
Potential NFL Playoff Teams with Biggest Vulnerabilities
The race to the 2015 NFL playoffs is heating up, but there is still an air of mystery around which teams actually have the talent to win a Super Bowl.
Though they are still in control of their division, the Cincinnati Bengals suffered a loss and fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 10. This leaves us with two undefeated teams—the New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers.
Even with a perfect record, though, no team is actually perfect (just ask the 2007 Patriots). Even the best NFL teams are going to have weaknesses that can be exploited. Some flaws just stand out more than others.
We're going to look at the potential 2015 NFL playoff teams with the most glaring weaknesses. Specifically, we'll be looking at teams that would be playoff-bound if the season ended today and who have had some major holes poked in their armor over the past few weeks.
Do you think another team deserves to be on our list? Feel free to let us know in the comments section.
New York Giants
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The New York Giants are in control of the NFC East and, if they continue on their current path, should at least have an opportunity to host a playoff game. This is a good thing because, as the team showed last week against the New England Patriots, the Giants can play some pretty good football at home.
The bad news is that the Giants are likely to play a team such as the Green Bay Packers or Atlanta Falcons in the Wild Card Round. This is an issue because both the Packers and the Falcons generally boast productive passing attack and pass defense is New York's single biggest weakness.
Pro Football Focus rates the Giants 28th overall in pass coverage and 25th overall in pass rush. Statistically, New York is ranked dead-last in pass defense, with an average of 309.9 yards per game allowed.
At no time has this flaw been more glaring than in Week 8, when the Giants surrendered 505 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns to New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees.
When your team puts 49 points on the board, as the Giants did in Week 8, it should be able to win. New York didn't.
Now, the pass rush does seem to have improved since the return of Jason Pierre-Paul, and the team did do a decent job of pressuring Patriots quarterback Tom Brady this past week. However, Brady still passed for 334 yards and managed to lead a game-winning drive when he needed it most.
Could the Giants stop Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan from delivering a game-winning drive in the playoffs if necessary? In New York's current state, it doesn't seem likely, and that is a flaw the team has to fix before the postseason.
Denver Broncos
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This one shouldn't be a major surprise because the Denver Broncos have been getting subpar play out of quarterback Peyton Manning all season long. Though this past week was a career worst for the future Hall of Famer (5-of-20 for 35 yards and five interceptions), his performances have hurt the team just about every single week.
For the season, Manning has completed nearly 60 percent of his passes but is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass and has tossed 17 interceptions to go with only nine touchdowns.
Now Manning is out of the picture completely for the immediate future. He has a partially torn plantar fascia in his foot and, according to Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com, will be replaced by Brock Osweiler in the starting lineup until healthy.
This means that the suddenly slumping Broncos head toward the postseason with a relative unknown under center. Perhaps a bigger issue, though, is the fact that a defense that had largely been responsible for Denver's winning has been somewhat exposed recently.
The Indianapolis Colts dropped 465 yards of offense and 27 points on Denver in Week 9 largely through the use of running plays and opportunistic strikes to receiver T.Y. Hilton. The Kansas City Chiefs put up 29 points and produced a handful of explosive plays against Denver last week.
Denver's defense is still very good, of course. It is rated first overall by Pro Football Focus. However, relatively average teams have beaten the Broncos over the past couple of weeks, which is going to cause Denver's intimidation factor to dissipate some.
Turnovers have played a factor in Denver's losses, of course. If Osweiler can avoid making them or Manning can come back and do the same, then this team will still be a tough out. Forcing turnovers, however, has been equally vital to Denver's wins. The team has forced only one over the past two games.
If teams like the Colts and the Chiefs can beat the Broncos by playing smart football and not turning it over, how will Denver fare against the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots in the postseason?
Pittsburgh Steelers
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We should know from past experience that the Pittsburgh Steelers can be a dangerous team once they get into the postseason. With this offense, this year's team could be especially dangerous.
Despite losing running back Le'Veon Bell for the year to a torn MCL, the Steelers boast one of the most threatening offenses in the entire league. Pro Football Focus rates the Steelers seventh overall offensively. In terms of yardage, Pittsburgh is ranked sixth (384.9 yards per game).
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is so talented that he came off the bench in Week 10 and produced a 22-of-33, 379-yard and three-touchdown performance—all with a sprained foot.
The sprain was bad enough that NFL Media's Gregg Rosenthal initially reported that Roethlisberger would likely miss "at least a few weeks."
If Roethlisberger can play injured and slice up a defense with the talent he has around him, the Steelers should be able to go toe-to-toe with any offense in the AFC playoffs. The problem for Pittsburgh is that engaging in a shootout might be the only way it can win a postseason game.
This is because the Steelers secondary has been playing like one of the worst in the league.
Despite having a pass rush that is on pace to produce 45 sacks on the season, the Steelers have still been allowing opposing passers to rack up yards at an alarming rate. The team ranks 27th in pass defense, with 278.4 yards per game allowed through the air.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Steelers dead-last in pass coverage.
