SEC Football: Bowl Projections for Every Team
We've reached mid-November, and that means we've reached the home stretch in the race for the best bowl games associated with the SEC.
One-loss Florida has already clinched the SEC East, Alabama has the inside track for the West, and the two could meet in the SEC Championship Game in a de facto national quarterfinal if they stay unblemished down the stretch.
Who will make the College Football Playoff? How about the "New Year's Six" bowls?
Our SEC bowl projections based on record, projection and the bowl tie-in flow chart are in this slide show.
A reminder: There is no limit on teams from the same conference making New Year's Six bowls, and the SEC places teams in the "pool of six bowls" after the Citrus Bowl gets its choice. Because of the possibility of more than two teams being placed in the New Year's Six bowls, not enough SEC teams are projected to be bowl-eligible to fill all of the SEC's slots, leaving the Camping World Independence Bowl out of the mix for an SEC team. Of course, if there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams nationwide, bowls could choose 5-7 teams if they receive waivers from the NCAA.
Outside Looking In: Missouri, Vanderbilt and South Carolina
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Right now, Missouri, Vanderbilt and South Carolina are not projected to be bowl-eligible following the end of the regular season, and the SEC is not expected to have enough bowl-eligible teams to fill the final spot of its bowl tie-in structure—the Camping World Independence Bowl.
Does that mean that one of these teams won't be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana?
Not necessarily.
If there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams to fill the bowl slots for the 40 bowls (not including the College Football Playoff National Championship, which takes two teams that will have already played in a bowl), it's safe to assume that the Independence Bowl will make a strong push for a 5-7 SEC team, provided it can get a waiver from the NCAA.
Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats
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Before everybody freaks out at the inclusion of Kentucky in the bowl picture, I'll be honest...it looked weird to me at first too.
Kentucky has lost four straight, regressed on both sides of the ball and looks almost identical to last year's squad that lost its final six games to finish 5-7.
At 4-5, though, this Wildcats squad will fix itself down the stretch at least enough to make a bowl game. The game against Charlotte will be a win, and splitting the other two (at Vanderbilt and versus Louisville) will happen. The Wildcats will finish with a sluggish 6-6 record, but sluggish still gets head coach Mark Stoops those precious bowl practices.
Possible Opponents: Memphis, Houston, Temple, Navy
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies
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Texas A&M has been hit-or-miss this year on both sides of the ball, but that shouldn't prevent the Aggies from posting a solid record in the fourth year of the Kevin Sumlin era.
They sit at 6-3 right now and have games versus Western Carolina and at Vanderbilt and LSU left. At least two more wins are likely, but even one would qualify quarterback Kyler Murray and his crew for the SEC's "pool of six" bowls.
Where could they be headed?
The same place they started in 2015: Houston, Texas, for the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl.
Aggies fans would fill up NRG Stadium, Sumlin would love to stay in-state to close out some critical recruiting battles in the Lone Star State, and it seems like the best fit for the young Aggies.
Possible Opponents: Texas Tech, West Virginia, Texas (please?)
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AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks
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After looking like it was headed straight to 3-9 misery, Arkansas has fixed itself, looks balanced on offense and will make a bowl game in 2015.
The question now becomes, "Where?"
At 5-4 with games left at LSU, and versus Mississippi State and Missouri, not only should Arkansas become bowl-eligible with a win over Missouri, but it could become very attractive if it beats LSU this weekend—which I think will happen.
Either way, the Razorbacks will fall into the SEC's "pool of six" bowls and be placed in Memphis for the Liberty Bowl. It's an easy trip across the border for Hogs fans, the bowl will want to avoid Ole Miss since it played Memphis in this stadium early this year, and it can provide a solid matchup with Arkansas taking on a Big 12 foe.
Possible Opponents: West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas
Belk Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers
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Get ready for more offseason Tennessee hype, because it's coming.
The Volunteers are 5-4, have learned to trust the passing game and have games versus North Texas, at Missouri and versus Vanderbilt left on the schedule. Not only will they make a bowl, but they could win out and finish 8-4.
As a reward, they should head to Charlotte to participate in the Belk Bowl against a team out of the ACC.
The Vols have a fantastic rushing attack, quarterback Joshua Dobbs has evolved into a true dual-threat weapon, and the team has the SEC's second-best third-down defense (29.41 percent).
