Top Bounce-Back Candidates Available on the 2015-16 MLB Offseason Market
Baseball is a fickle sport.
Year in and year out, players scratch their heads as their performances fluctuate from exhilarating highs to frustrating lows. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at some players in the current offseason market who are poised to bounce back in 2016.
By digging deep into the numbers, there are trends that bode well for future production. ERA and batting average tell part of the story, but there are more telling numbers when looking at a player's stat sheet.
Take Jeff Samardzija, for example. How can his near-5.00 ERA and decline in strikeouts be explained? Usage rates, velocity and the effectiveness of his pitches all played into that ugly number.
The good news? Those are factors that require just small mechanical tweaks to fix. Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Chase Utley and others have the numbers in their favor.
Let us know what you think about our selections in the comment section below. Would you be OK with your favorite team signing one of these players? Should teams be wary of these players?
It's easy to write off a player after a poor performance, but the quality organizations are able to identify the ones that won't make it two seasons in a row. Here are a few names that fit that mold.
Ian Kennedy
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2015 Stats: 9-15, 168.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 9.30 K/9, 2.78 BB/9, 0.8 WAR
The San Diego Padres were one of the most disappointing teams in MLB this past season, and Ian Kennedy was no exception. The right-hander posted a 4.28 ERA and logged the fewest amount of innings in his big league career.
But Kennedy's campaign wasn't all doom and gloom. In fact, Kennedy's stuff may be better than it's ever been.
Kennedy struck out over 24 percent of the batters he faced, recording the best strikeout-to-walk percentage of his career. The 30-year-old cut down on the amount of pitches he threw this season, sticking primarily with a three-pitch mix.
Of those pitches, Kennedy threw his four-seamer the most. His heater was extremely effective outside of the strike zone, as batters made contact outside of the zone at a career-low rate against it this season. That's because Kennedy kept hitters honest with a healthy changeup and curveball.
On the flip side, Kennedy allowed a ton of homers in 2015. His 17.2 home-run-to-fly-ball ratio ranked second worst in MLB. Hitters did hit the ball harder off Kennedy this season, but there was no real change in fly-ball rate. Home run ratios can be a fickle stat from year to year, so there's reason to think that Kennedy can improve that number if he can keep his fly-ball ratio under 40 percent again next season.
Kennedy is an interesting option for teams in need of starting pitching this winter. He has his flaws, but we saw what the right-hander is capable of after he tinkered with his usage rates. Another season with the same strategy should lead to similar strikeout totals and more success keeping the ball in the yard.
Matt Joyce
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2015 Stats: .174/.272/.291, 5 HR, 17 R, 21 RBI, 62 wRC+, -1.4 WAR
Matt Joyce was on one of the worst players in MLB this season. The normally reliable outfielder posted a .272 on-base percentage and a negative WAR.
Before 2015, Joyce was extremely consistent. Since his first full season in the big leagues in 2011, the 31-year-old posted a wRC+ above 100 in four straight seasons. Joyce wasn't the perfect hitter, but he's been consistently better than a replacement level stick.
Obviously, Joyce's first taste of failure in 2015 weighed heavily on his psyche.
“I think that was the most frustrating year, coming to the field day in and day out and just failing,” he told Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. “Mentally, I don’t know if I’ve ever felt like I failed so much.”
So what went wrong in 2015?
It's hard to pin all of Joyce's struggles on poor luck, but that's what the numbers indicate. He did see a slight drop in hard-contact percentage, but he also saw a dip in the amount of soft contact he produced. Joyce managed to still use the whole field in his approach, and walked over 10 percent of the time.
By the end of the season, Joyce's batting average on balls in play was a mere .215. His swing wasn't as good as it has been in the past, but Joyce could have easily gone from a league-worst to a replacement-level hitter if a few more of those balls found a hole.
According to Moura's article, Joyce chose to play winter ball after the season, a rare move for a veteran player. His free-agent value was crushed this past year, but Joyce is a low-risk, high-reward hitter that could return to his previous form in 2016.
Chase Utley
3 of 5
2015 Stats: .212/.286/.343, 8 HR, 37 R, 39 RBI, 71 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
Chase Utley is a veteran free-agent hitter who can still help a team in 2016.
But he didn't look like that this past season. With the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, the 36-year-old suffered through the worst year of his storied career, slashing .212/.286/.343.
