NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Projecting Final Playoff Field Heading into Week 13
If Ronda Rousey and the Ohio State Buckeyes have taught us anything this month, it's that a major upset is just a well-executed game plan and a well-timed kick away.
As is College Football Playoff pandemonium.
The Michigan State Spartans' upset of Ohio State altered the playoff landscape. It was assumed that the defending national champions would take care of business in the Big Ten and earn the right to defend its title in the tournament.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Instead, the Iowa Hawkeyes now represent the Big Ten in the Top Four. But even Kirk Ferentz's squad has much to prove before getting its shot on the biggest stage.
College football's final week means rivalry week. And with rivalry week comes the potential for serious chaos.
Here's a look at the projected Top Four for the end of the season, along with some teams on upset alert as they attempt to make their final case for a berth.
| Orange Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma |
| Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State |
Teams on Upset Alert
Iowa Going to Lincoln Looking to Go 12-0
The term "lucky" is generally overused to describe teams. No team gets to 11-0 by luck alone.
However, "fortunate" can describe a team that just hasn't run into the right test. And Iowa's good fortune might come to an end on Saturday.
The Hawkeyes simply haven't been tested very often on the road. This will only be their fifth game in a hostile environment this season. A 40-10 win over Northwestern stands out as the only quality win in their previous four.
| Sept. 12 | Iowa State (3-8) | W: 31-17 |
| Oct. 3 | Wisconsin (8-3) | W: 10-6 |
| Oct. 17 | Northwestern (9-2) | W: 40-10 |
| Nov. 7 | Indiana (5-6) | W: 35-27 |
| Nov. 27 | Nebraska (5-6) | ? |
Of all of Iowa's road opponents, the 5-6 Cornhuskers might be the most dangerous. Mike Riley's team is coming off of wins over Michigan State and Rutgers.
The Spartans also came into their matchup with Nebraska undefeated. Now the Huskers are looking forward to play spoiler again.
Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. discussed the upcoming matchup, via Eric Olson of the Associated Press:
"We've been looking forward to it. We wanted them to be undefeated coming in just like we wanted Michigan State to be undefeated. We want to prove that our record doesn't say anything about the team we have. Yeah, we lost some close games, a lot of close games. We are a very good football team. We just have to put it all together and when we do, it shows.
"
The analytics give the Huskers a great shot to get their record to .500 and ruin the Hawkeyes' run. According to B/R's Ed Feng, this is pretty much a 50/50 game:
The Hawkeyes have found a way to prove doubters wrong all season. Beating a hot team on the road would add a quality win to their playoff resume, but a loss would likely knock them out of contention.
Notre Dame Looking to Make One Last Playoff Case at Stanford
Watching Iowa lose on Friday might give the Notre Dame Fighting Irish a boost in their quest for a playoff berth. But losing to Stanford would make that a short-lived excitement for the Irish.
Up to this point, Notre Dame's signature wins are Temple and Navy. Those are two solid programs. Navy is in the top 10 of Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings, meaning they are among the most efficient teams in the country.
Unfortunately, any program from the Group of Five is somewhat discredited, so a win over Stanford is crucial to the Irish's case.
But getting a win over the Cardinal will be tough. Not only are the Irish coming off a lackluster performance against an admittedly surprisingly talented Boston College defense, but they suffered two key injuries that could impact this game.
Cornerback KeiVarae Russell will miss six to eight weeks due to a fractured tibia, while C.J. Prosise is doubtful for the game due to a high ankle sprain, per Matt Fortuna of ESPN.
The Cardinal won't be missing their featured back, Christian McCaffrey. The do-it-all sophomore is having a great season and was recently named Pro Football Focus's top college back:
With the Irish coming all the way across the country to play McCaffrey and the Cardinal in a game that will have Heisman implications, expect the running back to go off and be a deciding factor in this one.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
