Fantasy Football Week 12: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 12 of the fantasy football has arrived, which means only two weeks are left until the fantasy playoffs begin. With that in mind, this article will look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential and earn a playoff spot.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning assumes a top spot this week with his matchup against the Washington Redskins. Quarterbacks have annihilated the Redskins in recent weeks, and Manning had success against them earlier this year as well.

At the running back position, Seattle Seahawks sensation Thomas Rawls has earned a spot in the top five. With Marshawn Lynch expected to miss Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (and more, per NFL.com), Rawls is in line for another big workload. He has shown he can handle it.

Additionally, it’s time to stop overlooking Larry Fitzgerald or waiting for him to fall back down to earth. Find out why he’s set for yet another big game in Week 12.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 12.

Quarterbacks: Eli Manning Assumes a Spot in the Top 5

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

Eli Manning

Eli Manning and the New York Giants will square off against the Washington Redskins, who were just torched by Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. The Redskins gave up five passing touchdowns to Newton last week and ceded 279 yards and two touchdowns to Manning in Week 3. Manning posted an NFL quarterback rating of 119.1 when he played against them earlier this season—his second-highest mark of the year.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers and Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers were the Nos. 1 and 2 quarterbacks this week, respectively, but they were excluded from this list because they played on Thanksgiving.

The Projections

1. Carson Palmer (at SF): 20-of-29, 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.2 fantasy points
2. Tom Brady (at DEN): 32-of-46, 356 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—22.2 fantasy points
3. Eli Manning (at WAS): 23-of-36, 301 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22 fantasy points
4. Drew Brees (at HOU): 27-of-35, 315 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—20.6 fantasy points
5. Blake Bortles (vs. SD): 28-of-40, 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions—19.2 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Quarterbacks have thrown for 14 touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints in the past three weeks combined, according to ESPN.com. That fact alone makes Brian Hoyer of the Houston Texans a solid streaming option in Week 12, as he gets first dibs at the Saints post-Rob Ryan.

Here’s another reason to like Eli Manning this week: The Redskins have given up at least two passing scores to quarterbacks in each of their past five games.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton’s troubles could continue into Week 12. He will play against the St. Louis Rams, who have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Quarterbacks have thrown for one or no touchdowns against the Rams 80 percent of the time this season.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning’s average depth of target (aDOT) was 9.5 this season, but Brock Osweiler aDOT in Week 11 was only 6.4. The Broncos appear to be reeling it in.

Tom Brady of the New England Patriots was under pressure on over half (52.5 percent) of his dropbacks in Week 11, but only 4.8 percent of those pressures turned into sacks. For comparison, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was pressured on 59.6 percent of his dropbacks last week, and 21.4 percent of them resulted in sacks.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has been lethal when using play action this season. His NFL quarterback rating is 117.3 on play-action passes—the highest mark in the league—and his yards per attempt on such passes is 11.5, which is significantly higher than any other qualifying quarterback. He runs a play-action pass on about 20 percent of his dropbacks.

Running Backs: Thomas Rawls Is a Top-5 RB This Week

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Thomas Rawls

It speaks volumes about the 2015 season that in Week 12—one of the most important weeks in all of fantasy—Adrian Peterson is the only running back ranked in the top five who we could have predicted back in August.

However, each one of these five players certainly belongs today. St. Louis Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley has dominated the league to begin his career, while Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin has had a career revival in 2015.

The last player on the list—Seattle Seahawks backup-now-starter Thomas Rawls—has three 100-yard-plus games to his name this season and is fresh off a 30-carry, 200-yard-plus performance. With Marshawn Lynch out for Week 12 and beyond, Rawls is a strong RB1.

Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart was in the top five, but he was excluded because he played Thursday.

The Projections

1. Adrian Peterson (at ATL): 22 carries, 126 yards, 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 24 yards—21 fantasy points
2. Todd Gurley (at CIN): 25 carries, 118 yards, 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 29 yards—20.7 fantasy points
3. Doug Martin (at IND): 20 carries, 104 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 42 yards—20.6 fantasy points
4. Thomas Rawls (vs. PIT): 22 carries, 95 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions, 35 yards—19 fantasy points
5. Chris Ivory (vs. MIA): 18 carries, 92 yards 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 18 yards—17 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Atlanta Falcons have given up 10 rushing touchdowns to running backs so far this season—tied for second-most in the league, according to ESPN.com—and 13 total touchdowns to running backs (tied for most in the league). That’s good news for Peterson, who should feast on the Falcons this week.