This could prove to be a major issue for the Steelers, as Pittsburgh will probably face the likes of Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in the postseason.
Indianapolis Colts
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Speaking of the Colts, Indianapolis is another team that you probably won't be surprised to see on this list. In fact, the Colts are really the most obvious example of a flawed potential playoff team was have seen this year.
At 4-5, the Colts don't even possess a winning record. They also announced that starting quarterback Andrew Luck could be out for up to six weeks with a lacerated kidney and an abdominal tear.
This means the AFC South-leading Colts will spend the next few games with 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck under center. Yet, this isn't the real reason for concern in Indianapolis—Hasselbeck has gone 2-0 as a starter this season.
The concerning issue for Indianapolis—like Denver—is an alarming number of turnovers. The Colts lost three straight games before beating Denver and committed multiple turnovers in each of them. In fact, they have had multiple turnovers in every loss except the Week 6 loss to New England and have had multiple turnovers in two of their four wins.
One might argue that the Colts are actually better with Hasselbeck at quarterback than with the Luck we have seen this year, who has been responsible for 13 of the team's turnovers. As it stands, the Colts are minus-seven in turnover differential for the season.
“I think as a unit, we’re frustrated and I’m frustrated with myself. Some egregious turnovers," Luck said after the team's Week 7 loss to the New Orleans Saints, per Phillip B. Wilson of Scout.com.
The Saints, by the way, have the league's 32nd-ranked defense.
A weak defense is another issue for the Colts—one that compounds the turnover problem. Pro Football Focus rates Indianapolis 22nd overall defensively. This Colts defense might not exactly be horrible, but it isn't good enough to overcome constant gifts to the other team.
The good news is that by replacing former offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton with Rob Chudzinski, the team may fix some of the offensive issues by playoff time.
New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots are one of the two undefeated teams left in the NFL, and they might just be the deepest and most well-coached team in the league.
However, the Patriots still have one issue that could come back to haunt them come playoff time—injuries.
New England lost some key players earlier in the season and still looked strong. However, playing against the Giants without offensive linemen Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon allowed the New York defense to put pressure on Tom Brady in a way it hadn't done all season.
Brady was sacked three times, fumbled twice and threw just his third interception of the season. He nearly threw another interception that would have sealed the game for New York.
Before that game, the Giants had logged a mere six sacks.
The Patriots are vulnerable to line issues—a lot of teams are. However, a bigger issue could be that New England has lost two of its biggest offensive weapons in consecutive weeks.
Running back Dion Lewis suffered a torn ACL in Week 10 and was placed on injured reserve. Wide receiver Julian Edelman suffered a broken foot against the Giants and underwent surgery. According to NFL Media's Albert Breer, Edelman's recovery time is likely six to eight weeks.
According to ESPN Stats and Information, those two injured players have accounted for 39 percent of the team's receptions and 34 percent of the scrimmage yards this season.
The Patriots are usually good about plugging in the next man, but this could be a different story. If teams can hit the Patriots before the roster is fully adjusted (the Broncos play them in Week 12), then New England could wind up traveling to Denver or Cincinnati at some point in the postseason.
Cincinnati and Denver each won home games against the Patriots in 2013.
Green Bay Packers
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Through their first six games of the 2015 season, the Green Bay Packers looked like a clear-cut choice to be a Super Bowl contender. Before the team's Week 7 bye, they were beating opponents by an average of 10.5 points per game.
All throughout, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was playing like a legitimate MVP candidate.
After the bye, however, the Packers have looked like a totally different team. They have dropped all three games since, and Rodgers has been sacked 11 times during the stretch (he was sacked the same 11 times in the six previous games).
Green Bay has gone from averaging 27.3 points per game before the bye to averaging 18.3 afterward.
The problem is that teams have stopped showing respect for Green Bay's ability to create offensive mismatches. A subpar running game (ranked 16th, averaging 108.0 yards per game) is part of the problem, as is missing the downfield threat of Jordy Nelson.
Nelson, you probably remember, suffered a torn ACL before the start of the season.
Opposing defenses are jamming Green Bay receivers, playing tight coverage and daring someone to open up for Rodgers downfield. This is a tactic that teams may not have attempted as often with a healthy Nelson and a productive Eddie Lacy on the field.
Seeing defenses like that of the Broncos and the Carolina Panthers use this strategy wasn't exactly shocking. Seeing the then-1-7 Detroit Lions ride it to victory was.
Tony Dungy explained on a recent episode of the Dan Patrick Show:
"Now people are saying 'I'm going to box Aaron Rodgers in the pocket, not let him out. And I'm going to bump-and-run all these guys. And you'll hit some, but you won't hit enough to consistently move the ball.' And we've seen it now for three consecutive weeks. Teams that don't even do that—that's not Detroit's style and they don't have those type of corners.
"
This is obviously an issue for Green Bay. If the Lions can shut down Rodgers and Co., then a playoff team like the Arizona Cardinals should be able to, as well.
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