Early Predictions for 2016's Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young Races
There wasn't much in the way of surprises when it came to the recipients of baseball's major individual awards in 2015—aside from a National League Cy Young Award race that could have gone to either Los Angeles' Zack Greinke or Chicago's Jake Arrieta, the winners were who we thought they'd be.
So while it's incredibly early, what better time to take a look at how the races for the 2016 season might look?
While there are always three finalists for every award, we'll look at a five-player field of contenders for the three big ones—the Cy Young, Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year awards—in each league and predict which of those five players will walk away with the hardware.
Who stands to win big in 2016? Let's take a look.
Free Agents Who Will Be Part of MVP and Cy Young Award Races
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There are a number of high-profile free agents who could find themselves in the thick of the award races in either league, but since we don't yet know which league they'll be playing in, it was impossible to include them in the predictions.
That said, it'd be foolish not to mention them, for they will be factors.
Cy Young Contenders
- RHP Johnny Cueto
- RHP Zack Greinke
- LHP David Price
- RHP Jordan Zimmermann
Most Valuable Player Contenders
- OF Yoenis Cespedes
- 1B/OF Chris Davis
- OF Jason Heyward
- OF Justin Upton
AL Rookie of the Year
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Led by Houston's Carlos Correa, Cleveland's Francisco Lindor and Minnesota's Miguel Sano, the American League's rookie class in 2015 set the bar incredibly high for those that follow. But there's no shortage of talent in the 2016 class, one that includes some big boppers and impressive hurlers.
The Field of Five
OF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins: We've yet to see what a healthy Buxton is capable of, as injuries have plagued him at every level he's played. With a clear path to being Minnesota's everyday center fielder in 2016, we'll finally get to see what all the hype is about.
3B/OF Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: Gallo has Ruthian power but struggled to make consistent contact against major league pitching, striking out more than 46 percent of the time. He'll make the necessary adjustments to become a reliable force in the middle of Texas' lineup.
1B A.J. Reed, Houston Astros: He crushed minor league pitching to the tune of a .340/.432/.612 triple-slash line with 34 home runs and 127 RBI over 135 games, reaching Double-A in his first full professional season. He's Houston's best option at first base and will break camp with the club.
LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays: Went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 163 strikeouts over 134 innings across three minor league levels in 2015. Tampa Bay will find a spot for him in 2016, where he'll pair with Chris Archer to give the Rays a devastating combination atop the rotation.
1B Christian Walker, Baltimore Orioles: The heir apparent to Chris Davis in Baltimore, the power in Walker's right-handed swing could do some serious damage over a full season in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Predicted Winner: Buxton
NL Rookie of the Year
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For as impressive as the American League's crop of rookies was in 2015, the National League's class was deeper and more impressive, with Chicago's Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber and New York's Noah Syndergaard becoming household names and serving as key contributors on playoff clubs.
The 2016 crop may not be quite as deep in impact bats, but what they lack at the plate they more than make up for on the mound, where a trio of future aces will get their first crack at regular work.
The Field of Five
RHP Lucas Giolito, Washington Nationals: Arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, Giolito uses three above-average offerings, including a nasty 12-to-6 curveball, to frustrate the opposition. He could surpass Stephen Strasburg as the No. 2 starter in Washington before long.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates: Pitched to a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across three minor league levels with 136 strikeouts in 109.1 innings of work. Too talented to keep on the farm, he's the logical replacement for the retiring A.J. Burnett in Pittsburgh's rotation.
LHP Steven Matz, New York Mets: The big league experience Matz got in 2015, both during the regular season and in the playoffs, will be invaluable to his continued development in 2016. Has all the makings of a future ace.
SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers: Baseball's best prospect didn't disappoint upon arriving in the big leagues, hitting .337/.425/.561 with 13 extra-base hits (four home runs) and 17 RBI in only 27 games for the Dodgers.
SS Trea Turner, Washington Nationals: A future leadoff hitter thanks to his penchant for getting on base and outrageous speed, Turner will get regular playing time as Ian Desmond's replacement in Washington.
Predicted Winner: Seager
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AL Cy Young Award
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With all due respect to Houston's Dallas Keuchel and Cleveland's Corey Kluber, neither of the American League's most recent Cy Young Award winners was really considered a serious contender heading into the season they took home the hardware.
While it wouldn't be a shock if someone seemingly came out of nowhere to win the award in 2016, it's hard to bet against any of the following aces.
The Field of Five
RHP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays: His postseason analysis as a broadcaster overshadowed his regular-season dominance on the mound, where he pitched to a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, fanning 252 batters over 212 innings.
RHP Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: Gray doesn't post gaudy strikeout numbers, averaging less than eight per nine innings of work for his career, but what he lacks in whiffability he makes up for with a nasty arsenal that hitters have a tough time making solid contact against.