Don’t look now, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense is good. Running backs have yet to score a rushing touchdown against the Buccaneers since Week 3, and only two teams’ backfields have combined to go for more than 100 yards against the Bucs since Week 3. Frank Gore of the Indianapolis Colts could have a tough go of it against Tampa Bay in Week 12.

The ultimate team at slowing down running backs from a fantasy perspective this season, however, is the New York Jets, who have ceded just one rushing score to running backs in 2015. Don’t be surprised if Lamar Miller of the Miami Dolphins sees just a few touches again in Week 12 as the Dolphins look for other ways to beat the Jets. 

What the Metrics Say

Martin has forced 42 missed tackles on 188 carries this season—second-most in the league behind Stewart (43 forced misses), according to Pro Football Focus. However, both of these players are miles ahead of the competition—the next closest is Carlos Hyde of the San Francisco 49ers with 32 misses, and no other running back has forced more than 30 misses so far this season.

Gurley is only in on about 60 percent of St. Louis’ snaps, and his pass-blocking skills (or lack thereof) are a major reason why. Over the past two weeks combined, he has only pass-blocked once.

Buffalo Bills rookie running back Karlos Williams likely won’t see a ton of playing time, as he’s the backup to the talented LeSean McCoy, but if he did get more opportunities, fantasy owners would rejoice. Williams has scored 0.47 fantasy points per snap this year, second-most among all running backs (behind Ryan Mathews of the Philadelphia Eagles).

Wide Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald’s Revival Is Still Going

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Larry Fitzgerald

When the 2015 NFL season began, Arizona Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald found new life and was a fantasy stud. However, many people figured that revival would be short-lived and he would fade back into the nether in favor of the younger John Brown and Michael Floyd.

Not so. Fitzgerald continues to thrive for the Cardinals—and not necessarily at the expense of Floyd or Brown—and he finds himself ranked in the top five this week thanks to a favorable matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who just gave up three passing touchdowns to the Seattle Seahawks last week.

The Projections

1. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. NO): 10 receptions, 142 yards, 1 touchdown—20.2 fantasy points
2. Odell Beckham Jr. (at WAS): 8 receptions, 125 yards, 1 touchdown—18.5 fantasy points
3. Julio Jones (vs. MIN): 11 receptions, 122 yards, 1 touchdown—18.2 fantasy points
4. Antonio Brown (at SEA): 9 receptions, 113 yards, 1 touchdown—17.3 fantasy points
5. Larry Fitzgerald (at SF): 8 receptions, 98 yards, 1 touchdown—15.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The San Francisco 49ers have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts so far this season, according to ESPN.com, which is yet another reason to like Fitzgerald in Week 12. The 49ers have given up a touchdown to a wide receiver in all but two games this season.

If Danny Amendola is a no-go for the New England Patriots in Week 12, don’t expect any New England wideout to do much. The Denver Broncos have given up only one touchdown to a wide receiver all season long.

The Minnesota Vikings have been strong overall against wide receivers this season, as they rank in the top 10 in terms of preventing wideouts from scoring fantasy points. That means Atlanta Falcons wideout Julio Jones could have some troubles. However, he is such an elite talent that he can transcend the matchup. Plus, the Vikings have given up three touchdowns to wideouts in the past two weeks combined, so it’s not like they are invincible. This is a tricky matchup to predict.

What the Metrics Say 

Fitzgerald has not dropped a single pass that traveled beyond the line of scrimmage this season, per Pro Football Focus.

Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Allen Robinson continues to be one of the biggest deep threats in the league. Over one-third (37.6 percent) of his targets are of the “deep” variety—i.e. 20-plus yards down the field—and that’s the main reason why he has gained more yards (462) on deep passes than any other wideout this season.

New St. Louis Rams wide receiver Wes Welker is back to being a slot receiver through and through—literally. A full 100 percent of his routes last week (a total of 12) came from the slot. The 10 routes he ran in Week 10 were also all from the slot.

Tight Ends: Trust Delanie Walker in Week 12

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Delanie Walker

Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker had an excellent game in Week 11, but it has gone largely unnoticed because he didn’t score a touchdown. In truth, scoring touchdowns is not his strong suit, but he continues to rack up yards and receptions.

