Biggest Winners and Losers of the MLB Offseason's 1st Month
I don't mean to alarm anyone, but the Major League Baseball offseason is already one month old.
Or just about, anyway. Certainly, enough time has passed for us to look back and take stock of what's happened. What better way to do that than with a list of the biggest winners and losers of the offseason?
We're going to look at four of each, which range from players and teams that have done well to players and teams that haven't done well. And while this list won't really be a countdown of any sort, we can tease that the biggest loser of them all is an entire market.
For now, we'll begin with a winner. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Winner: Players Traded to Contenders
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As we'll discuss later, it's been a slow beginning for the winter's free-agent market. The trade market, on the other hand, has been booming.
And for a lucky few, that's meant a move from a bad team to a good one.
That's definitely true of the winter's two biggest blockbusters: the trade that sent star shortstop Andrelton Simmons from the Atlanta Braves to the Los Angeles Angels and the trade that sent star closer Craig Kimbrel from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. Simmons has gone from a 95-loss team to an 85-win team, and Kimbrel is going from an 88-loss team to a club that was riding a heck of a youth movement by the end of 2015.
"I'm excited. With the history and the fans in Boston, the atmosphere is always awesome every time I've been there," Kimbrel told Ian Browne of MLB.com. "You can feel the history and everything behind it there. To be able to play in front of those fans is going to be a lot of fun."
It's not just Simmons and Kimbrel whose situations have improved. Thanks to other trades, the likes of Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, Jesse Chavez and Rex Brothers should also have chances to play roles on likely contenders in 2016.
Only Chavez's pocketbook stands to benefit, as he's the only player mentioned above who could turn a starring turn on a contender into a free-agent payday next winter. But all things being equal, there's not a player in baseball who won't say it's better to play for a contender than a pretender.
Speaking of which, one team that is trying to avoid becoming one of those is...
Loser: Cleveland Indians
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There have already been a handful of injury developments this winter, and all of them hurt. To name a few examples, there are Devon Travis' shoulder, Albert Pujols' foot and Lance Lynn's elbow.
But of all the injury developments that have cropped up, none hurts quite like Michael Brantley's.
Earlier this month, we learned Brantley had surgery on his right shoulder and will need as many as six months to recover. The Cleveland Indians could therefore be without their star outfielder until May, which is a significant loss even without context.
But the context in this case is important. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported in October, one of Cleveland's primary goals this winter is to bolster its offense. If that was true before Brantley's injury, it's presumably doubly true in the wake of it.
That's going to hurt Cleveland's leverage in either free-agent or trade talks, possibly to a point where the Indians will be forced to pay more than they're comfortable paying to bring another bat aboard.
The worst-case scenario involves complications in Brantley's recovery that delay his return. As Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer noted, that could leave the Tribe no choice but to overpay for a bat.
Of course, Cleveland general manager Chris Antonetti may avoid that by getting creative. You know, sort of like...
Winner: Seattle Mariners
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When Jerry Dipoto agreed to become the general manager of the Seattle Mariners, he was walking into a tough gig. The Mariners clearly needed upgrades but were strapped for both cash and prospects.
But so far, that hasn't stopped Dipoto from making moves.
He kicked things off by swinging some spare parts to the Tampa Bay Rays in a trade that brought back right-hander Nathan Karns. He's no ace, but he was quietly an above-average pitcher in 2015.
After that came a trade with the San Diego Padres for veteran reliever Joaquin Benoit. With a 1.98 ERA since 2013, he's a clear upgrade for a Mariners bullpen that ranked 25th in ERA in 2015.
Then came a trade with the Texas Rangers that brought back center fielder Leonys Martin. His bat is a question mark, but there's no doubting the quality of his defense. For a Mariners club that endured terrible defense in center field in 2015, he's an important addition.
Most recently, the Mariners signed veteran catcher Chris Iannetta to a modest contract. While the club is surely still hoping Mike Zunino is the long-term answer behind the plate, Iannetta should at least solve the club's OBP problem at catcher. After the Mariners got a .205 OBP out of their catchers in 2015, Iannetta's .351 career OBP is a welcome sight.
All told, Dipoto has already made some notable upgrades, and he's done so without giving up anything the Mariners are going to miss.
Meanwhile, a few hundred miles to the south, another GM is doing good work this winter...
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Winner: San Diego Padres
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Yup, we're skipping to another winner. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Padres GM A.J. Preller is also having a good winter.
The difference this time is Preller is making an impact by selling big-name talent rather than buying it. He's only made two notable trades, dealing Benoit to Seattle and Kimbrel to Boston, but he did well in both of them.
In the Benoit trade, Preller jettisoned $7.5 million in salary and landed two prospects in return. In the Kimbrel trade, he jettisoned $25.5 million in salary and landed four prospects in return.
And not just any prospects. MLB.com puts five of the six prospects the Padres have acquired this winter in the club's top 20. Leading the bunch are outfielder Manuel Margot and infielder Javier Guerra, who came from Boston in the Kimbrel trade. Margot is a top-25 prospect, and Guerra is a top-100 prospect, which leads many to conclude that Preller pulled off a bit of highway robbery in that deal.
After Preller tore up his farm system to improve his roster last winter, these are trades he needed to make. And even if he doesn't make another move, he stands to gain even more young talent from this offseason. Because they rejected their qualifying offers, the Padres will gain extra draft picks when Justin Upton and/or Ian Kennedy sign elsewhere.
