Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Early 2015-2016 Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Let the rumors fly…as if they haven’t been already.
Following one of the most eventful and entertaining offseasons in recent memory, which was followed by a busy and surprising non-waiver trade deadline, this fall and winter has quite a billing to live up to. Based on the free-agent class and potential trade targets, it is not likely to disappoint.
Because those markets are so rich, and with the influx of television money still impacting payrolls, there is plenty of reason to speculate on players and teams as the free-agency period starts Saturday and the trade market gets simmering.
The difficult part can be sifting through all the rumors and innuendo as things change hourly, if not faster, during this time of year. So, as an early primer to this offseason, we help sort through what is likely to be fact and what is probably fiction as this hot stove season gets underway.
Fact: Jason Heyward Will Get Richest Position Player Contract of Offseason
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Jason Heyward’s star was never higher than his rookie year when he busted into the Atlanta Braves lineup and promised to be one of the sport’s premier players. At that time, heaping truckloads of money onto him seemed inevitable.
Over the next four seasons, Heyward fought injuries and production slides while also solidifying himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the business. In all, though, it seemed unlikely that he had retained the earning potential he had after his rookie year.
This year, his first with the St. Louis Cardinals, Heyward’s career changed course again. He stayed healthy and productive. He finished in the National League’s top 10 in both Fangraphs wins above replacement and the Baseball-Reference model, resurfacing as one of the elite players just in time to cash in at age 26.
It is a rarity that players as young as Heyward hit free agency, and he will benefit from that as his representatives can sell him as a standout player whose best seasons are still to come. That is why projections have him getting as much as $200 million, and it helps him greatly that teams have more appreciation for things like defense and baserunning in this era, and not just home runs and RBIs.
Heyward played under the radar for a few seasons, but he is back to being recognized as one of the game’s best. And he is about to be paid as such.
Fiction: David Price Surpasses $210 Million Contract
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David Price’s contract projections have been going on since 2014, and through this season they have routinely topped $200 million. That seems reasonable considering the deals Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer received in the recent past—both were well beyond $200 million, with Scherzer getting $210 million from the Washington Nationals last winter.
However, Price is fresh off a postseason in which he had a 6.17 ERA and was not entrusted with critical games for the Toronto Blue Jays, who instead turned to Marcus Stroman and Marco Estrada for Game 5 of the American League Division Series and Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, respectively. That “big-game pitcher” is not a tag attached to him could be held against Price in negotiations.
There is also the fact that a deal topping $200 million will have to extend for at least six years, and Price turned 30 in August—Kershaw signed a $214 million extension going into his age-26 season. In an era of depressed offense and front office’s realizing the huge risks in paying pitchers that kind of money into their late 30s, Price becomes slightly less valuable. There is also the fact that some front offices do not think he will live up to such a megadeal, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
He is left-handed. He is an ace. He is durable. And he may very well get to the $200 million mark. He just won’t surpass Scherzer’s deal from the previous offseason.
Fact: Yasiel Puig Trade Talks Take Dominate Winter Meetings
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Two things here: The Dodgers will absolutely listen to trade offers on Yasiel Puig, their star but problematic right fielder. Also, they will not trade him unless they can get full value in return.
Other teams are aware of those facts, and they are also aware that Puig is one of the best players in the game when healthy, which he was not in 2015 and caused him to have subpar numbers. Those teams also know they can afford Puig, who has three years and $19.5 million remaining on his current contract and will be just 25 years old next season.
Puig’s value is low right now because of the injuries that limited him to 79 games and hampered his production, so suitors are not likely to offer the farm for him, but they will probe the Dodgers’ interest during the winter meetings. This is significant because if Puig bounces back next season, even in just the first half, his trade value could skyrocket. Then the trade rumors would be much more believable.
There is a hang-up, though. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote last month that other teams and the Dodgers are getting concerned with Puig’s “thickening” body. Not that Puig is getting fat, but just that he is so muscular—he resembles an NFL linebacker when not in his baggy jersey—it could stifle his explosiveness and fast-twitch muscles.
Puig will only be traded for what the Dodgers deem worthy, but that won’t stop the rumors from flying all around Nashville at the winter meetings.
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Fiction: Brian Cashman, Yankees Stear Clear of Big-Name Free Agents
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The Yankee company line for the last couple offseasons has been frugality and tempered expectations. These are the Yankees, however, and a nine-inning return to the postseason hardly qualifies as a return. Therefore, despite the belief that they will not venture into nine-figure territory for any player, it is difficult to believe the hype.
The roster has needs, but more than $180 million is already committed to 10 players for next season, which is not counting arbitration money. So it would seem spending is severely limited to the likes of second-base options Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick and Ben Zobrist. But if you look forward to next year, you see the team has expiring contracts for Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and possibly CC Sabathia if his vesting option does not kick in.
That means the Yankees should be expected to at least have a seat at the table when names like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes and others come up.
That is not to say the Yankees will sign any of those players, all of which could net $100 million or more. In fact, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe does not expect anything but the most necessary noise from the Yankees this offseason, but this is still the most successful franchise in MLB. Counting them out completely would be foolish.
