What If the 2015-2016 MLB Free-Agent Class Could Form Its Own Team?
The 2015-16 MLB free-agent pool is deep, that much we know. But just how deep is it?
There are many ways to answer that question. Here's an intriguing one: Let's create a team—a full 25-man roster—by "drafting" players exclusively from this winter's market.
A few ground rules:
All free agents—including those who have already signed a contract—are eligible, but trade targets aren't. Sorry, Aroldis Chapman.
We'll consider only players who rejected a qualifying offer, even though that takes the best catcher (Matt Wieters) off the board.
To be placed at a position, a player has to have made at least one start there last season. And speaking of positions, our team will not feature a designated hitter, though you can use your imagination and pull one from the starting lineup or bench.
After running through our imaginary roster, we'll take an educated guess at how they'd fare over a 162-game slog.
Is this a scientific way to gauge the depth of the free-agent pool? Not really. Is it a fun diversion while we wait for the next big trade or signing?
Dig in and find out.
Catcher: Alex Avila
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2015 Stats: 67 G, .191 BA, .626 OPS, 4 HR, 13 RBI
When Wieters accepted the Baltimore Orioles' qualifying offer, a thin catching market became virtually transparent.
Still, if you're willing to gamble on a bounce-back, there are things to like about Alex Avila.
Yes, concussions and various other injuries have limited his playing time and output in recent years. But he's still just 28, meaning a return to form is possible.
By "form," we don't mean the monster 2011 season that saw him club 19 home runs with an .895 OPS and finish 12th in American League MVP voting.
But something along the lines of the 11 home runs and 22 doubles he hit in 2014 seems reasonable—which explains why the Chicago White Sox scooped him up on a one-year, $2.5 million deal the day before Thanksgiving.
First Base: Chris Davis
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2015 Stats: 160 G, .262 BA, .923 OPS, 47 HR, 117 RBI
After hitting just .196 and getting slapped with an amphetamine suspension in 2014, Crush Davis lived up to his nickname last season.
His 47 home runs paced all of baseball, and now he enters the market as not merely the best available first baseman, but also arguably the best pure power hitter.
Add the fact that he doesn't turn 30 until March and can play third base and the corner outfield positions, and you've got a mega-contract in the making—plus a monster middle-of-the-order bat for our theoretical roster.
Second Base: Howie Kendrick
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2015 Stats: 117 G, .295 BA, .746 OPS, 9 HR, 54 RBI
Kendrick missed some time to injury last season, but when he was on the field he provided his usual steady offense, getting hits in bunches and flashing legit gap power.
His defensive metrics took a significant hit, with his defensive runs saved (DRS) falling from seven in 2014 to minus-12, per FanGraphs. That's troubling, but it could be more an anomalous blip than an ominous harbinger.
And if we're looking at intangibles, the 32-year-old veteran has a reputation as a strong clubhouse leader. That doesn't matter as much as production, obviously, but it can't be discounted.
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Third Base: Ben Zobrist
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2015 Stats: 126 G, .276 BA, .809 OPS, 13 HR, 56 RBI
OK, we're kind of fudging here. Zobrist was mostly a second baseman last year, and that's where his offensive numbers look the best.
But he did make three starts at the hot corner for the world champion Kansas City Royals. And while he doesn't have the pop of a prototypical third baseman, he belongs somewhere in our starting lineup.
Really, it's Zobrist's versatility (he can also capably play the corner outfield spots) that makes the 34-year-old Swiss army knife such a valuable asset.
How valuable? As many as 20 teams may be in on Zobrist, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. Good thing we don't have to compete with that.
Shortstop: Ian Desmond
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2015 Stats: 156 G, .233 BA, .674 OPS, 19 HR, 62 RBI
Like at catcher, the shortstop market is thin. And as as with our backstop Avila, we're crossing fingers for a bounce-back season from Ian Desmond.
Truly, Desmond wasn't terrible in 2015. His 19 home runs were the third most among MLB shortstops. But after winning three straight Silver Slugger awards and compiling 10.9 WAR between 2012 and 2014, per Baseball-Reference.com, Desmond's production took a dip.
It'll force him to take a smaller payday. Yet at age 30, he's more than capable of rediscovering his stroke, as he teased by notably raising his numbers in the second half.
"I've played with Ian for a long time," Washington Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman said in the midst of Desmond's post-All-Star resurgence, per James Wagner of the Washington Post. "He's going to continue to grind it out and play hard. That's why he’s earned the respect he has around here."
Left Field: Justin Upton
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2015 Stats: 150 G, .251 BA, .790 OPS, 26 HR, 81 RBI, 19 SB
Upton's production declined across the board in his first—and likely only—season with the San Diego Padres.
Still, the 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick remains one of the game's elite all-around talents, and a legitimate, monster breakout season still seems to be within his grasp.
Even if he does nothing more than replicate his 2015 line, he'll be valuable, and will surely command a long, costly commitment from someone. CBS Sports' Heyman predicted seven years, $161 million.
Fortunately, for our imaginary roster purposes, money is no object.
Center Field: Yoenis Cespedes
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2015 Stats: 159 G, .291 BA, .870 OPS, 35 HR, 105 RBI
Yoenis Cespedes went on an otherworldly tear after the New York Mets acquired him at the trade deadline, then largely disappeared in the postseason. The truth about his ability is somewhere in the middle.
He's not the demigod Babe Ruth he appeared to be down the stretch for New York, but he is one of the more exciting pure power hitters in the game and is still in his prime at age 30.
Mostly, the mashing Cuban adds more thump to the middle of our increasingly dangerous pretend lineup. And while his defensive skill set probably plays better at a corner outfield spot, he saw enough action in center with the Mets to qualify here.
