Week 12 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

With so many losing teams and a pair of division leaders at .500, it's no wonder NFL Week 12 odds out of Las Vegas feature some eye-popping numbers.

None of them should be a surprise, either. When teams thinking about the Super Bowl encounter franchises fantasizing about who might be available in the top five of the next draft, it leads to such numbers. 

It's not all bad, of course, as close spreads dot the slate at odd intervals. Below, let's take a look at the whole thing and come up with predictions.

NFL Week 12 Odds

Game	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Phialdelphia at Detroit	E	45	DET 27-20
Carolina at Dallas	E	46	CAR 20-17
Chicago at Green Bay	GB -10	47	GB 44-24
Minnesota at Atlanta	ATL -1	46	MIN 28-20
St. Louis at Cincinnati	CIN -10	42	CIN 24-21
New Orleans at Houston	HOU -3	47.5	NO 17-14
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis	IND -3	47	IND 27-24
San Diego at Jacksonville	JAC -4	46.5	JAC 21-20
Buffalo at Kansas City	NL	--	BUF 33-28
Miami at New York Jets	NYJ -3.5	42.5	NYJ 20-16
Oakland at Tennessee	OAK -1	44	OAK 30-17
New York Giants at Washington	NYG -1	46.5	NYG 24-23
Arizona at San Francisco	ARI -11.5	45	ARI 38-14
Pittsburgh at Seattle	SEA -4.5	45	PIT 30-20
New England at Denver	NE -3	45	NE 28-24
Baltimore at Cleveland	CLE -2.5	41.5	CLE 13-10

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.     

Early-Week Odds to Bet

Chicago at Green Bay (-10)

A last-second field goal, a turnover, prevent defense, sloppy weather. So many things can ruin a huge spread for those who take the over.

The Chicago Bears aren't on the list.

The Bears hosted the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and took a 31-23 loss. Aaron Rodgers threw three scores with no picks on just 23 attempts, while his ground game managed 133 yards and a score.

Much has changed since then, and it's all bad for the Bears. Chicago has suffered injuries, and it's hard to know if Matt Forte will suit up after missing another game this past weekend. Also, the Bears have to take to the road this time.

Did anyone mention Rodgers just threw a pair of scores in a 30-13 thrashing of would-be contenders in the Minnesota Vikings? Or that he's thrown eight touchdowns over the course of his past three games?

Chicago, a team that just got beat by Denver Broncos backup quarterback Brock Osweiler, doesn't have the means to stop Rodgers, let alone post enough points to keep up.

Prediction: Packers 44, Bears 24

Arizona (-11.5) at San Francisco

The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers have already done the divisional dance once this year, too.

Hence the huge spread.

Back in Week 3, the Cardinals hosted the 49ers and breezed to a 47-7 decision behind a pair of touchdowns from quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Chris Johnson and four interceptions by the defense.

It takes a lot for Las Vegas to make the road team double-digit favorites, but who can blame oddsmakers? San Francisco now trots out Blaine Gabbert under center. The team has produced 17 and 13 points over two games in which he's mustered three touchdowns to two picks.

Arizona, on the other hand, just took down a Super Bowl contender by besting the Cincinnati Bengals, 34-31. Before that, the Cardinals mopped up the Seattle Seahawks 39-32—the team that just beat down the 49ers, 29-13.

San Francisco doesn't stand a chance at home. Gabbert cannot muster enough offense on his own, especially if his starting tailback is Shaun Draughn again. Palmer won't have any problems moving the ball with his wealth of weapons.

Prediction: Cardinals 38, 49ers 14

Pittsburgh at Seattle (-4.5)

Tired of blowouts? How about an upset? 

Las Vegas seems to like those Seahawks over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but health will decide much about the contest.

For instance, the Seahawks don't figure to have star back Marshawn Lynch, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter:

Granted, the Seahawks will have backup Thomas Rawls, who just ran for 209 yards and a score, but there's a big difference between San Francisco's leaky unit and a Steelers defense surrendering just 93 rushing yards per game on average.

Most important, though, is the fact the Steelers will have Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Big Ben suffered a foot injury in Week 9, but he has still thrown for at least 334 yards and two scores in each of his last two outings, topped off by 379 yards and a trio of scores in Week 10. Coach Mike Tomlin hit the proverbial nail on the head when talking with ESPN's Britt McHenry:

The Steelers have the defensive talent to shut down the Seahawks, whereas the once-elite Seattle defense hasn't resembled its usual self this season. Antonio Brown shouldn't have problems running wild while DeAngelo Williams pounds away on the ground.

Remember, Seattle has already lost twice at home this year. Look for Big Ben to put up a huge performance late in an "upset."

Prediction: Steelers 30, Seahawks 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Nov. 22. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.