berth, they have every reason to keep their foot on the pedal—and keep going downfield. This week of all weeks, as they face the suspect Raiders secondary, should mean a big statistical game for Smith.

Two of our writers also liked young quarterbacks-in-waiting who are finally done waiting: Kirk Cousins against the Dallas Cowboys and Brock Osweiler against the Chargers.

Others receiving votes: Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler—two votes, Matt Hasselbeck

More Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers?

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Matthew Stafford—seven votes

My oh my, how the tables have turned.

When the Detroit Lions first met the Packers this season, the Lions were a miserable 1-7 and riding an unprecedented 23-year road losing streak against Green Bay.

Against all odds and indicators, Matthew Stafford and the Lions made history. Their 18-16 win kicked off what would be at least a three-game win streak and continue what would become at least a 1-4 stretch of futility for the Packers.

Now, the Lions are doing the hosting, and seven of our writers like Stafford to outpass Rodgers in the temperature-controlled confines of Ford Field. Only NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman favored Rodgers to reassert himself as the superior quarterback in one of the NFL's oldest rivalries.

Others receiving votes: Aaron Rodgers

More Interceptions: Brian Hoyer or Tyrod Taylor?

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Brian Hoyer—five votes

Though Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been one of the better stories of the season, he's capable of making mistakes. That said, his 1.6 percent interception rate is fifth-lowest among qualifying NFL quarterbacks, per Pro Football Reference.

Given two defenses with equal interceptions rates of 2.6 percent, per Pro Football Reference, it's no wonder five of our writers tabbed Hoyer to throw more picks—even though, at 1.9 percent, he doesn't do that often either.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier decided to think well outside the box on this question.

"The answer to the 'more interceptions' question is always Matt Schaub," he insisted, "even when he is not competing. Unless Mark Sanchez is involved."

Others receiving votes: Tyrod Taylor—two votes, Matt Schaub

Sleeper RB Performance

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: David Johnson—three votes

It's true, the Arizona Cardinals lost starting tailback Chris Johnson for at least the rest of the season with a fractured tibia. But rookie spark plug David Johnson has already proved he can be a do-everything back, with 380 yards from scrimmage and a whopping seven touchdowns on 54 total touches.

Can he be effective toting a 15-plus-carry load? That's still to be decided, and the Rams' seventh-ranked rushing yardage defense is no joke. But Johnson has talent, and he'll get plenty of opportunity in a high-flying Cardinals offense that should score in bunches against St. Louis.

Others receiving votes: Buck Allen—two votes, Shaun Draughn, Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon

Sleeper WR Peformance

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Brandon LaFell—four votes

The math is simple: Basically every Patriots receiver ever is out injured except for LaFell, who caught just four of his nine targets for a meager 36 yards in Week 12.

However, that was against the Broncos' outstanding secondary in a nasty, sloggy, sloppy, slush ball of a night game. This time, LaFell will go against the Philadelphia Eagles and their struggling defense, and the numbers should be there in bunches.

Two of our writers, NFL Analysts Ty Schalter and Sean Tomlinson, love Panthers wideout Devin Funchess' matchup against the hapless New Orleans Saints defense (see: the "Biggest Blowout" slide).

Others receiving votes: Devin Funchess—two votes, Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks

Sleeper TE Performance

Expert Consensus Pick: Vernon Davis—five votes

It's a new day for the Denver Broncos, one in which quarterback Brock Osweiler has gone from the man on the bench to The Man, period.

Though Vernon Davis was barely used in his first two games after being traded to the Broncos, in two games with Osweiler he has eight catches for 78 yards. He appeared more active in the run game than he had in years. As the Broncos roll up on the San Diego Chargers, look for a *cough* classic tight end duel between Davis and the Chargers' Antonio Gates.

One intriguing runner-up: Cameron Brate of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski threw out the unheralded sophomore from Harvard, as he quietly broke out with a five-catch, 53-yard, one-touchdown effort in an otherwise dismal Bucs' Week 12 performance.

Perhaps Brate can top that against the Falcons.

Others receiving votes: Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph, Jacob Tamme

Best Defensive Performance

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie): Geno Atkins, J.J. Watt—three votes

Picking J.J. Watt to have the defensive performance of the week was the only defensible choice at the beginning of the season, and then his relatively human numbers inspired many to finally go in other directions.

But Watt keeps turning up the heat, racking up an impressive 9.5 sacks in the last five games. For reference, if he could keep it up for a 16-game season, he'd have 30.

Yet, he has to share the award this week with Geno Atkins, the Bengals defensive tackle who's surely set for a monster day against a suffering Browns offensive line (see the "Biggest Mismatch" slide).

Others receiving votes: Clay Matthews, Muhammad Wilkerson

Over/Under: New Orleans Saints Punts or New Orleans Saints Points?

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Points—six votes

Many of our writers scoffed at this award's suggestion and the implication the Saints' once-mighty offense could truly fall so far as to score fewer points than the number of times they would be forced to punt. That's understandable; it would be a mark of egregious offensive failure.

Yet it nearly happened in Week 12, when the Saints were held to just six points. Punter Thomas Morstead was called on six times that day.

Against the Panthers defense, whose third-ranked scoring defense and outstanding secondary seem custom-built to shut down what the Saints do, we could be watching a shutout in Week 13...a shutout with a lot of punts.

Others receiving votes: Punts—two votes

Flop of the Week

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Chip Kelly/Eagles defense—three votes

"The entire NFC East will flop," NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier wrote, "when the Cowboys beat the Redskins 20-17 on a bunch of 54-yard field goals and blocked punt returns and stuff. The Giants and Eagles will also lose, leaving the East with two 5-7 teams in first place and two 4-8 teams behind them."

When it comes to this awful edition of NFL's premier division, packed with cornerstone franchises in enormous markets, why not root for chaos? Why not predict unpredictable levels of flaming disaster? So far, real life has outdone even the most wild-eyed NFC East doomsayers.

When the spectacular implosion of Kelly's Eagles continues against the 10-1 Patriots, why not be there for it? When you're stuck watching Mark Sanchez play quarterback, why not embrace nihilism?

Others receiving votes: NFC East, all things Browns, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Washington