6 Key Takeaways from the Early Weeks of MLB Hot Stove Chatter
The World Series ended three weeks ago. Ever since, it's been all quiet on the baseball front.
Unless, of course, you count all the hot stove chatter.
There's been no shortage of that, as we've reached the point where we have to worry about when the folks at MLB Trade Rumors last slept. The rumors and reports have been coming fast and furious enough to literally (and figuratively) spin your head.
What we're here to do is zoom out and look at the chatter from a wide perspective and discuss the key hot stove takeaways of the first weeks of the offseason.
We'll go in order from least interesting to most interesting. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
6. Players Have Gotten the Gist About Qualifying Offers
1 of 6
If the first three years of the program made anything clear, it's that players were choosing to play a dangerous game when rejecting qualifying offers. Sure, a player had to do it to become a free agent, but he risked having his ties to draft-pick compensation destroy his market value.
And yet, not one player dared to accept the offer. Until now.
In the last three winters, a total of 34 qualifying offers were made and subsequently rejected. That trend finally changed this year. A record 20 qualifying offers were handed out, and three brave souls—Brett Anderson, Colby Rasmus and Matt Wieters—became the first players to sign on the dotted line.
To an extent, they were probably just happy to take the raise. The qualifying offer pays out the average of the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, equating to a $15.8 million contract for 2016. That's $5.8 million more than Anderson made in 2015, and nearly twice what Rasmus and Wieters made.
But we can also assume that all three decided to be safe rather than sorry. The first three years saw the qualifying offer system force some players to sign well-below-market deals (Nelson Cruz, Ervin Santana) and others to be passed up entirely (Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales). Rather than risk their markets suffering a similar fate, Anderson, Rasmus and Wieters went for a sure raise.
And because they did, they could help both themselves and others in the long run.
By becoming the first three players to accept the qualifying offer, Anderson, Rasmus and Wieters sent a message that teams can no longer aim for additional draft picks by freely extending qualifying offers under the assumption that they're guaranteed to be rejected. The result could be teams becoming more stingy with qualifying offers. In turn, that could mean more money invested in free agents.
5. MLB's Newest Love Affair: Korean Players
2 of 6
Years ago, the success of Ichiro Suzuki kicked off MLB's love affair with Japanese players.
Now, it appears to be Korea's turn.
The 2013 and 2014 seasons saw Hyun-Jin Ryu prove that a pitcher could make the leap from the Korean Baseball Organization to MLB. This past season, Jung-Ho Kang proved that a position player could also make the leap. As a result, that sound you now hear coming from Korea is the floodgates opening up.
Already on his way to MLB is slugging first baseman Byung-Ho Park, whose exclusive negotiating rights went to the Minnesota Twins for nearly $13 million. Up next is sweet-swinging outfielder Ah-Seop Son, whose own exclusive rights will soon go to the highest bidder.
They're not the only Korean stars positioning themselves for the major leagues. Hyun-Soo Kim, another sweet-swinging outfielder, is an international free agent free to sign with anyone. Same goes for ace reliever Seung-Hwan Oh, who has spent the last two years in Japan after nine seasons in the KBO.
Mind you, there is more to this than just the success of Ryu and Kang. As one executive told Joe Lemire of USA Today, teams are drawn to Korean talent in part because it's one of the few areas where there are no restrictions on spending.
“There’s only so many avenues to acquire players,” the executive said. “With the cap on draft and international (amateur free agents), now you can go over there and acquire big league-ready players, and it doesn’t go against your spending cap.”
Basically: The money has to go somewhere, so why not Korean players?
But don't worry, major league free agents. There should be plenty more for you too. In fact...
4. Warning: Offseason Spending Is Going to Be Huge
3 of 6
Here's a fun fact: Did you know that the record for $100 million free-agent contracts in a single offseason is three? Yup, only three. MLB Trade Rumors says so.
Not for long, though. This offseason is going to take that record and smash it into bits.
We can't say this with 100 percent certainty just yet, as there haven't been enough contracts signed for us to get a sense of what prices on the open market are actually like. But both Jon Heyman of CBS Sports and Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors project there to be a whopping nine $100 million contracts this winter. Even if they're off by one or two, it's still going to be a huge winter for big-money players.
These deals alone would account for over $1 billion in guaranteed dollars, and there'd be plenty more where that came from. Players like Ian Desmond, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen and Dexter Fowler figure to land in the $50-90 million range. And in all, there's a real chance the total amount of money guaranteed to free agents this winter will clear $2 billion by plenty.