RHP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Despite some serious mileage on his arm, Felix remains the King and a legitimate contender for the crown.
LHP Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros: The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has gotten better in each of his four major league seasons. If he can equal—or improve—on his numbers in 2015 (20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), we might have our first back-to-back winner in the AL since Pedro Martinez (1999, 2000).
LHP Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox: Sale might have the filthiest stuff out of anyone on this list, having led the AL in strikeouts (274) and K/BB ratio (6.52), but is going to need a stronger supporting cast in Chicago to get over the hump and take home his first award.
Predicted Winner: Archer
NL Cy Young Award
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The National League is deep in legitimate contenders for the Cy Young Award. So deep that I had to leave off the likes of New York's Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey, St. Louis' Adam Wainwright and a slew of others to get down to a five-player field.
While you can make a strong case for any of the hurlers listed above, it's awfully hard to argue against any of the names that follow.
The Field of Five
RHP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs: Remember when Arrieta was a bust in Baltimore? His shiny new Cy Young Award only solidifies what many suspected in 2013—the trade that sent Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman to the Orioles for Arrieta and Pedro Strop is one of the most lopsided in recent history.
RHP Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants: It's an even year, which means San Francisco is due to go on one of its otherworldly runs to a World Series crown. Bumgarner will lead the way on the hill, looking to take home his first Cy Young Award after three consecutive top-10 finishes in the voting.
RHP Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: As Bleacher Report's Danny Knobler wrote in October, Cole is often overlooked as one of the premier starters in baseball, but he shouldn't be. Garnered support in both the Cy Young and MVP races last season.
LHP Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: The three-time Cy Young Award winner remains the best pitcher in baseball. With five consecutive top-three finishes in the voting, he is a threat to win his fourth award on a yearly basis.
RHP Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals: His first season in Washington was a rousing success, as Scherzer set new career bests in ERA (2.79), WHIP (0.92), innings pitched (228.2), walks (34) and strikeouts (276). His encore performance could be even better.
Predicted Winner: Scherzer
AL Most Valuable Player
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A pair of streaks that nobody in Toronto was celebrating came to an end in 2015: The team's 22-year absence from the playoffs—and the nearly three decades that passed between a Blue Jay being named the American League's Most Valuable Player.
Josh Donaldson, this year's winner, had yet to celebrate his second birthday when George Bell took home the honor in 1987. While Donaldson will be looking to make it two in a row in 2016, he's going to face some stiff competition.
The Field of Five
1B Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: It'd be easy to write off Cabrera as a serious contender, seeing as how he's coming off an injury-plagued season and is on the wrong side of 30. But Miggy led the AL in batting average (.338) and on-base percentage (.440) despite being limited to 119 games. A healthy Cabrera remains a serious threat to win his third AL MVP Award.
OF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals: Since becoming an everyday player in 2013, Cain's performance has steadily improved and, entering his walk year, the best may be yet to come. His combination of power, speed and excellent defense at a premium position makes him a threat.
SS Carlos Correa, Houston Astros: The reigning AL Rookie of the Year hit .279 with 22 home runs, 14 stolen bases and a .857 OPS in only 99 games. The numbers he puts up over a full season could be extraordinary.
3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays: Only two players in the past 30 years have won back-to-back AL MVP Awards—Frank Thomas (1993 and 1994) and Cabrera (2012 and 2013). Donaldson's power and premier defense make him a threat to become the third.
OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: A three-time runner-up and one-time winner (2014), Trout is—and will continue to be—a legitimate threat to take home the award for the foreseeable future.
Predicted Winner: Correa
NL Most Valuable Player
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Bryce Harper did to the rest of the field in the race for National League Most Valuable Player what he routinely did to pitches in the zone in 2015—he crushed it, becoming the youngest unanimous MVP selection in baseball history.
If he can stay healthy—2015 was the first time in his career that he played in more than 140 games—it's hard to bet against the 23-year-old delivering a repeat performance in 2016. But there are four other players who will have something to say about his chances.
The Field of Five
3B Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs: Prodigious power in the middle of a rapidly improving lineup makes Bryant a threat. If he can cut down on his MLB-leading 199 strikeouts and bump his batting average closer to .300, his odds of winning would improve.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks: He does everything you could possibly want in a MVP—hits for average and power, gets on base consistently, steals bases and plays quality defense. Playing in Arizona and not a bigger market may be his biggest obstacle to overcome.
OF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: He led baseball in home runs (42), on-base percentage (.460), slugging percentage (.649), OPS (1.109) and runs scored (118) and is still years away from his prime.
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: Had his worst season in years, hitting .292 with a .889 OPS, the first time he's failed to hit .300 or post an OPS above .900 since 2011. It's not hard to envision him getting back to his .300/.900 ways.
C Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants: Always a contender, you can't help but wonder if his chances—and production—would be helped if he moved out from behind the plate.
Predicted Winner: Harper
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