In fact, Walker led all tight ends last week in three key categories: targets (10), receptions (eight) and yards (109). It wouldn’t be surprising to see him lead in those categories again in Week 12 against the Oakland Raiders, who have been terrible at stopping fantasy tight ends all season long. And Walker might even score this week, as the Raiders have given up 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season—most in the league, per ESPN.com.

Greg Olsen of the Carolina Panthers was on the list, but he was excluded because he played Thursday.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at DEN): 5 receptions, 94 yards, 1 touchdown—15.4 fantasy points
2. Tyler Eifert (vs. STL): 4 receptions, 68 yards, 1 touchdown—12.8 fantasy points
3. Delanie Walker (vs. OAK): 8 receptions, 95 yards—9.5 fantasy points
4. Antonio Gates (at JAC): 7 receptions, 92 yards—9.2 fantasy points
5. Travis Kelce (vs. BUF): 6 receptions, 78 yards—7.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Jimmy Graham could have a big game for the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12. Their opponent—the Pittsburgh Steelers—have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season, per ESPN.com.

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates ranks so high this week because he will play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2015. The Jaguars have given up a combined 23 receptions, 256 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends in the past two weeks combined.

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce finds himself in the top five this week, but don’t be surprised if he has a down game. He’ll meet the Buffalo Bills, who have given up just eight receptions for 72 yards and no touchdowns to all tight ends in the past four games combined.

What the Metrics Say 

Kelce is virtually the same player out of the slot as he is when lining up as a traditional tight end. He has gained 1.92 average yards per route run while coming out of the slot, compared to 1.87 yards per route run in general, per Pro Football Focus.

You don’t often think of tight ends as deep threats, but that’s exactly what Miami Dolphins tight end Jordan Cameron has become. Over 20 percent of his targets this season have come on deep routes (targets 20-plus yards down the field). Gronkowski is the next-closest tight end to that (among tight ends with at least 25 targets), with 15.4 percent of his targets coming on deep balls.

Jordan Reed of the Washington Redskins and Walker are tied among all tight ends with 0.22 fantasy points per snap scored so far this season.

Kickers: Stream Washington’s Dustin Hopkins in Week 12

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

Dustin Hopkins

Green Bay Packers kicker Mason Crosby was ranked No. 3 heading into the week, but he played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at DEN): 4/4 FGs, 2/2 XPs—14 fantasy points
2. Steven Hauschka (vs. PIT): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
3. Matt Bryant (vs. MIN): 3/3 FGs, 2/2 XPs—11 fantasy points
4. Cairo Santos (vs. BUF): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Chandler Catanzaro (at SF): 2/2 FGs, 3/3 XPs—9 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

Kickers have had great success against the New York Giants recently. Each of the past three kickers who have played against the Giants has scored 10-plus points, and all of the previous six kickers who played against them have scored at least nine fantasy points, according to ESPN.com. Washington Redskins kicker Dustin Hopkins gets to play against the Giants this week.

No kicker has missed a field goal against either the Arizona Cardinals or Seattle Seahawks so far this season. That’s potentially good news for Phil Dawson, whose San Francisco 49ers play the Seahawks this week, and for Mike Nugent of the Cincinnati Bengals, who draws the Cardinals.

Kickers have only made four field goals against the Indianapolis Colts in the past four games combined. That could be bad for Tampa Bay Buccaneers kicker Connor Barth, who hasn’t connected on multiple field goals in a game since Week 9.

Defense and Special Teams: Fire Up the Kansas City D/ST This Week

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs D/ST vaults into the top three of the rankings with their matchup against the Buffalo Bills coming up. The Chiefs will be an even better start this week if Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor can’t suit up, which would force EJ Manuel under center.

The Carolina Panthers D/ST was ranked No. 4 but played Thursday and was excluded from the list.

The Projections

1. Arizona Cardinals (at SF): 13 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
2. New York Jets (vs. MIA): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
3. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BUF): 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
4. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. STL): 14 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks
5. Seattle Seahawks (vs. PIT): 21 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks

Stats to Know

The St. Louis Rams offense has allowed opposing D/STs to score double-digit points in back-to-back games. The Cincinnati Bengals—whose D/ST has scored in the double digits in two of the past four games—is primed for a big week.

Beware of the Denver D/ST this week: D/STs playing against the New England Patriots have scored an average of zero fantasy points per game this season, per ESPN.com.

Despite having a relatively high-powered offense (at least on the stat sheet), the Jacksonville Jaguars remain one of the best teams your fantasy D/ST could face. The Jaguars have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season and have given up at least seven fantasy points in six straight games.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.