At the sound of all this, you're perfectly welcome to be envious. Just don't get annoyed.
While it's true that spending big bucks on free agents has a way of backfiring on the field, you can't fault the players for getting what they can while they can. Especially at a time when, as Nathan Grow of FanGraphs pointed out, the players' share of the league revenues is trending downward. This year's free-agent class could go a long way toward reversing that trend, to the benefit of all players.
But this hot stove season isn't all about the big-money free agents. It's also about the big-ticket trade chips...
.png?w=256)
3. Seemingly Everyone Is Available on the Trade Market
4 of 6
In recent days, word has circulated—mainly from SiriusXM radio host Craig Mish—that the Miami Marlins might be thinking about trading young ace Jose Fernandez. It doesn't seem likely to actually happen, but the rumors themselves are reflective of a larger overall trend:
Pretty much everyone seems to be available on the trade market this winter.
Beyond Fernandez, other aces who have been rumored to be available include Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Carrasco, Shelby Miller and Tyson Ross. There's also a whole host of position players potentially available, including Freddie Freeman, Todd Frazier, Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gonzalez and Matt Kemp. There's even some weight to some of the speculated trade targets, such as Sonny Gray and Matt Harvey.
To some degree, this is just business as usual. As I noted, the short list of true untouchables in the league allows many names to find their way into the trade rumor mill by default.
But there could also be other forces at work. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated touched on how age plays a role in why many free-agent contracts go up in flames. That's one of many reasons youth is in demand in today's MLB, and the trade market is the one place youth can be both bought and sold.
As such, it wouldn't be surprising if this winter's trade market ends up being as active as all the rumors suggest it could be. And indeed, the number of trades already made have gotten things off to a hot start.
And if there's one position in particular that looks destined to rule the trade market, it's...
2. The Trade Market Is Especially Loaded with Ace Relievers
5 of 6
It's already been a good trading season for the relief pitcher brood. The fantastic beast known as Craig Kimbrel can now be found in Boston, and Joaquin Benoit and Francisco Rodriguez have also moved.
But this may just be the start. We ran through an extensive list of big names on the previous slide, but we didn't hit on any of the relievers also potentially available.
The headlining name is 100-mph machine Aroldis Chapman, who C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports is likely to be on the move soon. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, also available are Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, Ken Giles and Shawn Tolleson. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, there's also interest in Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger.
That, friends, is an impressive list of relief aces. As for why it exists, the best explanation seems to be the ol' "sign of the times" thing.
Thanks largely to the Kansas City Royals and their consecutive years of late-inning dominance, a deep and talented bullpen seems to have transitioned from being a luxury to being more of a necessity. For that reason, talented relievers seem to be in high demand.
The open market is not in a position to meet that demand. Darren O'Day is available, but he's really the only true relief ace among this winter's crop of free agents. As such, the deep trade market looks like a case of general managers increasing the supply to match the demand.
And so, we wait for Chapman to join the trade party. While we're at it, we might as well wait for other Cincinnati Reds to go too. Both player and team seem to be part of another trend...
1. There Could Be Some Big Sell-Offs
6 of 6
When assessing teams' plans during the winter, the question we focus on the most is who's going to go for it.
This winter, however, it seems like the question on the opposite side of the spectrum may be just as important: Who's going to blow it up?
The Atlanta Braves sure seem to be on that list. They've already traded Andrelton Simmons and Cameron Maybin, and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports and ESPN.com's Buster Olney tell us that Freeman and Miller may be next.
Then there are the Reds. They haven't moved anyone yet, but Rosecrans has reported that they're willing to listen to offers for everyone. That includes Chapman, Frazier, Jay Bruce and even Joey Votto.
Elsewhere, the above Rosenthal report also says the San Diego Padres are also shopping Ross and Kemp after already moving Benoit and Kimbrel. In Milwaukee, Olney reports that the Brewers could move Lucroy and pretty much anyone else after moving K-Rod. The Colorado Rockies don't have much to offer, but Heyman reports they're willing to capitalize on Carlos Gonzalez's huge bounceback season.
Certainly, it's nothing unusual for an offseason to have big-time sellers. But this seems like a lot, and we may be able to chalk that up to what the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs did this past season. After blowing up their rosters and spending years building from within, they finally reaped the benefits and appear poised to continue doing so for years to come.
We've known for a long time that baseball is a copycat league. This winter, we may find out that even extends to more painful strategies.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
.png?w=480)
