Ranking Each Star's Chances to Win the 2015 ATP World Tour Finals
The 2015 ATP World Tour Finals has already started the round-robin stages between the top eight players in the world. Traditionally, London’s year-end tournament has been a showcase for Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic who have combined for 10 titles in 12 years.
It would seem difficult for other stars to break through and win this title, especially for the lower seeds, but there is enough world-class talent and occasional unpredictability to set up an exciting showcase.
As we appraise the chances for all eight players at this tournament, it’s important to look at the group pairings. Like World Cup soccer, both groups decide a No. 1 and No. 2 seed after each player completes his three matches against the other players in his group. Standings are compiled with matches and sets won.
The semifinals are determined by cross-matching the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds from each group. From there, it’s single elimination including the final.
Here are the group pairings, determined by draw, with each player’s current world ranking:
Stan Smith Group
1. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
6. Tomas Berdych
8. Kei Nishikori
Ilie Nastase Group
2. Andy Murray
4. Stan Wawrinka
5. Rafael Nadal
7. David Ferrer
We will refer to these groups and the degrees of difficulties for each player as we rank each star’s chances in lifting up the WTF trophy.
8. Kei Nishikori
1 of 8
Recent Play: Kei Nishikori is making his second straight appearance at the WTF tournament, but unlike last year, the Japanese star is fading. Since a disappointing U.S. Open, Nishikori made the semifinals at Tokyo, but he has mostly struggled with injuries. His latest, an abdominal injury, forced him to retire against Richard Gasquet in the Paris Masters.
WTF Opponents: It figures to be tough for Nishikori to get out of the Stan Smith group. He was crushed in his opening match to Novak Djokovic, 6-1, 6-1, and he will probably have to defeat both Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych. He has defeated Federer twice in five career matches, but not on fast or indoor courts. Last year, Federer handled Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 at the WTF.
Outlook and Odds: It will be hard to get one victory against the more powerful groundstrokes and serve of Tomas Berdych. Defeating both Berdych and Federer will require that he be durable and track each ball with laser-like precision. If he gets only one win, he will need Lady Luck to steer him to the semifinals, and then who knows?
After the Djokovic loss, give him a desperate 65-1 chance to come all the way back for the title.
7. David Ferrer
2 of 8
Recent Play: Although few people list David Ferrer as a contender, he’s got the consistency of tropical climate where sunshine and seasons are a pleasant time for everyone. He’s not going to alter tennis history, but any fan would feel good if he could make one final great run to capture the WTF trophy.
As usual, Ferrer has played a heavily loaded mid-majors schedule, and he earned his way to London with his fitness, preparation and resilient groundstrokes. He took Malaysia and Vienna for his fourth and fifth titles of the year. The recent Ferrer forecast is warm if not mildly hot.
WTF Opponents: The tennis gods have often given Ferrer sneaky-good draws, although the Ilie Nastase group is hardly a weak one. Still, there is no Djokovic (10 straight losses) or Federer (0-16 lifetime) for the feisty Spaniard, who is no match for their talent.
Instead, Ferrer tees off against Andy Murray. This is not a hopeless match for Ferrer who beat the Scot at China last year before losing four straight matches since. If Murray serves poorly or Ferrer can show more energy and defense than his opponent, he’s got a reasonable chance for the upset.
Likewise against Rafael Nadal. Ferrer has defeated his countryman before, and London’s indoors is a better surface to narrow the gap from the beatings he has taken on clay from the superstar version of Nadal.
He might have the hardest time against Stan Wawrinka’s power, although they have not played since he took a beating at Monte Carlo in 2014. He would need help from Wawrinka’s still-occasional tendencies to spray too many errors against lesser opponents.
Outlook and Odds: He won’t be favored in any of his three matches, so Ferrer might have to pull off an upset, hope for some group parity and perhaps escape with the No. 2 seed. Although he made the WTF in 2007, it’s hard to put Ferrer at better than 40-1 to win it all.
6. Tomas Berdych
3 of 8
Recent Play: Tomas Berdych’s highlight might have been at the Australian Open where he finally defeated Rafael Nadal, when there was much optimism with new coach Dani Vallverdu. But he was unable to win a title for months until the drought was snapped at Shenzhen and Stockholm, mid-majors that helped him lock up his sixth straight appearance at London.