As for what the Padres are going to do with all this young talent, that's a good question. They could retool just as easily as they could rebuild. We'll see.
But if you want to see a full-on rebuild happening right now, you need only look to...
Loser: Atlanta Braves Fans
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Hey, Atlanta Braves fans. Remember when the Braves blew up their roster last winter and insisted they weren't actually rebuilding?
Yeah, well, compared to where the Braves are today, those now look like the good ol' days.
The Braves have blown up their roster even more. It wasn't unexpected when they shipped center fielder Cameron Maybin to the Detroit Tigers, but dealing Simmons to the Angels was. As David O'Brien wrote at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, that was punch to the gut for Braves fans.
Mind you, there's nothing wrong with these trades. The Braves dumped $9 million by dealing Cameron and also got a couple of young pitchers. They got even better young pitchers in the Simmons trade, including a left-hander in Sean Newcomb whom MLB.com considers Atlanta's new No. 1 prospect.
But while the Braves can't complain, their fans have a right to.
After all, it was somewhat believable when the Braves insisted last winter they weren't rebuilding. With a new ballpark coming in 2017, surely the idea was to pull off a quick rebuild rather than a longer one in the style of the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs.
But now it no longer looks that way. The Braves were a dreadful team in 2015, and now they look even worse heading into 2016. Frankly, it'll be a miracle if they put a contending team on the field in 2017.
It wasn't that long ago that the Braves were an exciting team that won 96 games in 2013. And because they did so with a roster that included plenty of controllable talent—including Simmons, Kimbrel and Evan Gattis—fans have every right to wonder if the Braves really needed to blow things up like they have.
Meanwhile, one team that seems ready to wrap up its rebuild is...
Winner: Minnesota Twins
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Nobody expected much out of the Minnesota Twins in 2015, but they ended up being good at the start and as persistent as a T-1000 throughout the year. After a rough rebuilding phase, they appear to be back.
As if to prove the point, the Twins are now circling the biggest free-agent splash of the young offseason.
Earlier this month, the Twins won exclusive negotiating rights for South Korean slugger Byung-Ho Park with a $12.85 million bid. It'll take considerably more than that to ink him to a contract, of course. But given what he's packing, Park could be worth it and then some.
In his last four seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, the 29-year-old first baseman has put up some huge numbers. He's managed an OPS of at least .950 each year and has gone from 30-homer power in 2012 and 2013 to 50-homer power in the last two seasons.
Granted, the offensive environment in South Korea is far friendlier to hitters than MLB is. But Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs examines Park and sees a power profile that could play in MLB. And when you look at his insane bat speed and raw power, it's hard to argue.
If Park's power does translate, the Twins are going to have a dangerous trio of power bats in him, Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier. Throw in Byron Buxton's immense potential, and they'd have the building blocks for a strong offense.
Unfortunately, it's not all good for South Korean players who are looking to make the jump to MLB...
Loser: Ah-Seop Son
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First, it was Hyun-Jin Ryu, and then it was Jung-Ho Kang. And as soon as Minnesota placed its winning bid on Park, it looked like MLB was ready for a full-on love affair with South Korean players.
The next player poised to benefit was sweet-swinging outfielder Ah-Seop Son. But...yeah, about that.
The Lotte Giants put the 27-year-old up for bids this week, and there was expected to be plenty of interest. Instead, Jeeho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency reported that Son failed to draw even a single bid.
It wouldn't appear to have anything to do with Son's talent. He doesn't have anything even remotely close to Park's power, but he's a career .323 hitter in nine seasons. Even in light of the KBO's supercharged offensive environment, his bat looks like a potential asset.
Instead, the issue may have been Son's true availability. As Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors mused:
"While [Son's] situation is interesting in its own right, there are other factors at play here as well. Lotte controls Son for the 2017 season as well as this one, meaning the team might not have been as willing to let him go. He'll also be eligible for posting again next winter.
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In other words: Maybe it was too soon for Son. And while that doesn't mean his hopes of taking his talents to MLB are dead for good, now he has to hope he doesn't run into any injuries and ineffectiveness before the timing is right.
But while we're on the topic of free agents, the domestic guys aren't doing much better...
Loser: The Free-Agent Market
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Serious question: Do teams or players actually want to participate in free agency?
Anyone? Going once...going twice...Bueller?
It's been a less-than-stellar beginning for the free-agent market. Things began with the market being denied three pretty good talents when Brett Anderson, Colby Rasmus and Matt Wieters became the first three players to ever accept the qualifying offer. The market was denied another when Marco Estrada quickly re-signed with the Toronto Blue Jays for $26 million over two years.
Ever since then, well, not much has happened.
The market has only handed out small one-year contracts worth south of $10 million. To put that in perspective, MLB Trade Rumors' transaction tracker tells us that seven players had signed for over $20 million by this time last year, including big contracts for Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Russell Martin. By this date in 2013, four players had signed for over $20 million. In 2012, there were three.
To be sure, the big contracts are coming. With superstars such as David Price, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Chris Davis up for grabs, the thinking is this might be the greatest class of free agents in baseball history. In the end, teams will spend billions on free agents.
It's just that nobody is in a hurry. And while that's unlikely to negatively impact any teams or any players in a significant way, it sure doesn't make for a fun environment for us.
Because, really, what's the hot-stove season without the big bucks?
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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