NFL Fantasy Football Week 11: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

With just three weeks of the fantasy football regular season left in most leagues, we are truly in the stretch run of the campaign. We need to maximize output at every angle, as many of these late-season matchups are indeed playoff games for managers still fighting for seeding in the standings.

Each week offers new challenges and emerging assets. Can Stevie Johnson of the San Diego Chargers become a valuable receiving maven in place of Keenan Allen? Is Charcandrick West of the Kansas Chiefs prepared to roll all over the Bolts en route to becoming the C.J. Anderson of the 2015 season? This will undoubtedly be another revealing week in the NFL. 

With so many narratives and intriguing angles emerging around the league, please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities, such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries impacting this specific week's market.

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 11 in the comments below. 

Game-Time Decisions: Alshon Jeffery's Status Is Up in the Air

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Each week in the NFL, we witness a rash of injuries influencing the market. We have plenty of injury scenarios to consider for Week 11.

The Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery was a decoy last week in a drubbing of the St. Louis Rams, playing a season-low 54 percent of the team's offensive snaps, per Football Outsiders' snap index. Groin and shoulder ailments kept Jeffery from practicing to finish the week, per ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson, leaving the star wideout questionable heading into an unsavory matchup with a stingy Denver Broncos secondary. As for Jeffery's teammate Matt Forte, Dickerson reported the team's top tailback is questionable, but with the Bears playing again on Thanksgiving, we could see him sit this one out. 

What can we do with Jeffery? We've already witnessed the team use Jeffery as an active decoy, limiting the upside angle if he's active versus cover corners Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. It's a difficult decision to sit a superstar asset when active, but investors in Jeffery should seriously consider worthy alternatives, such as some of the names in our waiver-wire section, given his troubling durability concerns. 

With Sam Bradford and Ryan Mathews both ruled out for the Philadelphia Eagles' home game vs. the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday, per Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer, DeMarco Murray earns increased exposure, while Mark Sanchez is an interesting play for tournaments in daily fantasy. 

Both the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson and the Houston Texans' DeAndre Hopkins were upgraded to probable injury distinctions, per their respective teams Friday, while the Denver Broncos' Emmanuel Sanders is dealing with multiple ailments and remains questionable, per Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.  

Eddie Lacy (groin) returns to action for the Green Bay Packers this week, per Marc Sessler of NFL.com, in what could be a defeating share of meaningful work with he and James Starks. The matchup metrics aren't ideal, and the usage is purely speculative, leaving Lacy on the bench or as a deep flex during this final bye week. 

The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) is again on the probable side of questionable, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, which is just another awesome NFL riddle for us to read. Things are trending toward Lynch being active, but his investors should surely have Thomas Rawls as insurance. 

The San Diego Chargers are banged up, but we can expect Antonio Gates to suit up and earn a worthy workload, while Ladarius Green appears questionable to return, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Cheap daily shares of Stevie Johnson and even Dontrelle Inman remain interesting on the league's most productive passing scheme. 

The Cardinals' receiver depth chart has been afflicted by injury for much of the past month, with John Brown and Michael Floyd currently dinged up and questionable for Sunday night's epic cross-conference meeting with the Bengals. Floyd is deemed a game-time decision, per Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com, while Brown is questionable and would assume an uptick in routes and fantasy upside if Floyd were ruled out. The main issue is timing, as the Sunday prime-time slot limits managers to making early decisions in most cases. With Floyd appearing truly questionable, having early alternatives prepared could prove prudent.

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 11: Seeking Values at Each Position

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Late into the season, as rosters erode and bye weeks prove more prominent, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire. While these certainly aren't stars or consistent plays, this time of the season challenges our ability to adapt to injuries and bye weeks. Let's delve into some of the better bargain buys in the league this weekend.

Quarterback Values 

Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets: You can question his upside, but as evidence of his stable fantasy floor, Fitzpatrick is tied for second in the league with seven games of at least two passing touchdowns this season. The New England Patriots' Tom Brady has at least two passing scores in nine games to lead the position. "Fitz" is available in over 70 percent of ESPN leagues and could produce against an improved, but still middling Houston Texans defense. It's not an ideal week for streaming, opening up interest in Fitzpatrick. 