He’s not lighting up the world, and despite his physical talent, the best we can say is that he is healthy and not playing badly—a sort of tepid temperature.
WTF Opponents: Berdych might have preferred playing Roger Federer a few years ago. He’s had big-match wins in the past, but he was drilled 6-4, 6-2 by Federer on the opening day of their group competition, his fourth straight loss to the Swiss Maestro and all fairly one-sided victories.
Can he rebound by sweeping Kei Nishikori and upsetting world No. 1 Novak Djokovic? The answer is “probably” for the former and “very unlikely” against the latter. He’s going to have to raise his game with a lot more offensive clout and incredible serving.
Outlook and Odds: There’s always the chance that Berdych can finally win a huge title like the WTF or a major, but his consistent greatness has always been denied. His window is closing, and after the Federer loss his odds have ballooned to something like 35-1.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
5. Andy Murray
4 of 8
Recent Play: All year, world No. 2 Andy Murray has been a contender, ranging from the Australian Open finals through his first two clay-court titles, the Rogers Cup title and finalist at the Paris Masters. If not for Novak Djokovic’s thorough domination of Murray in the latter event, it might seem like the Scot could finally win one WTF final in front of his nation’s fans.
Give Murray a warm reading against everyone except Djokovic and Roger Federer; fortunately he does not face either in the Ilie Nastase group.
WTF Opponents: He figures to take care of Ferrer, but how hard he has to work in that one could go a long ways toward how much energy he will be able to expend against Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka. If he takes care of Ferrer and splits with the others, Murray will make it to the semifinals.
Outlook and Odds: Forget about his commitment to Great Britain’s Davis Cup final the week after. Murray will be primed to put everything into these round-robin matches. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him win the group, or to lose out to Nadal or Wawrinka. The margins at the top, excepting Djokovic, are close.
Give Murray 12-1 odds to win this tournament, because winning this title still means having to defeat Federer or Djokovic this weekend. That’s tough on Murray.
4. Rafael Nadal
5 of 8
Recent Play: Media reports since China, Switzerland and Paris have rung in a cautious optimism about Rafael Nadal. Yes, he’s playing better than he did last spring, and this during the indoors season, but will it be enough for him to win his first WTF trophy? The bottom line is that he still lost to Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in recent weeks.
Nadal's forehand is looking more like a weapon again, and he is not as often behind with his footwork and shots, but he will still need to lift his game a level in order to get out of the Ilie Nastase group. The semifinals will be daunting, if he makes it there.
WTF Opponents: He’s developed an interesting rivalry with Stan Wawrinka after owning him in their first 12 meetings. Nadal has lost three of four since Australia 2014, but he crushed Wawrinka at Shanghai and lost two bitterly fought tiebreakers at the Paris Masters, a match he probably should have won.
Nadal has had a lot of three-setters this fall, and although his confidence is rising, it could cost him if he has to play David Ferrer three sets or if he loses to Wawrinka and Andy Murray. However, it feels like Nadal is ready to take two of three matches and perhaps match up with Federer or Djokovic in the semifinals.
Outlook and Odds: I like Nadal’s chances to get out of his group, but not to win the tournament. He will need to hold serve and break his opponents with a bigger forehand and an airtight backhand. He's better but far from being "back."
Nadal could win a semifinal match if he plays his best tennis, but if he meets Djokovic in the final, it will be long odds indeed—something right now in the neighborhood of 11-1 to win the title.
3. Stan Wawrinka
6 of 8
Recent Play: Better than one year ago, Stan Wawrinka took Tokyo, defeated Rafael Nadal at the Paris Masters and was the only player since the U.S. Open to take a single set from Novak Djokovic. His game can go through hiccups, but his baseline power and execution is a powerful threat against his more decorated superstar peers. His 2014 Australian Open and 2015 French Open trophies are proof enough.