On the surface, Utley's decline in production can be chalked up to the natural aging process. That's partly true—Utley isn't the same hitter who carried the Phillies earlier in his career.
But he's also not as lost as he looked in 2015. Utley still hit the ball hard, generating hard-contact over 30 percent of the time for the fourth straight season. He also replicated his customary batted-ball statistics, including a line-drive rate above 20 percent.
Utley was pretty much the same in terms of plate discipline, as well. He did post the worst walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career since 2006, but a strikeout percentage of just over 15 percent is far from the league's worst.
Based on similar peripheral stats, it's safe to say that Utley's .230 BABIP—down from a career average of .299—was unfair, and not indicative of how he really swung the bat in 2015. His skills are declining, but Utley isn't a lost cause.
That's not to say Utley is without flaws. He's 36 and has suffered through various injuries in the latter stage of his career. But if an American League team can work him into the lineup and save his body by using the DH, there's still something left in Utley's tank for 2016.
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Neftali Feliz
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2015 Stats: 3-4, 48 IP, 6.38 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 7.31 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 0.4 WAR
Neftali Feliz used to be one of the game's elite closers. As he enters the free-agent market this winter, he'll be hoping to convince teams he's capable of returning to that form once again in 2016.
Feliz has struggled to remain on the field in his big league carer. In 2015, injuries ended his tenure with the Texas Rangers. When he returned to the mound with the Detroit Tigers, the right-hander posted a 7.62 ERA in 28 innings.
There's no getting around that ugly number, but Feliz is still an attractive buy-low candidate this offseason.
For one, Feliz hasn't lost anything off his blazing fastball—his heater actually averaged a full mph faster in 2015 than it did a year ago. Feliz was almost too reliant on his fastball, though, throwing it over 57 percent of the time this past season.
Hitters teed off on Feliz's heater because he wasn't as effective with his secondary pitches.
In the past, Feliz was able to get his slider over for easy strikes. In 2015, hitters swung at sliders in the strike zone 62 percent of the time, which is significantly higher than a career mark of right around 47 percent. There was a similar trend with his changeup, although it's never been an elite pitch for Feliz.
Knowing that Feliz's fastball can touch triple digits, hitters decided to swing at his get-me-over off-speed pitches much more this past season. When Feliz lost faith in those offerings and featured his heater more than he should, opponents were able to sit on it and have success they normally wouldn't.
Fortunately for Feliz, it won't be difficult to find a quick fix. With slightly better command of his secondary pitches, hitters will chase outside the strike zone. His fastball will then become even more lethal than it has been in the past.
The moral of the story is that Feliz has plenty left in his arm after several injuries. He's only 27, and shouldn't be viewed as damaged goods this winter.
Jeff Samardzija
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2015 Stats: 11-13, 214 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 2.7 WAR
Jeff Samardzija suffered through his worst season as a pro in 2015 when he posted a near-5.00 ERA with the Chicago White Sox.
But while Samardzija's struggles this past season are concerning, there's plenty of reason to believe he'll bounce back in 2015.
For one, Samardzija is still throwing hard. He ranked 12th in MLB in fastball velocity, while his cutter averaged around 92 mph. There was also no drastic change in his usage rates—Samardzija threw four pitches more than 400 times.
Velocity wasn't the issue, leaving location—particularly with his secondary pitches—as the main reason for his fall from grace.
Samardzija's splitter evolved into one of the better offerings in his arsenal over the course of his career but saw a significant decrease in strikeout percentage using it in 2015. The 30-year-old threw his splitter in the strike zone 36 percent of the time this season, which is up significantly from a 24 percent mark in 2014.
An inability to keep that key pitch down resulted in declines in strikeout and ground-ball percentages. Toward the end of the season, Samardzija made adjustments aimed to fix his command.
Samardzija told Doug Padilla of ESPN.com:
"Yeah, I mean, it was just a simple fix with my mechanics, with where my hands were, to tell you the truth. They were getting away from my body, which was making me get around the ball and missing left and right, and up in the zone mostly. So, I brought my hands a little tighter and it kept me a little more in line to the plate, and we started throwing more strikes, more quality strikes. I started hiding the ball a little better and we got what we got.
"
In a limited sample size after the adjustments, Samardzija allowed just two earned runs in 16 innings. If he can carry those mechanical changes into 2016, Samardzija will return to his previous best with his new club.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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