London or Manchester: Which Premier League City Will Go Farthest in Europe?
In the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League, Premier League clubs have compiled a record of 10 wins, three draws and seven losses—serviceable, but hardly stellar.
Manchester City have already qualified for the round of 16. Chelsea need a point or better to advance vs. Porto. Manchester United can top their group with a victory at Wolfsburg, but anything less could mean their elimination. Arsenal need a two-goal margin of victory vs. Olympiakos to qualify for the knockout stages.
Seventy-five percent of England's representation in the world's most prestigious club cup competition await their fate. The avenue for qualification varies in difficulty, but one could back them in each case to get the required result. Arsenal and United on the road, however, might find more trouble than expected.
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Individually, the December 8 and 9 fixtures determine who goes through and who joins the Europa League, but, as a collective, they carry the league's reputation.
Last season was an embarrassment.
Liverpool were eliminated in a group with Basel and Ludogorets. Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal failed to get past the round of 16, contributing to an ever-closing coefficient gap with Italy. A repeat of 2014/15, and the Premier League could find themselves with three Champions League spots come 2017/18.
In a make-or-break scenario, England are depending on two teams from both London and Manchester to maintain their standing in Europe, if not improve it. As seen with Juventus in June, an entire league does not have to flourish when one team takes charge, so which of the four clubs and, in turn, which city, will give the Premier League its best showing this season?
Starting with Manchester, they have the one qualified participant in the current standings.
Manchester City are through but not yet top of their group. This means Manuel Pellegrini's team could be drawn with Madrid, Bayern or Barcelona in the round of 16.
City have been paired with Barca the last two seasons and have not reached the quarter-finals. Surely the Citizens would not be given another titan three years running, but the lottery of drawn ties makes anything possible.
Their cross-town rivals are in an exceedingly tenuous position. Manchester United must beat Wolfsburg in Germany to be guaranteed a position in the knockout rounds; three points would see them take a much-coveted first-place distinction. In United's first match with Wolfsburg, Louis van Gaal won at Old Trafford—a Juan Mata man-of-the-match performance made the difference.
Visiting the Volkswagen Arena, one man cannot be the difference, it must be a team performance. Provided they secure a win, Manchester United could easily make the quarter-finals, as the depth in second-place finishers is not too scary past Paris-Saint Germain and Atletico Madrid.
Once there, however, boys make way for men. This United squad should not be confused for a Sir Alex Ferguson rendition. While defensively sound, they struggle to score goals—without a potent offense or legitimate focal point, one cannot survive against Europe's elite.
Shifting southward, no London club is yet to qualify.
Chelsea seem the most likely to earn a spot. Hosting Jose Mourinho's former club Porto at Stamford Bridge, a draw is enough to qualify, but a win secures first place in Group G.
England's best club in Europe over the past five years, the Blues have largely been holding the flag by themselves. Winning the Champions League in 2011/12, the Europa League in 2012/13 and reaching the UCL semi-finals in 2013/14, no other club has come close to their production. Last season, almost conforming, they lost to beat PSG in the round of 16, even with a man advantage in the second-leg.
Winning the competition is probably their best chance at 2015/16 Champions League duties, similar to 2011/12, as their domestic form has been atrocious. Knowing the carrot, a motivated, carefree west London squad is dangerous.
Mourinho's north London rival, Arsene Wenger, is in the most immediate peril.
His squad, dropping the first two group matches, are fortunate to still be eligible. Were it not for Bayern Munich pummeling Olympiakos and Dynamo Zagreb, the Gunners would be on their way to the Europa League. Mercifully, though, Arsenal are within reasonable striking distance from second place in Group F.
Beating the Greeks 2-0, 3-1 or by any two-goal variant will see them through. The feat is doable, but it should not be expected—they dug themselves a pit and have 90 minutes to get out, Munich's 4-0 battering of Olympiakos proving a shovel.
Supposing Arsenal survive, their record in the knockout stages is far from enviable. In five consecutive seasons they have been eliminated in the round of 16; a second-place finish in their group likely draws them with another perennial heavyweight.
If the question is London or Manchester advancing furthest in the Champions League, the nod must go to Manchester.
While a legitimate temptation exists to choose a motivated Chelsea, they need a result to advance; Manchester City have already overcome the first hurdle and could find themselves group winners if Juventus falter.
Taking Arsenal and Manchester United: In a vacuum, Arsenal would do better in the knockout stages, but one cannot trust the Gunners to qualify, much less win if they do—United are the safer bet.
Thus, in conjunction with City, the Manchesters get the benefit of the doubt, but there is a lingering feeling that Chelsea could ruin proceedings for any European outfit, and Arsenal might possess a miracle, or two, in Greece.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
