Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Complete Game Preview
Fresh off rivalry losses, the Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears will each play for their postseason on Saturday in Waco.
The Bears dropped their second in three games on Friday, coming up just short to TCU in double overtime by a 28-21 margin. The loss eliminated Art Briles' team from consideration for the College Football Playoff, but a possible Sugar Bowl berth will keep this team motivated in its final regular-season game.
Charlie Strong's team is also fighting for their postseason standing in this one. Though they should have been eliminated by their 48-45 loss to Texas Tech, but at least two 5-7 teams will be selected, according to NCAA.com.
Given the strength of Texas' brand, the Horns are likely in if they win. But with Baylor motivated and injuries mounting, it will be a tall task in Waco.
Date: Saturday, Dec. 5
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Line: Baylor -21, according to Odds Shark
Texas Keys to Victory
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Score the First Touchdown
Per 247Sports' Drew Lieberman, Texas is 2-14 when it doesn't score the first touchdown of the game under Charlie Strong. Whether that's a fluky figure or not, it's obvious that this team is much better when it plays with a lead. Offensive coordinators Jay Norvell and Jeff Traylor need to empty the playbook to make that happen.
Figure out How to Get the Run Game Going
In home games this season, the Horns are averaging over 266 yards and 5.8 yards per carry. Per CFBStats.com, both of those figures would be top-10 in the nation.
However, on the road, their per-carry average dips below four yards a pop, and the team output drops by over 100 yards per game. That has to change for the Horns to have a chance in Waco.
Force Some Turnovers
With injuries to Peter Jinkens, Malik Jefferson and Hassan Ridgeway, it's inevitable that the Longhorns will give up yardage in this game. However, the Bears showed that they will cough up the rock with three giveaways against TCU. If the Horns can get a couple more on Saturday, they should have a shot at the upset.
Baylor Keys to Victory
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Pound the Rock
Texas has been dreadful stopping the run. And that was before it lost the aforementioned Jinkens, Jefferson and Ridgeway along the front seven. The Horns have given up at least four yards per carry in each of its last four games, getting shredded by Texas Tech for 293 yards and five scores on 51 attempts.
Take your pick in the Baylor backfield. Whoever gets the ball should have a big day.
Force Tyrone Swoopes to Win Through the Air
Jerrod Heard, who is questionable with a concussion, wasn't a great passer as the starter, but at least he could throw deep. Swoopes is completing less than half of his passes, and his longest completion against the Red Raiders went for nine yards. Yes, the same Red Raiders who have given up 127 pass plays of 10 yards or more, per CFBStats.com.
Crowd the box, and make this guy prove he can beat you from pocket.
Play Smart
Per CFBStats.com, Baylor ranks last in the Big 12 in penalties per game and is coming off a loss in which it fumbled five times. The latter figure can somewhat be chalked up to the weather, but it's sloppy football nonetheless.
With all of the injuries on the Texas roster, the Bears are unquestionably the more talented team. It's their job not to give the game away.
Texas Players to Watch
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RB Chris Warren
Getting his second-straight start, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week gets a much tougher task this week. The Bears allow just 3.6 yards per carry, but they have given up big yardage to the better backs they've faced, such as Oklahoma's Samaje Perine.
Warren's not in the same league as Perine, but the potential's pretty apparent. He's obviously powerful at 6'2", 232, but his vision and speed set him apart as he tore up Texas Tech. He's running with confidence, and Texas will do whatever it can to get him going.
WR Daje Johnson
Presumably, Johnson will play his last game for Texas against the team he broke out against as freshman. Seeing his first significant action in that 2012 matchup, Johnson looked like a star in turning nine touches into 104 yards and a touchdown.
Johnson's never made good on the potential he showed in that game, but he'll get his chances to hurt the Bears one last time. Look for him to make a big play either as a receiver or a returner.
S DeShon Elliott
This is both a shot in the dark and wishful thinking. Elliott has hardly been heard from since his two-interception performance against Kansas, and it's time for that to change. Jason Hall has been miserable both in coverage and against the run of late, even getting run over by quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the loss to Texas Tech.
A fierce hitter at 205 pounds, it's time for "The Kraken" to get some meaningful snaps.
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Baylor Players to Watch
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DT Andrew Billings
No Patrick Vahe means Billings is guaranteed to line up across from the combination of Taylor Doyle and Sedrick Flowers for at least some of this game. Neither of those two is equipped to deal with a player as gifted as Billings. The junior's going to be a living nightmare in the Longhorn backfield.
WR Corey Coleman
Remember when this guy was a Heisman candidate? The junior's been stuck on touchdown No. 20 since the Kansas State game on Nov. 6 and has just 136 receiving yards over his last three games. He was averaging 147 over his previous eight.
Coleman figures to see freshman Holton Hill in coverage. Let's see if he can bust loose one more time before the bowl season.
QB Chris Johnson
Johnson's in a really interesting situation. A receiver to begin the season, the sophomore's been moved back over to quarterback after injuries to both Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham. Now, his second start could send Baylor to the Sugar Bowl and his third could be a win on one of the game's biggest stages. After that, he might never play quarterback again.
Before any of that comes to fruition, he has to get it together following a pretty rough showing in the loss to TCU.
What They're Saying
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Texas
Charlie Strong, during his Monday presser, discussing his team's approach in spite of its losing record and bevy of injuries:
"I think our guys will still go out and compete, because they don't want to get embarrassed, and they know this, that it's their last game, and for the seniors it is their last game. For some of them they may not ever put on another uniform at all, so you'd like to see them go out where we go out and represent them the right way.
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Running back Chris Warren, to KVUE Austin's Mike Barnes, on the state of the Texas program:
"Texas can be back and Texas will be back, I guarantee you.
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Baylor
Art Briles, during his Monday presser, on trying to reach the Sugar Bowl:
"Well, I'd be running as fast as I could to get that berth, because it's worth chasing. But right now we have a job to do Saturday, and that could really be a great accomplishment for our football team, because if you're not going to finish first, then finish second. I think that would show a lot of consistency over the years.
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Briles on his approach to this matchup and being Texas' bowl game:
"Yeah, I definitely think it's dangerous to face any team, but when you face a team this talented in their situation, then yeah, that's always something to take note of. We just have to be us, that's the deal. It's not about the opponent – each week it's about us. Baylor football doing what we do, as well as we can do it. If we do that, then everything else will take care of itself, so we're really concentrating on making sure that we chase the goals and aspirations that we need to reach, and reach them, and do it in a manner that allows us to win the football game. That's what it's all about with us.
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Prediction
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Maybe if Texas was at home, had its quarterback and didn't have three starters injured along its front seven, we'd give the Horns a chance.
Since none of those things are true, their fans better brace for another blowout.
Baylor's strengths make this a tough matchup for the Horns. The Bears have been good against the run all year, which is about all Texas does well on offense. The Longhorns have also been getting shredded on the ground of late, and the Bears boast the nation's No. 4 rushing offense, per CFBStats.com.
Even if Jefferson and Ridgeway can play in spite of questionable tags, this is a tough draw for this defense. Add in the season-long road woes (Texas has been outscored 150-20 in true road games), and it's hard to see how this team will suddenly find it in Waco.
Anything can happen, as these Horns showed in their shocking upset of playoff-bound Oklahoma. Just don't be surprised when lightning doesn't strike again.
Baylor 41, Texas 23
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and information courtesy of TexasSports.com and BaylorBears.com.
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