Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Pre-Winter Meetings Buzz
Like chocolate and peanut butter, baseball and music have always fit together well. Whether the inspiration for songwriters or the fuel that fires up a player as he steps into the box, the mutually beneficial relationship they share is timeless.
So it's only fitting that the baseball universe will be descending on Music City—Nashville, Tennessee—for its annual winter meetings, which officially begin Monday, Dec. 7. Owners, general managers, agents, scouts, pundits and players will gather to conduct business, some more urgent than others.
Is it really a two-team race for one of baseball's elite starters? Will a team in need of a rebuild finally take the first step down that road? Could a position player that's closer to his 35th birthday than his 30th command nearly $20 million a season in his new deal?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Fact: At Least 1 Young, Controllable Starter Is Going to Get Traded
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Despite a deep, talented free-agent class of pitchers, there's been no shortage of young, controllable starters reportedly made available this offseason. We're not talking about back-end starters, either.
From Atlanta (Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran) to Chicago (Jose Quintana), and Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) to Miami (Jose Fernandez) and San Diego (Tyson Ross), some quality, front- and middle-of-the-rotation options could draw some interest.
While the asking prices are exorbitant—ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that Cleveland asked San Francisco for Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco—they aren't prohibitive. There's a team out there that's going to pull the trigger on a deal for a young arm.
Perhaps it'll be the Chicago Cubs, with a plethora of young position players, especially middle infielders, that wind up snagging one of those young arms. Or perhaps the Boston Red Sox, with their deep farm system (yes, it's still deep after the Craig Kimbrel deal), will move more prospects in a deal.
With so many teams still in need of pitching, it's only a matter of time before one of those young arms is moved.
Fiction: Boston Won't Make Any Big Moves at the Winter Meetings
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If Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is to be believed, Red Sox fans need not pay much attention to the winter meetings.
“We'll be open-minded going into the winter meetings,” Dombrowski told reporters during a conference call, per WEEI.com's John Tomase. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done. But when you go to the winter meetings, you can never tell what happens.”
After trading for Craig Kimbrel and signing free agents Chris Young and David Price, there's no question that the major moves are done. But there's still work to be done, and Dombrowski has never been one to sit on the sidelines during the winter meetings.
Consider this: While calling the shots in Detroit, Dombrowski acquired Miguel Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer and Dontrelle Willis in trades during baseball's annual winter gathering. He's had some flops, too, like giving away Doug Fister and signing Joe Nathan as a free agent.
Whether the moves he's made at the winter meetings were ultimately good or bad in retrospect, Dombrowski has always been active. There's no reason to believe that's suddenly going to change, not when the Red Sox still need pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen.
Fact: Ben Zobrist's Price Will Continue to Rise
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Move aside, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. For it's a 34-year-old utility player, Ben Zobrist, that has emerged as the most sought-after position player on the free-agent market.
As many as 11 teams—more than a third of major league clubs—are believed to be in the running for Zorilla's services, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and all that demand has seen Zobrist's price tag continue to rise.
Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan tweets that the sense around baseball is that Zobrist's current asking price is a four-year, $60 million deal, noting that price could still increase.
With so many teams in the mix and Zobrist standing as the most versatile player on the market, capable of playing multiple infield spots and in either outfield corner, it's not a question of if his price will continue to rise but how high it's going to go.
It wouldn't at all be shocking if he wound up signing a multiyear deal in excess of $70 million.
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Fiction: There Won't Be a Surprise Bidder for Zack Greinke
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USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that Zack Greinke is expected to decide between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants by the end of the week, and it's entirely possible that the veteran right-hander winds up signing with one of those two teams.
But it'd be foolish and naive to think that another team won't emerge as a late suitor for the 32-year-old, who according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark is seeking a five- or six-year deal with a higher AAV (annual average value) than David Price will be getting from Boston.
St. Louis, which finished second in the bidding for Price, per Nightengale, has had internal discussions about making a run at Greinke, according to a report from ESPN.com's Buster Olney. Spurned by Johnny Cueto, as MLB.com's Steve Gilbert reported, Arizona could look to stick it to its division rivals by getting involved with Greinke as well.
Or Detroit, which after signing Jordan Zimmermann could use another starting pitcher and has an owner, Mike Ilitch, who told ESPN.com's Katie Strang he gave general manager Al Avila the following message heading into the offseason: "I don't care about the money. I want the best players."
While Avila acknowledges the need for more pitching and indicated his next addition would probably be less expensive, we simply can't rule anything out with Ilitch as desperate as he is for a World Series crown.
Fact: Cincinnati Will Finally Start to Clean House
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Despite a lack of chatter on the rumor mill, it stands to reason that the Cincinnati Reds will finally begin to move some of their veteran pieces during the winter meetings, getting the team's rebuilding process underway.
Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier are all guaranteed to be topics of discussion next week, but it's All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman—a favorite of Houston owner Jim Crane, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick—who figures to be the first player moved.
So it should come as no surprise that USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweeted the Cuban sensation remains atop Houston's wish list, which between Crane's admiration, Houston's need for a reliable closer and the team's deep farm system makes the Astros a viable landing spot for Chapman.
The Reds may not make multiple moves at the winter meetings, but it would be shocking if the team didn't move at least one of its veteran pieces before heading home.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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