5 Unexpected Moves That Could Shake Up the 2015-16 MLB Offseason
The MLB offseason is in full swing, as we have already seen a pair of blockbuster trades, three players accept qualifying offers and a few other low-level free-agent signings.
There is still a lot left to be decided between now and spring training, though, and with the winter meetings less than a month away, expect the hot stove to continue getting hotter in the days and weeks to come.
Predicting the offseason is tough to begin with, as so many teams play things close to the vest, and unexpected moves abound both in free agency and on the trade market.
With that in mind, let's take a look at five unexpected moves that could really shake up the 2015-16 offseason if they were to come to fruition.
The Boston Red Sox Stick to the Trade Market to Improve Their Rotation
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The Boston Red Sox have already added one significant piece to their pitching staff, shipping four prospects, including Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra, to the San Diego Padres for stud closer Craig Kimbrel, and chances are they're not done.
A few more bullpen pieces will likely be added to the mix, but the pressing need for a front-line starting pitcher remains atop their offseason shopping list.
After giving up some key prospect pieces already, the assumption is that the Red Sox will focus on the free-agent market for a starting pitcher, and Red Sox President Dave Dombrowski backed that up.
"My thought process is most likely any acquisition we'd make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned," Dombrowski told reporters (via Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald) on Friday.
"You never know, but that would be my guess."
That means there's a good chance someone from the group of David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann winds up in a Red Sox jersey next season.
However, the Red Sox system is still loaded with prospect talent, and strange things tend to happen on the trade market as the offseason progresses, so anything is possible.
The Red Sox pulling the trigger on another big trade rather than signing someone from that aforementioned group would have a clear trickle-down effect on the pitching market as a whole.
Jason Heyward Signs Quickly Somewhere Other Than St. Louis
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The St. Louis Cardinals have made it clear that re-signing Jason Heyward is their No. 1 priority this offseason, and that remains unchanged, despite the emerging need for a starting pitcher after Lance Lynn underwent Tommy John surgery.
Heyward remains short of being an elite offensive option, but he still provides tremendous overall value thanks to his stellar defense, good plate discipline and solid speed on the bases.
More importantly, he's still just 26 years old, putting him in position to be a franchise cornerstone for a team with an aging offensive core.
Negotiations with Heyward are expected to move slowly, considering he may be in line for a $200 million pay day, but what happens if he signs quickly and signs somewhere other than St. Louis?
With Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham all on the roster, outfield is not necessarily as big of a priority as specifically bringing back Heyward.
If the team were to lose out on Heyward, it could turn its attention instead to the front-line starting pitching market.
Right now, the team is expected to target mid-level options to fill its need in the rotation, with Mark Buehrle reportedly interested in joining the team if he doesn't retire, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.
The Cardinals could set their sights considerably higher if they're not committing big money to Heyward, though.
Throwing the Cardinals into the mix for the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann would certainly shake up the pitching market as a whole.
Todd Frazier Is Aggressively Shopped by the Cincinnati Reds
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There were some questions as to just how aggressively the Cincinnati Reds would commit to selling entering the offseason, but those were quickly answered when the front office declared the team open for business.
"I don't know if we're in a position to say there's any untouchables," general manager Walt Jocketty told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "There's certainly guys who would be much more difficult to move, but we have to be open-minded to whatever we can do to improve the club for the long term."
Closer Aroldis Chapman and outfielder Jay Bruce appear to be the two most likely chips to be moved, but the name to keep an eye on will be third baseman Todd Frazier.
Despite a fantastic season from Joey Votto, a case can be made that Frazier has emerged as the face of the franchise, and at one point, he looked like a clear candidate to be extended ahead of reaching free agency after the 2017 season.
He wrapped up the 2015 season with an .806 OPS, 43 doubles, 35 home runs and 89 RBI on his way to a 4.0 WAR.
However, his production fell off dramatically after the All-Star break, as he posted a .220/.274/.390 line with 10 home runs in the second half.
The third base market is incredibly weak this winter, with David Freese and perhaps Daniel Murphy, if he slides over to the hot corner, as the only viable everyday options.
The Reds making Frazier readily available would add another wrinkle to the offseason position-player market, as even after a mediocre second half, he'd still net a big prospect haul, considering his power production and two remaining years of club control.
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David Price or Zack Greinke Sign Before the Winter Meetings
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Last offseason, the entire secondary pitching market was on hold until Jon Lester made his decision and set the market.
Lester eventually inked his six-year, $155 million deal with the Chicago Cubs during the winter meetings, and the rest of the pitching market was set into motion from there.
This year's market for mid-level starters is as deep as any in recent memory, but that group will likely be waiting once again for the market to unfold, and it will be either David Price or Zack Greinke who finds himself in the Lester role this time around.
An early decision by either of those elite starters could set off a whirlwind in Nashville when the winter meetings take place from Dec. 6-10.
Greinke seems like the more likely of the two to sign quickly.
There's still a good chance he winds up back in Los Angeles, considering it presents a great opportunity to win in both the short and long term and likely won't be outbid by anyone, given its seemingly endless stream of money.
Chris Sale or Sonny Gray Are Made Available
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While the four aforementioned scenarios would obviously have an impact on how the dominoes fall this offseason, the real game-changer would be if the Oakland Athletics or Chicago White Sox decide to change their tune on a pair of aces.
For most teams, it would be a no-brainer for a 26-year-old pitcher coming off of a Cy Young-caliber season like Sonny Gray to be untouchable.
However, if we've learned anything over the past few years, it's that no one is truly untouchable with Billy Beane pulling the strings in the Oakland front office.
That being said, the team has not shown a willingness to even entertain offers for Gray to this point.
"We don’t intend to trade Sonny Gray," A's general manager David Forst told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. “Not for a lack of interest, and not because he’s not a great pitcher that a lot of teams want. But we really feel like he’s part of our future, as well. As soon as you trade a young, healthy really good pitcher, you’re looking for another one."
That's the right thing to say here in November, but Beane has proven time and again that he's more than willing to flip his young talent before it becomes expensive.
No one expected Josh Donaldson to be moved last offseason, but he wound up shipped to Toronto. For an Oakland team that doesn't look like a contender in the short-term, a huge prospect haul for Gray could be tough to pass up.
The other big arm that has seen his name pop up in rumors, but who is not necessarily available at this point, is White Sox left-hander Chris Sale.
The 26-year-old has gone 53-37 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 900 strikeouts in 789 innings in his four years as a starter, and there is little question he is one of the game's elite arms.
Things did not go according to plan for the White Sox after a busy offseason last year, and while it would be hard to part with Sale, he'd bring a huge return that could potentially set the team up better for the long term and restock a thin farm system.
Making Sale even more attractive is his incredibly team-friendly contract, as he's owed just $47.15 million over the next four years, including a pair of team options.
To this point, neither team has given any indication that it would be willing to move its ace.
However, if that were to change, it would completely change the landscape of the MLB offseason.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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