Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 2's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Buckle up, folks. For if the first two weeks of baseball's offseason are any indication, the Hot Stove League is going to take us on a long, strange trip this winter.
Trades, and not free-agent signings, have dominated both the rumor mill and transaction sheets, which is certainly surprising when you consider the slew of high-profile names that are currently unsigned. Then again, we are still very early in the offseason. Things are sure to pick up from here on both fronts.
Has the trade of one elite closer changed the thinking of a team (or teams) looking to unload its own All-Star option in the ninth inning? Will a postseason hero deliver the only team he's ever known a hometown discount? Are budget constraints forcing a contender's hand?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Fact: The Pirates Will Trade Neil Walker
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Neil Walker's days in Pittsburgh are numbered, as the Pirates have been fielding offers on the veteran second baseman (and the rest of their 2017 free agents), according to ESPN's Jayson Stark.
We pegged Walker as an obvious trade candidate after the Pirates were eliminated from the playoffs, as his salary figures to eclipse the $10 million mark in his final year of arbitration eligibility, a steep price tag for a small-market club like Pittsburgh.
An industry source told the Baltimore Sun's Eduardo A. Encina that talks between the Orioles and Pirates about a potential Walker deal have been "off and on," with Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reporting Baltimore found Pittsburgh's initial asking price, believed to be young pitching, to be too high.
But it's still early in the offseason, and the Pirates are going to have an infield logjam once Jung Ho Kang's surgically repaired left knee is back to normal. General manager Neil Huntington knows that, and it's why he doesn't believe the Pirates have to keep Walker around while Kang recuperates.
“I think people have tied them more closely together than maybe we will tie them together,” Huntington told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, adding that he believes Kang will be back sometime early in the season, if not before Opening Day.
Whether it's prospect Alen Hanson, utility infielder Pedro Florimon or someone who's not currently with the organization, someone other than Walker will be manning the keystone in Pittsburgh on Opening Day 2016.
Fiction: Atlanta Won't Consider Trading Freddie Freeman
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Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella wants to set the record straight.
“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman," he told USA Today's Bob Nightengale. "We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening."
Here's hoping Coppolella is a southpaw.
Executives from three different teams told Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal that the Braves have indeed been shopping Freeman, who has roughly $120 million coming to him through 2021. Three. Different. Teams. That's a lot of teams—and a lot of sources. Which makes it less of a rumor—and more of a fact.
You've got better odds of being offered a $120 million contract by a major league team than for three of them to spend time conspiring against the Braves by putting out false information. The more likely scenario is that Coppolella is simply negotiating through the media, which happens all the time.
Maybe one of the teams he's already spoken with will get the message and re-engage Atlanta with a better offer. Maybe not. Atlanta certainly doesn't have to trade the 26-year-old. But if the Braves get the right offer, they'll trade Freeman.
Everyone has a price.
Fact: Cincinnati Is Feeling the Pressure to Move Aroldis Chapman
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It's no secret that Cincinnati has been fielding offers on All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman—those rumors date back to July's non-waiver trade deadline. But there was no real sense of urgency for the Reds to get a deal done at that point.
After watching San Diego land an impressive four-prospect package from Boston in exchange for Craig Kimbrel, though, the Reds are starting to feel some pressure to get a deal done.
“Boston was probably a player in it, we talked to them, but we didn’t get close to anything,” Reds GM Walt Jocketty told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “We’ve been talking to clubs, but I don’t think there’s anything that’s close. Hopefully we get something done with somebody before the winter meetings. We’d like to get moving on some things.”
If you read between the lines, the Reds want to get a deal done before another potential suitor finds its ninth-inning answer elsewhere. It's not as if Chapman is the only option available, after all.
ESPN's Jayson Stark heard from multiple clubs that Philadelphia is expected to trade up-and-coming closer Ken Giles, while an executive from another team told Stark he's convinced the New York Yankees will trade Andrew Miller. There are also free agents, like Joakim Soria, available to the highest bidder.
The Reds may ultimately have to take back less than they originally hoped for in order to facilitate a deal, but clearly, they recognize that heading into the 2016 season with Chapman isn't a viable option.
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Fiction: Someone Will Meet Darren O'Day's Asking Price
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Over the past four years, few middle relievers have been as consistent—or as dominant—as Darren O'Day. Of the 15 pitchers who have made at least 270 appearances since 2011, none have posted a lower ERA (1.92) or WHIP (0.94) than the 33-year-old.
Now he's looking to cash in on that success, with Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reporting that O'Day wants a four-year deal in the $28 million to $36 million range.
It's not unheard of for a pitcher who's never been a team's primary closer to land such a pact. We need only think back to last winter, when his former bullpen mate Andrew Miller did just that, signing a four-year, $36 million deal with the New York Yankees.
But Miller signed his deal as he entered his age-30 season; O'Day will celebrate his 34th birthday next October. Dominant as he's been, no team is going to be comfortable paying a non-closer $9 million a year into his late 30s.
O'Day is going to have to budge on either the term or value of his next deal before he finds a new home.
Fact: Miami Would Trade Jose Fernandez
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Sirius/XM's Craig Mish tweeted out that there's growing sentiment around the game and in Miami that the Marlins will trade Jose Fernandez this winter, go so far as to put the odds of a deal "much higher" than 50 percent.
Shocking? Yes. Surprising? Not so much when you consider how the Marlins have done things during Jeffrey Loria's reign as owner. From fire sales to record-setting contracts to building a massive stadium in the middle of a residential neighborhood with taxpayer money, Loria does what he wants, when he wants.
Reason be damned.
So it's entirely possible that the Marlins will look to move their 23-year-old ace. With three years of team control left and what will be a very reasonable salary in 2016—his first arbitration-eligible season—you'd better believe that teams will be lining up to try and pry Fernandez loose.
A team would likely have to gut its farm system—we're talking at least three or four of a team's top prospects, assuming Miami is looking for young, inexpensive talent—but Fernandez is one of the few arms in baseball that's worth the asking price.
Fiction: Daniel Murphy Would Give the Mets a Hometown Discount
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Money isn't everything to everyone. We've seen players sign team-friendly deals—or take less than many believe they could have gotten on the open market—to stay with a team they enjoy playing with, in a comfortable situation.
Could Daniel Murphy be the next player to travel down that path?
"The Mets are expected to make a legitimate bid for the free-agent infielder," wrote ESPN.com's Adam Rubin. "And there is a belief within the organization that Murphy might consider the Mets even if they are not the highest bidder because he has been a member of the organization for his entire professional career and appeared to enjoy his time."
But Murphy's value will never be higher than it is right now, and he'd be foolish to not capitalize on it. Versatile enough to play multiple positions and a consistent, reliable presence at the plate, he's a younger version of Ben Zobrist.
As Newsday's Marc Carig pointed out, Murphy let it be known throughout the regular season that he was open to talking to the Mets about an extension. The team opted not to take him up on it. Why in the world would he give the Mets a break when they didn't even explore the possibility of locking him up?
He wouldn't. He shouldn't. And he won't.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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