WTF Opponents: Wawrinka might be the best player in the Ilie Nastase group, although Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray can each claim this right on their best days. Murray is the most consistent, Wawrinka the most powerful and Nadal a blend of the two, at least when considering recent months. It wouldn’t be surprising to see these three split matches with each other and maybe have David Ferrer figure in an upset to help determine the group's two seeds.
Outlook and Odds: Wawrinka nearly knocked out Roger Federer in a controversial semifinal match a year ago, a match he could not close out serving at 5-4 in the third set, including three of four match points. Still, he is the most likely player to stare down Djokovic and show the nerves to outhit and outlast the Serbian as he has proved at Melbourne and Roland Garros.
Of course, Wawrinka’s also had inexplicable matches, usually through self-inflicted unforced errors, and maybe he is the one that could trip against Ferrer. He needs to take care of Murray and Nadal—hardly easy tasks—to get to the semifinals where he might have to defeat both Federer and Djokovic. Best we can do is give him 8-1 odds, and maybe this should be lower.
2. Roger Federer
7 of 8
Recent Play: Federer peaked in the summer with two excellent runs at the Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles. If it were not for Novak Djokovic, he would have chalked up another epic year. Since, the Swiss Maestro has coasted, losing early at Masters 1000 venues Shanghai and Paris, but sandwiching these disappointments with a satisfying victory over career rival Rafael Nadal to win his hometown tournament in Basel.
Overall, Federer should be rested and ready to compete, but we will see if he can lift his game during pressure points that determine close sets. He got off to a nice start on the opening day at the WTF tournament, drilling Tomas Berdych with 20 aces in his 6-4, 6-2 win.
WTF Opponents: With Berdych in his hip pocket, Federer probably only needs to defeat Kei Nishikori to clinch one of the the group’s two seeds. The Japanese star has been a pesky winner a couple times against Federer, but the Swiss star is the overwhelming favorite with this matchup indoors.
The more interesting point is if it will help Federer to play Djokovic in the round-robin stages before potentially working their way up to a final meeting. Would an early loss to Djokovic allow Federer to learn a few things and perhaps tip the blazing world No. 1, or could he defeat the Serb and build his confidence for a repeat in the final? Odd as it seems, it might be more likely that he ambushes Djokovic in the final than to defeat him twice within a week.
Outlook and Odds: Federer’s reliability and talent should get him to the semifinals unless something strange happens—such as Berdych upsetting Djokovic and forcing a three-way tie in which Federer loses the sets tiebreaker. Otherwise, it’s hard to see him losing to Kei Nishikori and even harder to see him denied the semifinals with a 2-1 round-robin record.
The semifinals will be more difficult. He would probably prefer playing David Ferrer and Andy Murray, especially in the way that he has handled the latter. Both Wawrinka and Nadal have their own special matchup problems and either has more than a puncher’s chance to defeat Federer.
Federer’s odds to win the WTF are about 4-1.
1. Novak Djokovic
8 of 8
Recent Play: Scorching. Better than ever. Unbeatable? All of these sentiments have been expressed in recent weeks as world No. 1 Novak Djokovic has destroyed the competition in winning Beijing, Shanghai Masters and Paris Masters.
He had won 29 straight sets until Stan Wawrinka took one from him in the Paris semifinals. Since, Djokovic has another five very easy sets against Wawrinka, Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori for the tune of 6-0, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1.
WTF Opponents: It hardly seems important to discuss his shellacking of Kei Nishikori in the opening round, or to examine the game plans for his encounters with Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer. He was tested by Berdych in Paris with two tiebreakers, and his wars with Federer have been well documented.
Djokovic’s biggest opponent, truth be told, is himself. If he continues to play top-notch tennis, the others can pick up their parting gifts and fly home. It’s also possible that Djokovic slips up at the wrong time, either to cost him a seed for the semifinals, or, more likely, that someone like Wawrinka or Federer plays a brilliant match in the knockout stages and forces Djokovic to pack his bags earlier than the final.
Outlook and Odds: The most important story is if Djokovic can complete his bid for, arguably, the greatest year in the 21st century. Overall, anyone would bet Djokovic against the field. Even something like 1-3 odds, or saying that Djokovic is 75 percent likely to win the tournament just might be underselling just how dominant he is right now.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
