Breaking Down the Late Stages of the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals
Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic locked up three semifinal slots at the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals. Meanwhile, two-time major winners Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka have one late Friday date to decide who gets to tag along with their legendary Big Three contemporaries.
Any questions about the power structure of men’s tennis for the last decade? It’s all right here for another encore while everyone else enjoys their time off until 2016.
So it comes down to the weekend for the biggest non-major tournament of the year. There’s winning and there’s misery. Four winners, but only one year-end trophy. Who will be the champion?
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Semifinal: Djokovic vs. Nadal
A couple years ago, this was the biggest rivalry in tennis, and, arguably, of all time, but 2015 has seen world No. 1 Djokovic roar ahead with one of the greatest years in tennis history. The rivalry has cooled. While Djokovic was winning three majors, Nadal was losing to the likes of Fabio Fognini on clay and at the U.S. Open.
Is there anything to suggest that Nadal has closed much of the gap that saw him take a 6-2, 6-2 Djokovic beating last month in the Beijing final? (Unless the past few days have caused you to wake up and rub away what could only be described as a year-long Nadal nightmare.) What does the Spaniard need to do to not only compete, but also to turn the tables on the streaking Serbian?
Nadal blistered Stan Wawrinka in straight sets because the powerful Swiss sputtered shot after short topspin shot outside the lines. He ripped through Andy Murray’s weak serving and punchless exchanges because he rarely had to retrieve defensive shots. Neither of those formulas will work against Djokovic.
For starters, this is the wrong time to play a smarting Djokovic, who no doubt has been steamed at losing to Federer for his first defeat in about three months.
Unless Djokovic is suddenly unable to lay into Nadal’s heavy topspin—which plays into the backhand angles he loves to create—and unless his serving and forehand catch an unforced disease from Wawrinka's locker, he will be in control. The Serbian loves this match-up because Nadal’s bludgeoning attack plays into his baseline rhythm where he is more comfortable than trying to pick up variations of Federer slices and changes of pace.
Nadal will need more depth to keep the Serbian star from teeing off from the corners. He will need to shorten some of those Djokovic angles by hitting in the middle on occasions, sprinkling in slice and creating some in-and-out forehands to Djokovic’s deuce corner. It’s going to require some excellent serving to set up quicker forehand points. He can no longer outlast Djokovic like it’s the 2013 French Open semifinal.
Nadal can win, but it will require a “95-percent or greater” kind of hard-courts level, like the 2013 U.S. Open series victories at Montreal and New York. The good news is that the Spaniard's confidence is growing, and his errors have been shrinking. He’s been able to pick his spots for when he opens up and flattens out set-up shots or winners, backed by his underrated net play.
For Djokovic, the thought of losing to both Federer and Nadal inside of four days, well that last happened five years ago in London before the Serb launched his epic 2011 campaign.
His key is to play in his offensive zone, make Nadal go for too much depth and start missing the baseline. He would love to pounce on short balls and get Nadal scrambling to defensive corners. If so, it will be straight sets for Djokovic and back to the drawing board for Nadal’s 2016 Australian Open.
Prediction: One very competitive set won or narrowly lost by Nadal, but Djokovic finding his gear and pulling away easily in the second half. Djokovic to advance.
Intermission: Wawrinka vs. Murray
A fascinating match, because this is the first time we get these two together since Wawrinka’s straight-sets “upset” of Murray in the 2013 U.S. Open. We’re curious if the Swiss player's baseline power and more recent belief will knock aside the more tactical Scot.
Of note, Murray faces a daunting task of having to defeat Wawrinka, Federer and Djokovic (or Nadal) to win this title. Is he also thinking about rest and training for his Davis Cup final next week? Internally, this has to mean something.
Prediction: Wawrinka has not looked sharp, so give Murray’s adaptability and crowd support the edge to come through.
Semifinal: Federer vs. Murray or Wawrinka
Federer would probably prefer playing Murray in the semifinal. He always has the advantage in dictating play with his superior service game and offensive attack. It’s either Federer winning this matchup or Federer shanking away too many baseline shots.
Last year, Federer destroyed Murray 6-0, 6-1 in London, and while Murray is trying to hold onto his No. 2 ranking and is clearly playing better in 2015, the Swiss Maestro’s (2013-14) switch to a bigger racket has rejuvenated his game by helping him hold up on the baseline as he picks his spots to come in to net. Federer’s game now presents more problems for Murray than a few years ago.
Wawrinka is more worrisome, because his power gives him a puncher’s chance. Last year, Wawrinka had four match points in their semifinal but failed to finish. Federer blitzed his compatriot at the 2015 U.S. Open, and he is a strong favorite when the court surface takes away more of Wawrinka’s slower windup. Of note, this court is not playing as fast as most indoors surfaces, so it could be interesting.
Prediction: Federer to take care of either Murray (two sets) or Wawrinka (three sets).
Championship Final: Djokovic vs. Federer
Who will have the bigger chip on his shoulder? Federer was reportedly ruffled when the media quoted Djokovic as saying that he "just handed him (Federer) the win."
Then again, Djokovic has to be irked with the way the media interpreted his comment. Is it possible that after crediting Federer's great play that Djokovic was more upset about his own poor performance, that his comments were disgust and criticism for his own lack of effort?
Murray might get the No. 2 ranking for 2015, but Federer is the better and more dangerous player for championship matches on faster surfaces. He’s defeated Djokovic three times this year with the creative shot variety that always gives a slightly different look. He has often forced Djokovic to dig deep and pull out another special performance.
Federer's certainly not going to hand Djokovic the title unless he pulls out with a back injury (see the 2014 WTF championship), but the Swiss Maestro's defeat of Djokovic on Tuesday will only rouse up his kingly rival. When the stakes are highest, Djokovic has been physically stronger and mentally tougher. This is when the pressures of holding and breaking serve are most important.
Federer can cruise with fast service games when he is in the zone; it's a beautiful pace-rhythm that can seemingly mesmerize his opponents into quick death. The key is that Federer must serve with awesome variety and effectiveness to set up the rest of his wonderful supporting offense. He cannot hand the Serbian too many second serves in a game, because it will short-circuit his rhythm like a long toweling-off session between points.
When games get stretched, Federer can go through spells of “forgetting” to get to the net or losing confidence that it will work against Djokovic. Her must have a good day with his forehand, at times hitting through the court and often pulling his opponent into uncomfortable spots.
For Djokovic, it will require the kind of mindset he has when facing Nadal—that he cannot hand his rival a single point. It’s his concentration and eyes that tell the story, like the way Kei Nishikori zeroed in on Federer’s second serve and attacked.
Djokovic’s returns and baseline pressure must accumulate to wear Federer down, pound away at his backhand and force the Swiss to be overly precise. It’s his volume of defensive offense that, at his best, allows the world No. 1 to dictate play.
Prediction: It should be a great match, but if it is a fast two-setter, it’s more likely to be Djokovic this time. Federer is a solid underdog but he continues to be a legendary champion who can always work his special magic. If Federer does win, he might grow a full beard for the 2016 Australian Open.
There's a great chance we get a nail-biter. In this case, let’s call it a three-set thriller with Djokovic getting a key break late in the match.
In the end, someone in a nice suit will hand King Novak his fourth straight WTF trophy, bettering the "three-peats" from Ivan Lendl (1985-87) and Ilie Nastase (1971-73). It will be a feat for the ages and the crown jewel to his 2015 reign.
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