2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 9
If you ever try to pin down who you think will win on a given NFL Sunday, you'll realize how close every one of the 32 franchises are across the board. Right when you think you have the league figured out, Blaine Gabbert's San Francisco 49ers, who won only one of their last seven games heading into the match, beat the Atlanta Falcons, who started the year with five straight wins.
At the end of the day, what makes the biggest difference is young players on rookie contracts. For that reason, the NFL draft has such a strong pull on the outcome of the league, and is much more important than the NBA or MLB drafts, leagues where the majority of stars hit free agency. In the NFL, hitting free agency is almost a negative, as every team has a fixed hard cap to use on players. If a franchise, which has just as much financial resources as any, lets you go, what's that say about you?
Rookie contract players swing the league. If you don't believe me, look at the Seattle Seahawks before and after they started having to dish out big money. Some fans are already past this season and are looking at the upcoming draft class, and I don't blame them one bit.
Unless you're in the AFC South, it's hard for me to imagine a team losing more than six games and making the playoffs this year. As it stands, the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns are over that threshold, and the Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers are one slip away.
For those fanbases and more, we'll go over some of the hot names in the draft world, based off full-season momentum and recent elite performers, plus cover some of the names that are rapidly cooling off in late fall.
Stock Up: Andrew Billings, DL, Baylor
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I'm not sure anyone has risen as much as Andrew Billings this season. Last year, he was just the freak athlete nose tackle for Baylor who ran down a Kansas running back. This year, he looks like the potential top 3-technique defensive tackle in college football.
That's where I'd start the conversation on him. He's playing over the center often for the Bears. If I were projecting him to the NFL level, though, he's playing as a 4-3 undertackle. He's more of an Aaron Donald-type penetrator than a Danny Shelton-type space-eater.
He's a Waco, Texas-raised high school power-lifting champion. Per my insight, defensive linemen's scouting reports start with athletic measurables. In condensed spaces, when you can't move an inch without contact, your ability to generate force is a premium. Clearly, Billings is one of the best in that aspect.
He's strong, but he's not overwhelming with the technique he currently has. He's not beating base blocks on a consistent basis. Instead, he's blowing off the line of scrimmage instantly and causing disruptions against reach blocks, which he'll see more as a 3-technique than a 0-technique, which is why I predict he'll be a much-better pro as a "small" defensive tackle in a 4-3 in the NFL. The junior is also only 19 years old; he has plenty of room to grow.
Current draft projection: top-15 pick
Stock Down: Jalen Mills, DB, LSU
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Jalen Mills' senior season didn't start the way he wanted it to. His 2015 draft-class declaration came down to the wire, but the defensive back eventually decided to remain at LSU for one last season, returning as one of college football's top seniors. Heading into the year, he was listed on the Senior Bowl's watch list as a safety.
It was hard to pigeonhole Mills early on. He's played a cornerback/safety hybrid role, but he has the frame of someone who can play cornerback at 6'1", especially considering the NFL's emphasis on size on the boundary in recent seasons. The issue was whether his feet were good enough to get in the 4.4 range in the 40-yard dash, generally viewed as the bar NFL cornerbacks must pass.
Outside of his frame, though, he didn't truly display many definitive traits. That is why he continued his college career. His final season was supposed to be a display of improved speed and technique for NFL evaluators. Instead, he missed the first month and a half of the season with a fractured fibula.
On top of that, he has a background that may cause a red flag for today's franchises: He allegedly "knocked a woman unconscious" in May 2014. He hasn't done anything to improve his stock this season, and against Alabama, he was hung out for the world to see. He struggled both keeping the top on the defense and stepping up to tackle Derrick Henry at times.
I think he ends up as and NFL-level safety, but the variance of where he could possibly be drafted is wide. Some had him slated as a preseason first-round pick. Right now, it's going to be a hard sell to convince someone he's a top-60 selection.
Current draft projection: third-round pick
Stock Up: Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
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Here's a name you're probably haven't heard as an NFL draft prospect: Luke Falk of Washington State. Cougars head coach Mike Leach has built plenty of college quarterbacks, but it's hard to come up with a better passing prospect than Falk, who is just a redshirt sophomore.
Even Connor Halliday, who spent time with the Washington Redskins this offseason, isn't as efficient with the ball as Falk, who replaced Halliday due to injury last season. As a redshirt freshman coming off the bench, Falk had a passer rating of 140.4, and this year he's at 151.4.
He's incredibly accurate and decisive. He doesn't have a cannon, but he has enough of an arm to keep him in the NFL conversation. Either everyone overlooked him in high school, or Leach has done an incredible job of developing the Logan, Utah, product. He was only given one other FBS scholarship offer: the University of Idaho.
Falk has kept Washington State in every game. Losing their opener to Portland State will hang over the entire Cougars' season, but they've only lost three times: by three to Portland State, by six in California—against one of the country's top quarterbacks—and by two against Stanford—a potential title contender.
Overall, Falk reminds me of a young Matt Hasselbeck. He's not going to be a flashy guy, but if he continues down the path he's on, he can be a 10-year starter for a patient franchise. How many NFL teams would love to get handed a young Hasselbeck? You can win with Falk if he's not asked to consistently throw physically demanding passes.
