Updating the Hottest Questions of the 2015-16 MLB Offseason, Week 2
It may only be the second week of the MLB offseason, but there are plenty of intriguing storylines already developing among baseball circles. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at the hottest questions that have developed over the course of November.
There's always plenty to talk about with regards to an MLB offseason. Where will prized free agents land? What trends are developing on the trade market? Which teams are being aggressive, and which ones are in sell mode?
We'll touch on storylines involving each of those questions. How deep is the market for Jeff Samardzija after a poor 2015? What's the market like for teams in need of a closer? How are the Cleveland Indians planning on adding offense? And what in the world is going on with Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins?
Some of these questions will have a swift resolution in the coming weeks, while others will take longer to answer. Give us your opinion on how all these situations will shake out in the comments section below.
Every offseason is different, and the current one will change MLB's landscape in 2016. Let's dive into some issues that have defined the winter thus far.
What's the Market Like for Jeff Samardzija?
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There are no shortage of starting pitchers on the free-agent market, but Jeff Samardzija has become an attractive target for several different teams.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors believes that up to 18 teams could be interested in Samardzija's services.
"Though the draft pick loss will be an issue for some, a potential list of suitors for Samardzija includes the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Dodgers and Giants," said Dierkes.
Such interest may seem odd after Samardzija's worst season as a pro. The right-hander saw a severe dip in strikeouts and ground-ball rate, which ultimately led to a 4.96 ERA.
But Samardzija's troubles in 2015 seemed to be mechanical, which is better than the alternative. He ranked 12th in MLB in fastball velocity, and there was no drastic change in his usage rates—Samardzija threw four pitches more than 400 times.
Samardzija did struggle with location, particularly with his secondary pitches. The 30-year-old threw his splitter in the strike zone 36 percent of the time this season, which is up significantly from a 24 percent mark in 2014.
Those numbers show that Samardzija had trouble keeping his out-pitch down in the zone in 2015. After making some adjustments late in the season, he allowed just two earned runs in 16 innings to finish the campaign on a positive note.
At worst, Samardzija is a mid-rotation innings-eater. But if his late-season improvements are here to stay, there's plenty of reason to believe he can return to his previous best. Because of that low floor and high ceiling, Samardzija has become one of the more intriguing free agents in this class.
What's the Latest on the Cleveland Indians Acquiring Offensive Upgrades?
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After coming up just short in the last two seasons, the Cleveland Indians should be on the cusp of qualifying for the postseason in 2016.
There's just one problem—Cleveland has one of the worst offenses in the American League. The Tribe scored 669 runs in 2015, which put them 11th out of 15 AL squads. Cleveland's lack of punch is a shame considering its rotation finished second in the AL in ERA and topped MLB in strikeouts per nine innings.
Because of that discrepancy in run production versus run prevention, Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reported this week that the Indians might be willing to part with an MLB-ready hurler to upgrade their offense, particularly in the outfield:
"The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays are among the teams to discuss trade possibilities with the Indians this offseason, according to major-league sources. The general framework of those deals would involve Cleveland trading from its estimable rotation depth to acquire an everyday outfielder.
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It remains uncertain whom that pitcher would be. 2014 AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber is unlikely to be dealt after recently signing a contract extension, but Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Cody Anderson, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin could all be used as currency to acquire an offensive upgrade or two.
Of course, there's no guarantee that removing an established pitcher in favor of a proven hitter will work. Matthew Kory at FanGraphs recently wrote that the Indians should look into trading closer Cody Allen instead of a starter. Kory reasons that it's easier to find hard-throwing relievers in today's MLB than it is to develop dependable starters.
"While it’s not easy to find elite relievers, it’s much easier to make do at the back of the bullpen than it is to go without a quality third starter," he said.
However the Indians decide to do it, their offense must be addressed this winter if the club wants to return to the postseason for the first time since 2013. Trading from a surplus of talented hurlers may be the only way the cash-strapped organization can achieve that.
What's the Market Like for Closers?
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One of the more interesting developments of the offseason is the expansive market for closers.
The Boston Red Sox proved that point by trading for All-Star Craig Kimbrel earlier this month. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Kimbrel won't be the only late-inning option to be dealt this winter.