Fiction: Red Sox Land Their Free-Agent Ace
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The Red Sox made plenty of noise last offseason in signing Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez while also losing out on Jon Lester, their No. 1 pitching target. This offseason won’t be much different in that they will not land the ace so badly needed for its rotation, one of the worst in the American League in terms of run prevention.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already said finding a No. 1 starter is a priority. The Red Sox have to be aggressive in their pursuit of starting pitching this winter, and David Price and Johnny Cueto are possible targets because neither will come with draft-pick compensation since they cannot be made qualifying offers as midseason trade pieces. This is significant because the Red Sox have the No. 12 pick in the amateur draft, which is not a protected pick as are the top 10.
Dombrowski is likely to value the draft picks rather than free agents with qualifying offers and tied to compensation. There is going to be heavy competition to land Price or Cueto, and Zack Greinke, the other ace on the market, has already been said to not want any additional stress or media attention placed on him. Boston would qualify as that for him.
“I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign,” Dombrowski said on WEEI’s Hot Stove Show about parting with the No. 12 pick in order to sign a free agent.
That Dombrowski might not want to lose a pick and given the competition for the likes of Price and Cueto, the Red Sox will again strike out on signing their free-agent ace. That could lead them to part with some of their coveted young talent on the trade market.
Fact: Cespedes, Murphy Won’t Return to Mets
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This is an easy one and can be stuck in the “common baseball knowledge” column at this point. The Mets are not going to get into bidding wars for Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, despite their respective second-half and postseason production.
A team official told ESPN.com's Adam Rubin that it would “modestly pursue” Cespedes, but the team expects him to sign elsewhere as he is looking for a six-year deal. Newsday’s Marc Carig writes that thanks to his postseason outburst Murphy is expected to get at least four years with an average annual value of at least $10 million, numbers the Mets won’t likely match.
The Mets certainly made themselves some money by making the World Series, about $45 million according to a source who spoke to Josh Kosman of the New York Post, but next year also calls for the first of two payment installments the Wilpons, the team’s ownership, owe from their part in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scandal. The total penalty for the Mets is more than $75 million.
That could further hamper the Mets’ spending this offseason, and not just on Cespedes and Murphy.
Fiction: Blue Jays Do Enough to Return to Postseason
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The Blue Jays expect to have Marcus Stroman, a budding front-line pitcher, healthy and leading their rotation next year, but it is likely to take more than that to get the team back into the postseason.
The problem is that the pitching market is almost certainly going to cost more than a handful of years for the first- and second-tier arms. Under former team president Paul Beeston, the Blue Jays had a policy of not offering contracts longer than five years, and new president Mark Shapiro told reporters it was “probably a good stance to take” at his introductory press conference Monday.
It has also been reported that in Shapiro’s only meeting with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, the new president scolded the old GM for trading too many prospects to get David Price and Troy Tulowtizki before the July trade deadline. Shapiro denied the report while also saying he was not absolute on the idea of not offering a free agent more than five years.
Still, it is hard to see the Blue Jays outbidding the field for the top pitching targets this winter.
Fact: Giants Become Major Players in Starting Pitcher Market
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The champagne is not yet dry on the streets of Kansas City yet, but already the San Francisco Giants are said to be interested in several pitching options before free agency even starts.
The team wants to keep its midseason trade acquisition, Mike Leake, and also has interest in Zack Greinke, and according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman the Giants might pursue some combination of two starters on the free-agent market.
The Giants openly pursued Jon Lester last offseason, and while they won’t be as loose-lipped with their courtships this winter, they are expected to be in on not only those two, but potentially David Price and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has already linked the Giants to Jordan Zimmermann.
Rumors or not, expect the Giants to be an active participant in this winter’s pitching market.
Fiction: Marlins Will Have a Major Offseason Impact
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Marlins president David Samson has already muffled expectations by saying the team will not pursue the best starting pitchers on the market, and he added disappointment to the team’s fans by saying ace Jose Fernandez has turned down a long-term extension.
That goes against a report from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman that stated the Marlins will seek another top-end starter to pair with Fernandez, but that kind of confusion seems to be typical of the Marlins.
By the time spring training starts, don’t expect much from the Marlins. Owner Jeffrey Loria is not inclined to spend much money—even Giancarlo Stanton’s extension could be very team-friendly if he takes his opt-out after the 2020 season—and all of the front-line starters in this market are going to cost well more than $100 million.
Fact: Jonathan Papelbon Gets Traded
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Honestly, how can the Washington Nationals justify keeping closer Jonathan Papelbon after he choked superstar franchise player Bryce Harper late last season?
Papelbon has been a malcontent for most of his career, as stellar as it has been on the mound. For a team that is trying to clean up a dysfunctional clubhouse, keeping Papelbon around would go against that goal and leave a ticking time bomb laying around the dugout and clubhouse all summer long.
Papelbon still has plenty of trade value, especially as teams that do not land starting pitching will likely look toward jacking up their bullpens. Before his value drops any further, the Nationals will move him and be happy to do so.
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