NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Week 11 Top 25 Standings, Playoff Predictions
The first College Football Playoff rankings were announced Nov. 3 amid controversy after they included the one-loss Alabama Crimson Tide.
There will be no talk of overrated Alabama this week.
The Crimson Tide dismantled the No. 2 LSU Tigers, 30-16, in Week 10, and will surely move up from No. 4 when the rankings are released Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Coming in at No. 1 in the first poll were the undefeated Clemson Tigers, followed by LSU, the Ohio State Buckeyes and finally Alabama.
It's safe to say LSU will no longer be in the top four, and Alabama will surely move up. The big question is: Who will slide in at No. 4?
Let's take a look at the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll released Sunday and make a prediction for the next CFP top four before the rankings are released:
| 1 | Clemson Tigers | 9-0 | 1 | @ Syracuse Orangemen |
| 2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 8-1 | 4 | @ Mississippi State Bulldogs |
| 3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 9-0 | 3 | @ Illinois Fighting Illini |
| 4 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 8-1 | 5 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
There was quite a bit of shake-up in the poll with five undefeated teams going down in Week 10, and there should be in the next CFP poll as well. In this projection, LSU falls out, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish move in and Alabama leaps Ohio State despite the Buckeyes defeating the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Week 10.
Here is a breakdown of each team, and why they are projected where they are:
Notre Dame Fighting for No. 4
The Irish move into the playoff because LSU not only lost, but was embarrassed by Alabama. They also held serve in Week 10 with a 42-30 road victory against the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Notre Dame was ranked fifth in the opening polls due to a 7-1 record at the time with a formidable schedule ranked 19th in the RPI. The lone defeat came on the road at the hands of No. 1 Clemson.
According to the RPI rankings, only Northwestern has a tougher schedule than Notre Dame among top-25 RPI teams. The Irish's last five opponents have a combined record of 36-8, with half of the losses coming via Notre Dame.
Two victories over AP Top 25 teams in the Temple Owls and Navy Midshipmen help Notre Dame's case as well.
There will be a strong push from the 9-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys after they crushed the previously unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs, 49-29, in Week 10. While impressive, it was OSU's first win against a ranked opponent, which should help keep the Irish one spot ahead of the Cowboys.
Ohio State Eyes No. 3
Poor Ohio State. All it does is win, yet the Buckeyes can't claim the top spot.
Last year's national champs were a unanimous No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, and all they've done this year is start the season with nine straight victories.
However, they haven't come easy. Ohio State had two straight one-possession victories over the unranked Northern Illinois Huskies and Indiana Hoosiers earlier in the season. In Week 10, the Buckeyes led unranked Minnesota 21-14 with two minutes remaining before scoring a late touchdown to win by 14.
The CFP committee was obviously more impressed with Clemson and LSU's undefeated resumes at the time of the first rankings, and it will be a similar case once again when the second edition is released.
A quarterback controversy between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones had cooled a bit until Barrett was suspended in Week 10 following an arrest. He will start in Week 11, per Austin Ward of ESPN.com, but any instability at that position could lead voters to wonder if this is a team that will struggle against top-caliber opponents.
Speaking of those, Ohio State hasn't played many this season. It has the 93rd-ranked schedule according to the college RPI, with their toughest opponent being—you probably didn't guess it—the Western Michigan Broncos.
College football analyst Kirk Herbstreit, who played quarterback at Ohio State, even thinks one-loss Alabama should be ahead of the undefeated Buckeyes:
Ohio State may very well run the table, but if Clemson and Alabama do the rest of the way as well, the Buckeyes won't grab a top-two spot in the rankings. The good news for them, as they showed last year by winning the national championship ranked No. 4, is that all you have to do is get in the playoff and anything can happen.
Alabama Rolling at No. 2
As previously noted, Alabama did everything in its power in Week 10 to prove it belonged in the top four.
The Crimson Tide may have received a jolt from their head coach Nick Saban prior to the game, after he went off in a press conference saying the rankings mean nothing. The only thing in his mind that does mean something is playing hard and winning every game the rest of the season, per FOXSports.com:
"The only reason we have it is for folks like you to have something to talk about and write about…and ask questions about, which you do a nice job of, incidentally…Until the end of the season, I don’t have anything to say about it…It doesn’t mean anything other than your team has done well enough to have a chance to create an opportunity for itself if they can finish the season the right way…
"
By easily handling LSU, Alabama proved it is a much-improved team since a Week 3 loss to Ole Miss. Like Notre Dame, Alabama has played a strong schedule, coming in at 20th in the RPI.
Wins against three current AP Top 25 teams are on their resume, and if they finish undefeated with an SEC championship, they'll likely have two more.
Like it or not, Coach Saban, the Crimson Tide will be in the top two of the CFP, and that's where they'll stay.
Clemson Tightens Grip on No. 1
For all the talk of Alabama's hot streak and the tough schedules some one-loss teams are dealing with, Clemson has them all beat.
The Tigers have the highest strength of schedule rank among all undefeated teams, at 26. They also have the most impressive win of the four playoff teams in Notre Dame.
You won't find too many who will argue with Clemson taking hold of the top spot, including its head coach Dabo Swinney, per ESPN.com: "I've been voting us No. 1 for three weeks," Swinney said after the Tigers defeated the No. 19 Florida State Seminoles in Week 10. "Y'all are just catching up."
The Tigers don't have any negatives going for them right now. They've won all nine games on their schedule, have a quarterback in Deshaun Watson who leads the Atlantic Coast Conference in passing yards and touchdowns and boast a defense that has allowed the second-fewest points in the ACC.
Clemson has already clinched the ACC Atlantic division and a spot in the conference title game. The schedule softens up a bit as they wind down with games against the Syracuse Orangemen, Wake Forest Demon Deacons and South Carolina Gamecocks.
If they take care of business, the only thing stopping them from claiming the top CFP spot is the winner of the ACC Coastal division, which currently is the No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels.
If you haven't "caught up" by now, it's time. Clemson is for real, and about to prove it.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