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills: A low-volume passing agenda has curbed Taylor's fantasy ceiling of late, but efficient returns in the passing game and a meeting with some potential positive game flow with the heavily favored Patriots bode well for the former Baltimore Raven. Here's a translation: Taylor could be forced to put up big numbers to keep pace with the Patriots' top-ranked offense.  

Running Back Bargains

Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: It's not a joke, everyone; it's Joique, the top-15 fantasy back from last season. Left on the wire in over half of ESPN leagues, Bell could earn meaningful early-down work. Even as efficiency escapes his profile, Bell netted 16 touches last week and merits attention in deep and desperate scenarios. 

Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Look, things get ugly around this time of year, offering some value to Powell as he returns to change-of-pace duties for the Jets. In his past two healthy starts, Powell netted 11 receptions combined, something to consider in deep PPR formats. 

Shaun Draughn, San Francisco 49ers: Now this is legitimately scary, but with starting duties and 20 touches in Week 9, Draughn is another desperation asset to consider, despite facing the Seattle Seahawks' stingy front. 

Waiver Wideouts

Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers: While it's a minor note to mention, the Carolina Panthers' Corey Brown is sidelined this week, per Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer. That offers rookie wideout Funchess increased route and snap exposure. With Cam Newton seeking a big outside target, Funchess is a name to watch versus a suspect Washington Redskins secondary.

Dontrelle Inman, San Diego Chargers: The Chargers' Malcom Floyd is ailing with a shoulder injury, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune, opening up increased offensive exposure for Inman as the team's vertical threat. It's a truly boom-or-bust scenario, but the Kansas City Chiefs secondary has been very generous to receivers this season. 

Tight End Streamers

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions: While he's been quiet for a few weeks now, Ebron has established red-zone rapport with Matthew Stafford, and a matchup with the softest defense to tight ends in the league offers rare streaming upside.

Crockett Gillmore, Baltimore Ravens: A depleted receiving corps could lead to Gillmore seeing a meaningful share of targets against a depleted St. Louis Rams front seven and exploitable safeties in coverage. 

For streaming D/ST options, check out our "Streaming of Vegas" section.

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Identifying Fantasy Defenses

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How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 11. 

The New York Jets make for a sound streaming road play, given their status as favorites in a game with an implied point total hovering around 40 points, per Odds Shark. The Jets' sound secondary could feast on the Houston Texans' T.J. Yates, who hasn't started a game since 2011.

The Baltimore Ravens' much-maligned secondary could finally get a break with the St. Louis Rams' subpar passing game heading to town. With short signal-caller Case Keenum behind center, a series of blitzes could create some valuable chaos for this D/ST. 

The Atlanta Falcons are poised as home favorites in a game that is just slightly above the 46.5 threshold, at just 47.5, per Odds Shark. A conservative Indianapolis Colts offense offers a stable floor for the Falcons. 

NFL Week 11: Cold Weather Conditions Can Limit Play Volume

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Brian Burke studied the effects of weather on offensive football production and tendencies for his site, AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com, in 2012. Burke is now an analyst with ESPN, and his study from a few seasons ago offers some evidence that weather can influence game flow and scheme given certain climates.

We find games in New England—projected for 32 degrees by NFLWeather.com—Chicago (26 degrees) and Minnesota (37 degrees) with temperature scenarios to consider. Burke found offenses in environments 40 degrees and below "tilt more toward the run in cold weather, but very slightly. The bigger effect is that there are fewer plays of both types. I suppose more runs means less plays overall because they tend to use more time. Perhaps there are more punts and field-goal attempts because passing effectiveness drops." 

We wouldn't weigh these conditions too heavily as lineup differentiators, given the teams involved are all from outdoor, cold-weather home stadiums, but we will need to allocate more interest to weather as the winter matures and offers more meaningful conditions. Passing efficiency and play volume decreases as the degrees drop, an element worth monitoring into the fantasy playoffs.