If Memphis' Paxton Lynch, California's Jared Goff, Penn State's Christian Hackenberg and Ohio State's Cardale Jones all do declare, and I would be shocked if any of them did stay to play their senior years, Falk, a would-be junior, is a better option than any of the remaining would-be seniors.
Patrick Towles of Kentucky, Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Falk would more than likely be battling for the top quarterback spot in 2017 in this situation.
Current draft projection: third-round pick
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Stock Up: A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
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Up to this point in the season, A'Shawn Robinson was having a disappointing year. Some thought he would take the jump to a potential top-10 pick, but in 2015, he's mostly looked like a former blue-chip prospect with a big frame who hadn't yet put it together.
When you watch him move, he looks like a Michael Brockers-type. He plays a 5-technique role at Alabama, but I don't think he has to stick to that at the NFL level. At 6'4" and 312 pounds, I think his run-stopping skill set will fit in as a 1-technique, a 5-technique or even possibly a 0-technique, if he's placed on a meal plan as a professional.
One place you can't lack athleticism is the defensive line. You're at a disadvantage by not knowing the snap count and having an offensive lineman breath on you pre-snap.
Every other defender on the field has time to read before they step, while defensive linemen have to step and react in the same second. Not only that, but if they cheat the snap count, that trait will get exposed more often at the NFL level. There's a reason why defensive tackles such as former second-round pick Jerel Worthy don't stick around for long after they're figured out.
Robinson put his explosive ability to the test against LSU. Coming into the game, the Tigers were slated for a playoff slot, and their running back Leonard Fournette looked like the sure Heisman winner. Fournette, who hadn't averaged fewer than 5.7 yards per carry in any game in 2015, was held to 31 yards on 19 carries.
A big part of that had to do with Robinson's absolute takeover, which also included a blocked field goal. Usually when players leap over a long snapper on their way to nail a kick, they're freak off-the-ball defenders like Jamie Collins or Kam Chancellor. The fact that Robinson was able to pull off the same stunt is insane.
Current draft projection: top-15 pick
Stock Down: Jared Goff, QB, California
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Previously, I've stated Jared Goff was a riser in the early-2015 stretch. That was true, but since then, he's started to tumble. Part of that is the constantly moving ocean that makes up the quarterback position in college football. Memphis' Paxton Lynch is now "the guy," and many are also starting to warm up to traditional passers like Michigan State's Connor Cook and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg.
In many ways, a Cook or Hackenberg juxtaposition against Goff is similar to debates in 2014 surrounding Blake Bortles—the traditional passer the Jacksonville Jaguars took third overall—and Teddy Bridgewater—the efficient but skinny quarterback the Minnesota Vikings took with the last pick in the first round.
Goff has had a history with the University of Oregon, and this Saturday was just another chapter. As a true freshman, he was benched midway through his first game against the Ducks in a downpour in Autzen Stadium. As a sophomore, though, he had a passer rating of 132.4 in a 59-41 loss, looking impressive enough to start opening the eyes of those off the West Coast in a prime-time situation.
Returning to Autzen a second time as a true junior, the expectations for Goff were set high. He improved strongly between his freshman and sophomore seasons, and another big jump was expected for his potentially final bout with Oregon. The conservative, three-man rushing team ended up holding Goff to a completion percentage of 43.9 percent and an adjusted QBR of 41.4—his lowest in over a calendar year.
I'm beginning to wonder if his strong early-season production only manifested because of California's schedule. They started the year off against Grambling State, San Diego State and Washington State at home with two road trips to Texas and Washington in their first five games.
None of those squads are known for lock-down defenses. Since then, they've played Utah, UCLA, USC and Oregon—four squads who have been in the playoff picture. In those four games, he's thrown nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, which is a big split from his 15 touchdown and four interception mark in the first five games of the year.
Current draft projection: second-round pick
Stock Up: Chris Jones, DL, Mississippi State
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Chris Jones has been a guy I've been sitting on for a while, but it's just impossible to ignore him anymore. He's built at 6'6" and 308 pounds, and might he be one of the elite prospects in this class when it's all said and done? Many will connect the schools and say he's a Fletcher Cox-type defensive tackle, but I think there's a better NFL comparison: Sheldon Richardson of the New York Jets.
Jones doesn't win with strength as much as he does with backfield penetration, but he's an absolute freak when he's on. His peaks are better than Leonard Williams' for example, and Williams was taken sixth overall last draft class.
I don't think we've ever seen such a touted defensive lineman go so unnoticed by the majority of the media. Jones was a freshman All-American. He plays in the college football's best conference. His Bulldogs were in the running for the national championship last season. Why isn't anyone talking about the mountain of explosion wearing No. 98 for Mississippi State?
He was only a rotational player up until this season, but he still deserves to be in the conversation with other top-15 prospects. On Thursday against the Missouri Tigers, Jones was the most impressive player on the field during the 31-13 Bulldogs win. He's only posted 2.5 sacks this season, but stats rarely give non-4-3 defensive ends their due.
Make sure to keep tabs on Jones this draft process. Cox was a late riser because he played at Mississippi State, and I would bet their junior defensive lineman is, too.
Current draft projection: first-round pick
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