Right Field: Jason Heyward
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2015 Stats: 154 G, .293 BA, .797 OPS, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 23 SB
You could make a case for Heyward as our center fielder, as he did make eight starts there last season for the St. Louis Cardinals.
But he was also the best defensive right fielder in baseball, according to FanGraphs, so there's really no wrong choice.
Heyward doesn't put up the power numbers typically associated with a corner outfielder. He does, however, do many things well, including getting on base and swiping bags. At age 26, he's like Upton yet more so—a young, five-tool player with incredible upside.
Plus, our fake squad is already sagging with sluggers. Heyward's wheels and OBP tendencies at the top of the lineup, coupled with his exemplary glove, make him an ideal piece.
Bench
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INF
1B/2B/3B Daniel Murphy (130 G, .281 BA, .770 OPS, 14 HR, 73 RBI)
SS Asdrubal Cabrera (143 G, .265 BA, .744 OPS, 15 HR, 58 RBI)
OF
LF Alex Gordon (104 G, .271 BA, .809 OPS, 13 HR, 48 RBI)
CF Dexter Fowler (156 G, .250 BA, .757 OPS, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB)
CF Denard Span (61 G, .301 BA, .796 OPS, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 11 SB)
C
Chris Iannetta (92 G, .188 BA, .628 OPS, 10 HR, 34 RBI)
What a bench!
Murphy, he of the record-setting postseason home run streak, can play all over the infield. Cabrera provides another veteran bat with some pop up the middle.
In the outfield, three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner Gordon is joined by Fowler and Span, quality hitters with plus speed.
Iannetta struggled at the plate last season, but he's a right-handed complement to the lefty-swinging Avila and he was the fifth-best pitch-framer in baseball, according to StatCorner.com.
Starting Rotation
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LHP David Price (2.45 ERA, 220.1 IP, 225 SO, 1.076 WHIP)
RHP Zack Greinke (1.66 ERA, 222.2 IP, 200 SO, 0.844 WHIP)
RHP Johnny Cueto (3.44 ERA, 212 IP, 176 SO, 1.132 WHIP)
RHP Jordan Zimmermann (3.66 ERA, 201.2 IP, 164 SO, 1.205 WHIP)
LHP Scott Kazmir (3.10 ERA, 183 IP, 155 SO, 1.208 WHIP)
What a rotation!
We start with the lights-out lefty/righty duo of Price and Greinke, the Cy Young Award runners-up in each league.
And it doesn't drop off much from there with Cueto and Zimmermann (the only arm in the group to sign so far), each of whom could plausibly front a playoff-caliber rotation.
The fifth spot was something of a toss-up, and could have gone to any number of worthy candidates, including Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen—the list goes on.
Chen, particularly, was enticing, but in the end we went with another southpaw, Kazmir, who continued his career resurgence despite struggling down the stretch with the Houston Astros.
"Struggling," meanwhile, would rarely be in the vocabulary of this criminally stacked group.
Bullpen
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RHP Joakim Soria (72 G, 2.53 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 8.5 K/9)
RHP Darren O'Day (68 G, 1.52 ERA, 0.934 WHIP, 11.3 K/9)
RHP Tyler Clippard (69 G, 2.92 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, 8.1 K/9)
RHP Ryan Madson (68 G, 2.13 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 8.2 K/9)
LHP Antonio Bastardo (66 G, 2.98 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 10.1 K/9)
LHP Tony Sipp (60 G, 1.99 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, 10.3 K/9)
We could have cheated and snuck in some of the starters who didn't make the rotation cut. But that's against the spirit of the exercise.
Instead, we dipped into a bullpen market that, while not stocked with top-shelf closers, features ample talent.
Soria has 202 career saves, so he's the presumed ninth inning guy. But O'Day, who made the All-Star team last season as a setup man, is probably the best arm in the bunch.
Fellow right-handers Clippard and Madson provide setup-quality depth. Bastardo has held left-handed hitters to a career .178 average. And the other southpaw, Tony Sipp, is coming off a career year with the 'Stros.
How Would They Fare?
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This team boasts two defining traits: a ridiculously loaded starting rotation and incredible depth and versatility.
A Price/Greinke tandem would rival any one-two punch in the game. But with borderline aces all the way down to the No. 5 slot, opponents would have few opportunities to come up for air.
Offensively, Heyward and either Zobrist or Kendrick provide speed and table-setting abilities, followed by a murderers' row of Upton, Davis and Cespedes, who combined to hit 108 home runs last year.
Behind that lurks what would easily be the best bench in baseball—and one of the best of all time.
The bullpen doesn't boast an elite closer, but the tandem of O'Day and Soria should be more than adequate, and it's a solid crew from top to bottom with nary a gas can in the mix.
You could argue that with so many stars jockeying for position and playing time, clubhouse cohesion could be an issue. Would the likes of Gordon and Murphy really cede starting roles without grumbling?
Winning, on the other hand, eases a lot of tension.
Nothing is guaranteed, obviously. But this team would be built to withstand injuries, slumps and the rigors of a long season. Barring a complete meltdown, they'd run away with any division, should easily eclipse 100 wins and would enter the postseason as the prohibitive favorites to hoist the trophy.
Of course, it's just a fantasy. For one, this roster would cost more than the gross domestic product of a small nation. But it speaks to the riches available on this year's free-agent market, and the immense amount of game-changing talent that will change hands before the first spring thaw.
Next year's crop isn't nearly as bountiful. Just compare the lists of MLB's 2015-16 free agents to the projected 2016-17 group, per MLB Trade Rumors. The disparity is striking.
So do your shopping now, general managers. You likely won't construct a roster as deep and formidable as the one we cobbled together, but you'll find talent to spare.
All statistics current as of Dec. 1 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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