"While the relief market is unusually thin in an otherwise star-studded free-agent market, conversely, the trade market for closers is heating up like never before," said Heyman.
Heyman mentions Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, Shawn Tolleson, Ken Giles and potentially one of Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen have all been tied to deals already this winter.
In Chapman's case, he's as good as gone. According to C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds are hoping to get a deal done involving Chapman before the winter meetings. Fox Sports has reported significant interest in the flame-throwing left-hander.
"The market for Chapman should be plentiful," it said. "There are teams with immediate needs at closer, but teams looking to build a 'superpen' could certainly be vying for Chapman's services."
Chapman may be the cream of the crop, but there are several other options out there for teams with holes in the ninth inning. B/R's own Scott Miller recently wrote about the conundrum that executives face with closers in today's MLB:
"Many of the new wave of young executives running clubs—the Dodgers' Andrew Friedman, the Astros' Jeff Luhnow, the Cubs' Theo Epstein, the Rangers' Jon Daniels and the Phillies' Matt Klentak among them—come with a more forward view, and part of that view often is that closers are interchangeable. And that while they are important, they also are disposable and replaceable.
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With limited free-agent hurlers on the market, teams are looking to improve their bullpens through trades. Fortunately for several needy teams, there are multiple impact arms still available.
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Will the Atlanta Braves Continue to Trade Major League Assets?
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After trading defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons earlier this month, Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella has had to answer questions regarding the future of the team's other major league-ready assets.
After several rumors emerged regarding first baseman Freddie Freeman, Coppolella emphatically stated that Freeman wouldn't follow Simmons, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Craig Kimbrel out of Atlanta.
“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman," Coppolella told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening."
The rumors haven't stopped there, though. Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports reported this week that the Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks had discussions involving right-hander Shelby Miller. Rosenthal later clarified that Atlanta had asked for Arizona center fielder A.J. Pollock in a potential deal.
Acquiring the six-plus-win Pollock may have been wishful thinking on the part of Coppolella, but it proves he's looking for ways to add offense to a club that finished with the fewest runs scored in MLB this past season. Trading away from a surplus of young starters seems like the way to do that.
During this extensive reclamation project that began last winter, the Braves have added young arm after young arm. Atlanta has 13 pitchers in its top 20 prospects, according to MLB.com. That doesn't even consider the likes of Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Atlanta has stockpiled young pitching as currency for potential trades. That's why rumors like ESPN's Buster Olney's latest report—the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have checked in on Miller's availability—won't go away anytime soon.
Coppolella will have to deal with rumors surrounding his team for the rest of the winter. Some may have legs, while others won't, but don't expect Atlanta to pass up any deal that would expedite the rebuild process.
What's Going on with Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins?
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At just 23, Jose Fernandez is already one the game's top young pitchers. More importantly, he's a key attraction capable of putting fans in the seats for the Miami Marlins.
But Fernandez's name has been linked to various trade reports already this winter. Miami radio show host Andy Slater said that the basis of those rumors is due to Miami growing weary of Fernandez's attitude.
"As I reported last week and on Tuesday, the Marlins front office is not happy with Fernandez's attitude. "Jose talks to management like they are children," another player source told me. I've now learned, it goes beyond that.
On at least two occasions in the Marlins clubhouse this season, Fernandez approached [Miami president of baseball operations Michael] Hill --- according to multiple player sources --- and openly said "when are you going to trade me?"
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Since then, Slater has backtracked on his initial stance. Yet it hints at a troubling dynamic between the Marlins and Fernandez. That's not ideal considering Scott Boras' ominous, Mr. Moneybags-like shadow is closely monitoring the situation.
On the field, Fernandez has proven he's untradeable. In 47 career starts, the right-hander has a 2.40 ERA and has struck out over 29 percent of the batters he's faced.
For now, Miami has seemingly decided that Fernandez's talent is an asset worth keeping around. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported that "two highly placed sources" told him that Fernandez is "not being shopped" at this time.
Still, where there is smoke, there is fire. These rumors may not have legs now, but the relationship between Fernandez and the Marlins is something to watch over the coming months.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Nov. 20.
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