Possible Opponents: North Carolina, N.C. State, Miami
TaxSlayer Bowl: Auburn Tigers
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It seemed like Auburn's bowl hopes disappeared in Fayetteville, Arkansas, when the Tigers lost 54-46 to the Razorbacks.
A funny thing happened since then, though. "Buck" Carl Lawson returned, running back Jovon Robinson emerged, quarterback Jeremy Johnson came back, and—gulp—Auburn looks somewhat competitive.
The Tigers are 5-4 right now and should become bowl-eligible with a win over Idaho in the penultimate weekend of the season. A win over Alabama (unlikely) or Georgia (likely) will land the Tigers in the "pool of six" and earn head coach Gus Malzahn a trip to Jacksonville, Florida, to take on either an ACC or a Big Ten opponent in the TaxSlayer Bowl.
Possible Opponents: Penn State, Duke, North Carolina, Miami, N.C. State
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs
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The season hasn't gone to the plans of Georgia fans, but at 6-3 with games against Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech left, there's still time for the Bulldogs to close strong.
Unfortunately, though, the quarterback position resembles one you find in March, not November, the offensive line has struggled, and head coach Mark Richt and his assistants have enough "noise in the system" to fill Athens.
That's OK, though, because the Bulldogs will win at least two more games even if they lose to Auburn this weekend and be an attractive option for the Music City Bowl and its prime-time slot on Dec. 30.
Possible Opponents: Penn State, N.C. State, Duke
Outback Bowl: Ole Miss Rebels
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Ole Miss was in control of its SEC West destiny for two months, but the overtime loss to Arkansas last week changed the Rebels' postseason prospects immensely.
A trip to Tampa to play in the Outback Bowl, though, won't be a bad consolation prize.
The 7-3 Rebels have games versus LSU and at Mississippi State left on the schedule. Even if they don't win another game, they'll still be a nice fit for the Outback Bowl—which will provide a nice stage on New Year's Day to show off all of the NFL talent on Ole Miss' roster.
Possible Opponents: Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs
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When you scrolled through the first few slides of this article and looked at the lower-tier bowl games, you probably wondered, "Where is Mississippi State?"
Not there, because the Bulldogs will be headed to central Florida during the holiday season to play in the Citrus Bowl—the SEC's best non-New Year's Six bowl.
At 7-2, even if the Bulldogs lose to Alabama this weekend, they should win out at Arkansas and versus Ole Miss, and finish at 9-3 with a high-profile quarterback taking the snaps in senior Dak Prescott.
Hello, Orlando.
Possible Opponents: Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: LSU Tigers
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LSU's dream season came to a screeching halt in Tuscaloosa last week, but that doesn't mean all is lost.
After all, at 7-1, the Tigers still have outside hopes at making the College Football Playoff. A New Year's Six bowl, however, is very likely. At least two wins are likely down a stretch run that includes games versus Arkansas, at Ole Miss and versus Texas A&M.
A 9-2 record (at worst) combined with one of the most marketable players in the country—star running back Leonard Fournette—makes the Tigers a lock for the a major bowl. What better place than within the SEC footprint at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta?
Possible Opponents: Michigan State, Michigan, Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida Gators
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No, Florida's offense doesn't exactly look like a reincarnation of the 2000 St. Louis Rams. That defense, though, should allow the Gators to win out (including a victory over Florida State) and create a de facto national semifinal against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
If they win it, they're a lock for the College Football Playoff. But it doesn't seem likely that the Gators offensive line can hold off that talented Crimson Tide front seven.
But by playing in the SEC Championship Game, that should earn the Gators a bid in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, which goes to the SEC team not in the playoff ranked highest in the final College Football Playoff rankings.
Possible Opponents: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (National Semifinal): Alabama Crimson Tide
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Alabama earned the inside track to the College Football Playoff with the 30-16 win over LSU, and it isn't going to give it up.
The 8-1 Crimson Tide still will get tested down the stretch by a sneaky-good Mississippi State team, an improving Auburn team and a Florida team that should have a lot to play for in the SEC Championship Game. But they'll win out, earn the No. 3 slot in the final College Football Playoff rankings and get a shot at their first national title since 2012.
In our latest College Football Playoff projections, I had Alabama as the No. 3 seed, which would create a matchup against Ohio State.
Hello, rematch!
Possible Opponents: Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Michigan State
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter, @BarrettSallee.
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